Overview
The Israeli Knesset is gearing up for new elections, with a new bill potentially bringing forward the polls, scheduled for October 27, up six weeks. The stakes are unusually high. The polls will be the first since the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, the political and psychological impact of which now dominates Israeli public life. The election is increasingly viewed as a referendum not only on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, but on the future shape of the Israeli state after October 7. The ultra-Orthodox draft exemption crisis has become politically explosive after years of war placed disproportionate burdens on secular and highly religious Israelis. Battles over judicial reform have turned the independence of the Supreme Court into a central campaign issue.
Combined with Netanyahu’s corruption trial, mounting economic strain, uncertainty over Gaza’s future governance, and the ongoing confrontations with Iran and Hizballah, the elections could determine whether Israel’s deeply strained social contract can endure. Despite the existential mood of the issues at hand, however, the fractured political scene means that no party is likely to secure an overwhelming mandate – leading either to deadlock or a continuation of Netanyahu’s government in some form.
Netanyahu and Likud: Strong but Constrained
Benjamin Netanyahu enters the campaign in a paradoxical position: weakened politically, yet still Israel’s single most dominant political figure. Most surveys show Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious coalition falling short of the 61 seats required for a majority. In direct leadership surveys, he still outperforms individual rivals, but head-to-head matchups against former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett are increasingly competitive, reflecting broad voter fatigue with Netanyahu after nearly two decades of political dominance. But Netanyahu retains substantial advantages. He remains the country’s most experienced political operator and continues to benefit from Israel’s security-oriented political culture during wartime.
Yet October 7 fundamentally damaged the image of security competence that anchored his political brand for years. His refusal to establish a formal state commission of inquiry into the attack has alienated many voters, including segments of the traditional Likud base. His ongoing corruption trial also continues to shadow the campaign, while the government’s judicial overhaul agenda - which triggered mass protests even before October 7 - remains deeply divisive. Many Israelis blame Netanyahu for exacerbating internal polarization at a moment of national crisis.
Coalition politics further complicates Netanyahu’s position. His far-right partners, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, strengthen the nationalist bloc but alienate moderate voters and generate international criticism. At the same time, the Haredi parties remain indispensable coalition partners. Together they are projected to win roughly 16–17 seats, but their insistence on preserving broad military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men has become one of the coalition’s greatest vulnerabilities. Public frustration over unequal military service has intensified sharply during the prolonged wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
The Opposition: Bennett Leads, but Fragmentation Persists
The opposition has gradually consolidated around Naftali Bennett, who has emerged as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger after returning from political retirement. Bennett’s “Together” coalition with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid is designed to unite center-right and centrist voters seeking an alternative to Netanyahu without shifting leftward on security. However, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot is gaining momentum and could possibly challenge Bennett for the opposition bloc’s leadership. Eisenkot’s military credentials and reputation for personal integrity give him strong credibility on national security issues, appealing primarily to centrist voters who distrust both Netanyahu and Bennett. While Eisenkot lacks Bennett’s political experience and Netanyahu’s electoral machinery, he remains a potentially decisive coalition player.
Other opposition parties remain relevant but secondary. Benny Gantz’s right-of-center Blue & White, once a leading anti-Netanyahu force, has collapsed in the polls and may struggle to cross the electoral threshold after signaling openness to joining a Netanyahu-led government. Avigdor Lieberman’s right-wing “Yisrael Beiteinu" continues to poll between 9 and 11 seats and could again play kingmaker. Lieberman’s hard line on Haredi military exemptions gives him influence disproportionate to his party’s size. On the left, Yair Golan’s Democrats - a merger of Labor and Meretz - consistently poll around 9–11 seats. The party retains support among liberal and progressive voters but lacks a broader national appeal during wartime.
Arab-majority parties, including Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am, are projected to secure roughly 10 seats combined. Although potentially decisive mathematically, both Netanyahu and Bennett have publicly rejected forming governments dependent on Arab party support. Discussions about reviving the Joint Arab List - which became the Knesset’s third-largest faction in 2015 - could significantly reshape coalition arithmetic.
The Key Issues
While an exact date for elections has not been set yet (either October 27 or September 15), the campaign has begun, and the issues that will dominate the public debate and discourse in the coming months leading up to the elections are clear. These include:
October 7 accountability: The defining issue of the campaign remains responsibility for the failures surrounding the Hamas attack. The opposition has demanded a formal state commission of inquiry. Netanyahu has resisted, preferring narrower internal reviews. For many Israelis, the election is effectively a judgment on Netanyahu’s wartime leadership: the very conflicts that allowed him to project strength have also become the lens through which voters evaluate his failures.
Iran and Hizballah: The wars against Hizballah and Iran have created a politically complex environment for Netanyahu. Most Jewish Israelis supported military action against Iran, reflecting Israel’s broadly hawkish security culture. Yet military escalation has not translated into a clear political dividend for the prime minister. Polling after the Iran ceasefire suggested Netanyahu’s approval ratings actually declined during the conflict.
The opposition argues that while military action may have been necessary, years of strategic mismanagement and political calculations made the wars more dangerous and costly than they needed to be, and that Netanyahu blundered the military achievements and failed to turn them into strategic gains due to his own political considerations.
The Haredi draft crisis: The issue of ultra-Orthodox military exemptions has become perhaps the most volatile question in Israeli domestic politics. For decades, Haredi men received broad exemptions from compulsory military service while pursuing religious study. But after years of prolonged war, growing numbers of secular and traditional Israelis view the arrangement as politically and morally unsustainable. The Supreme Court ruled the existing exemption framework unconstitutional, forcing the government toward legislation that risks either alienating the Haredi parties (a key coalition member for Netanyahu) or provoking broader public backlash.
Judicial reform or overhaul: The Netanyahu government’s efforts to weaken judicial oversight remain deeply polarizing. The judicial overhaul triggered massive nationwide protests before October 7 and continues to symbolize broader concerns about democratic governance and executive power. The opposition frames the issue as a battle over the future of Israeli democracy itself.
Economy and the cost of living: Economic pressures have intensified sharply during wartime. Defense spending surged to roughly 8% of GDP in 2024 and is expected to rise further. Public debt has increased significantly, while inflation, housing costs, and broader cost-of-living concerns continue to strain middle-class Israelis. These economic pressures have weakened public confidence in the government and complicated Netanyahu’s traditional reputation for economic stewardship.
Outlook
Today, Israel’s political system remains locked in a stalemate. Most polls place the Bennett-led opposition bloc at roughly 58–60 seats and Netanyahu’s coalition at 50–52 seats - leaving neither side with a clear path to a governing majority. Arab parties hold key coalition-forming numbers, yet both leading camps publicly reject relying on them to form a coalition. As a result, the most likely post-election scenarios include either prolonged deadlock, another round of elections, or a politically difficult unity arrangement.
Whenever elections occur, for Israelis they are shaping into one of the most consequential contests in the country’s history. The polls are highlighting the major religious, political and sectarian cleavages in Israeli society – issues that, for voters, could threaten the state’s foundational social contract. The implications for Israel's strategic footing and role in ongoing regional conflicts will likely be less than immediately transformative, though. There is a consensus among Israel’s leading parties on the existential necessity of countering Iran, Hamas, Hizballah, and the other Tehran-backed proxies. However, public consideration of the sustainability and benefit of indefinite conflicts on Israel’s borders is shifting. While the underlying assumptions of Israel’s security establishment have not and will not change, strategy may be – with implications for the ongoing global disruption stemming from the region’s hot conflicts.
