Overview
On November 9, representatives will gather in Antalya, Türkiye, for the 31st Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The annual meeting is an opportunity for parties (of which there are 198) to assess progress on climate benchmarks, negotiate new commitments and initiatives, and set new goals. As global bandwidth for climate issues continues to falter, parties will bring diverse ambitions to the conference: Türkiye seeks to solidify its role as a regional power player, newly reelected Brazilian President Lula will bring a new mandate to climate talks, and China will look to use the COP platform to frame Western trade barriers as an obstacle for climate commitments. Meanwhile, a financing crunch will constrict ambitious climate finance targets. Read our analysts' takes below.
Anni Coonan, Middle East analyst: COP31 is an opportunity for Ankara to build its reputation
Ankara sees its role as COP host as a new way to establish itself as a global power player. President Erdoğanhas increasingly seen Ankara as taking on a leading role in the region amid the war in Iran (in which Türkiye has played an occasional mediating role), the end of the civil war in Syria (where Türkiye is now the most powerful foreign partner), and the formation of new regional groupings (like the Mecca Pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan). In July, Türkiye hosted the annual NATO summit in Ankara, where it cast itself as an indispensable regional mediator and stabilizing force. COP31 next week will be an opportunity to advance that impression.
Interestingly, Türkiye is technically co-hosting the COP with Australia. During last year’s meeting in Brazil, both countries refused to withdraw their hosting bids despite a political stalemate. Türkiye, whose bid enjoyed less support, argued that it would serve as a key bridge between industrialized and developing nations (and offer ample hotel capacity in Antalya). It was eventually decided that Ankara would be COP31 President, host the summit, and design the Action Agenda (a framework for voluntary commitments involving nonstate actors), while Canberra would own the Negotiating Agenda, the formal state-to-state negotiating track.
Ankara’s priorities in the Action Agenda focus on implementation of existing pledges rather than new ones (potentially part of its push to present itself as a stabilizing force on the world stage). The agenda covers themes including clean energy and electrification, waste and methane reduction, green industrialization, and food security. Türkiye has also outlined plans to launch a Green Industrialization Facilitation Mechanism, aimed at connecting industrialization needs in the least-developed countries to existing financing. For Ankara, success at COP will constitute solidifying its leadership image on the world stage – not any one policy outcome.
Zayna Dembinski, Asia analyst: China will continue to frame Western trade barriers on its clean tech as undermining collective climate goals
China is expected to carry its push against Western clean tech trade restrictions into COP31, building on last year’s efforts to establish trade barriers as a legitimate issue in climate negotiations. At COP30, Beijing was able to successfully include a climate-related “unilateral trade measures” dialogue on its agenda, giving a platform to challenge policies China argues undermine the global energy transition. Ahead of this year’s summit, Vice Minister of Ecology and Environment Li Gao again criticized unilateralism and protectionism, labeling them as the “new challenges” to collective climate action, and called for the free flow of green technologies. The messaging signals Beijing’s intent to continue using COP as a key platform to reframe these commercial disputes with the West on clean tech as a greater problem for global climate governance.
Despite Western trade restrictions, China’s clean tech exports continue to expand, especially in developing markets. A report published yesterday by a researcher at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) underscores the growing global reach of Chinese clean tech: in the first nine months of 2026, exports rose 61% year-on-year for EVs, 45% for wind turbines, 39% for batteries and 22% for solar equipment. The report found that 76% of the lifetime emissions avoided by these exports occurred in the Global South, with South and Southeast Asia accounting for 52%. Pakistan imported more Chinese solar panels than any other country in 2025, demonstrating how affordable Chinese tech can accelerate the energy transition in developing economies. The outcomes strengthen Beijing’s claim that its clean tech manufacturing dominance – accounting for 80% of global solar panels, 60% of wind turbine and 75% of lithium-ion batteries manufacturing – makes China an indispensable climate partner.
Elton Smole, Americas analyst: Brazil brings momentum to climate talks following pivotal presidential elections
After hosting COP30 in the Amazonian city of Belém last year, Brazil will continue to play a leading role in the international climate talks at COP31. This includes carrying forward the legacies of last year’s summit, such as the Global Mutirão decision within the Belém Political Package, which established the Work Program on Climate Finance that took effect in March 2026. The Mutirão decision also resulted in the creation of the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mission to 1.5, which seek to address country-level gaps in ambition and implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions.
The results of Brazil’s October presidential elections create additional momentum by renewing optimism around forest protection. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) was reelected in the October 25 runoff vote, which environmentalists have described as a major victory for the Amazon. Under the leadership of former President Jair Bolsonaro, over 17,000 square miles of forest was cut down. Lula, meanwhile, has committed to achieving net-zero deforestation in Brazil by 2030. Recent data from the Brazilian Space Agency show the lowest levels of deforestation on record.
At COP30, Lula announced the creation of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a fund designed to compensate countries for protecting their forests. The fund was widely supported by governments as well as the private sector and currently stands at $7.8 billion in contributions after a recent €500 million pledge from the Netherlands. With an overall goal of $125 billion, the TFFF aims to reach $10 billion by the end of 2026 to unlock a conditional $3 billion contribution from Norway as well as increased private financing. Pushing the TFFF across this threshold will be a key priority for Brazil at COP31.
Carter Spahn, geoeconomic analyst: Climate finance growth slows as adaptation pressures mount
COP31 inherits ambitious climate finance targets to support mitigation and adaptation in developing countries that remain far from being achieved. COP29 established a goal of at least $300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035, with developed countries taking the lead, within a broader ambition of $1.3 trillion annually from all sources. However, the OECD recorded just $136.7 billion in climate finance provided and mobilized by developed countries in 2024, although its accounting differs. COP30 also called for efforts to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035.
However, the pace of climate financing is slowing. Financing nearly doubled from 2020 to 2024, reaching approximately $2 trillion globally, but estimates suggest growth slowed from 6% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025. Financing remains internal, with around 85% staying within its country of origin in 2024.
Funds for adaptation, a focus of recent COPs, are suffering an imbalance. In 2024, roughly $1.9 trillion was spent on emissions reduction, compared with just $64 billion for adaptation. Flood defenses and disaster preparedness often lack predictable cash flows, making grants and concessional funding essential. Debt burdens and decreasing international aid reduce governments’ capacity to fund that revenue gap.
Amid these constraints, multilateral development banks increased climate commitments by 19% to approximately $163 billion in 2025, including approximately $103 billion to low- and middle-income economies. Because much of this support takes the form of loans, it can increase recipient countries’ debt burdens, particularly when interest rates are high or currency depreciation makes repayment more expensive.
Meeting global emissions targets would require annual mitigation investment to average roughly four times its 2024 level through 2030, which is highly unlikely. As these targets become harder to achieve, COP31 and future summits may place greater emphasis on adaptation and disaster resilience, reflecting a gradual shift from preventing future warming toward managing its consequences.
