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Framing the Debate: Global Climate Models
February 25, 2008A Layman’s Summary of the Scientific Case For and Against Reliance on Global Climate Models:
For those of us who grew up with the Clean Air Act (initially enacted in 1970) that deals with criteria pollutants such as carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, and lead, the emphasis on so-called greenhouse gases1 is a relatively new phenomenon. We have written two articles on the subject that have been published in the Toxics Law Reporter.2 The issue of greenhouse gases is, of course, inextricably tied to the issue of Global Warming (a/k/a Climate Change). In this new era, policymakers at the international, national, regional and state level are currently in the process of considering important measures to address climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. For example, delegates recently met in Bali , Indonesia to begin discussions regarding an agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol after the first commitment period expires at the end of 2012. In addition, the United States Senate is considering federal legislation to cap greenhouse gases, and the Lieberman/Warner Bill recently became the first greenhouse gas cap and trade bill to pass a Senate committee.3 The Western Climate Initiative4 is in the process of developing design recommendations for a regional cap and trade program. The State of California will soon be adopting regulations to implement the California Global Warming Solutions Act.
Policymakers rely in part on climate change models developed by climate scientists in order to decide a variety of policy issues, including, among other things, whether to regulate the emission of greenhouse gases, the amount of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that should be required, the types of carbon sequestration efforts (such as carbon capture and storage, afforestation, reforestation and cropland management) that should be encouraged, and the types of climate change mitigation measures that should be adopted. But, there is admittedly a level of uncertainty involved in climate modeling. Some global climate model predictions carry a greater degree of scientific certainty than others.
After describing some of the basics of climate modeling, this paper summarizes in layman’s terms the scientific case for and the scientific case against reliance on climate models in making policy decisions. The paper does not express an opinion on which is the better case. Rather, it is the role of policymakers to assess the level of certainty that exists in current climate models and to determine whether that level of certainty is sufficient to require action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
To read the entire publication or for a printer-friendly version, please click here.
For more information, please contact:
Steptoe & Johnson LLP
James Derouin
201 East Washington Street, Suite 1600
Phoenix , AZ 85004
Tel.: 602.257.5237
Fax: 602.257.5299
jderouin@steptoe.com
1 Greenhouse gases include both naturally occurring and anthropogenic compounds such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons.
2 James G. Derouin, Fredric D. Bellamy, and Mark E. Freeze, Global Warming Litigation: The Phantom Menace, 21 Toxics Law Reporter 39 (BNA), October 5, 2006; James G. Derouin, Fredric D. Bellamy, and Mark E. Freeze, Climate Change Changes Everything: The Coming Waves of Environmental (Not Personal Injury) Litigation Relating to Global Warming, 22 Toxics Law Reporter 40, October 11, 2007.
3 A cap and trade program is a flexible environmental regulation that sets an overall limit on the emission of a certain pollutant, but allows companies that can easily reduce emissions to sell credits to other companies for which such reduction would be difficult. See James G. Derouin, Fredric D. Bellamy, and Mark E. Freeze, What a Federal Greenhouse Gas Cap and Trade Program Might Look Like: A Summary of the Lieberman/Warner Bill – America’s Climate Security Act of 2007 (S. 2191), November 5, 2007.
4 The Western Climate Initiative is a collaboration which was launched in February 2007 by the Governors of Arizona , California , New Mexico , Oregon and Washington to develop regional strategies to address climate change.
