What We're Watching Today, August 12, 2024

Overview

What We’re Watching Today is 1,378 words and a 9-minute read.

Global: Iran poses significant foreign threat to US election

The FBI is investigating efforts by Iranian hackers to penetrate internal communications of the Trump and Harris campaigns, with Iran over taking Russia as the pre-eminent threat to the security of US elections.

Our Take: In the US, Iranian influence operations designed to spread discord, risk inflaming an already charged political environment and lingering questions on the integrity of the election process. The risks are not unique to the US. With nearly half of the world’s population heading to the polls in 2024, there are plenty of opportunities for disruption. Bots connected to global networks spreading disinformation and government-led maligned cyber operations seeking to manipulate voters seek to influence voters and erode confidence in electoral integrity. The US government has developed “The Framework to Counter Foreign State Information Manipulation” as a diplomatic engagement tool to deepen cooperation with partners, establish a common operating picture and support more resilient, fact-based information ecosystems. Yet in democracies that value free speech, countering disinformation and misinformation presents risks of accusations of censorship.

Europe: Accusing Ukraine of airspace violation, Belarus increases troops along the border

Accusing Ukraine of sending drones into its airspace, Belarus sent troops to reinforce the border and warned Kyiv that if it happens again, Belarus would expel the Ukrainian diplomatic mission.

Our Take: Since the start of the Ukraine War in 2022, there has been a spillover risk to neighboring states, particularly a risk of Belarus being drawn into the fighting. The Lukashenko government has supported the Russian war effort, short of sending in troops. If the Russian government is unable to repel the current Ukrainian offensive inside the Kursk region, Moscow may press Belarus even harder to fight in support of Russian troops by opening a front on Ukraine’s northern border. But Lukashenko is constrained by strong public opinion against direct involvement and a small percentage of the troops professionally trained and well-equipped. On Friday, the US notched up counter pressure on Belarus, imposing additional sanctions on Belarus’ businesses for sanctions evasion supporting Russian defense requirements.

Middle East: US lifts offensive arms embargo on Saudi Arabia, a sign of the slowly warming relationship

President Biden authorized the sale of air-to-ground munitions to Saudi Arabia, lifting his administration’s years-long suspension of offensive arms sales to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Our Take: The lifting of the embargo is yet another step in Biden’s softening approach towards Saudi Arabia, which started with candidate Biden promising to make the country a “pariah state” and is culminating with the US reportedly considering a defense pact with Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has long been a contentious partner to the US; the lifting of this ban and the potential defense agreement reflects the military realities of the Gulf (where the US position on Yemen’s Houthis, longtime combatants with Saudi Arabia, has hardened as the group has contributed to regional chaos) and US desire to secure a Saudi normalization with Israel (the Kingdom remains the only major Gulf holdout).

Americas: Venezuela moves to quash post-election protests

Venezuelan authorities are targeting anyone perceived to be challenging President Maduro’s disputed reelection in a nationwide sweep called “Operation Knock-Knock.”

Our Take: In an unsurprising move, Venezuelan authorities – directed by the government of autocratic President Maduro, recently reelected in likely fraudulent polls – are attempting to silence what has been a wave of anti-government sentiment following elections and protests in recent weeks. However, the mass arrests (the government says it has arrested more than 2,000 people) are being characterized by human rights groups as “unlike anything the country has seen in recent decades.” The arrests demonstrate the level of discontent in the country, as well as the lengths to which Maduro is willing to go to preserve his presidency.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea and US to start summer military drills to combat North Korean threats

South Korea and the United States announced that they will start their annual joint military exercises next week, emphasizing enhanced cooperation to deter and defend against escalating North Korean nuclear threats.

Our Take: The upcoming joint military exercises could heighten tensions on the Korean peninsula, as North Korea views these drills as preparations for invasion. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has faced pushback from the opposition-controlled National Assembly, with liberals criticizing his agenda as hawkish and calling for stronger efforts to revive dialogue with the North. While the move may further boost Seoul’s deterrence against Pyongyang’s threats of nuclear action, risks remain over a larger confrontation with North Korea breaking out, potentially bolstered by China and Russia supporting Pyongyang, which could attract greater domestic backlash in South Korea to President Yoon and the US-South Korea military alliance.

Africa: Rwanda’s president sworn in to extend lengthy tenure of nearly 25 years

Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame began a new five-year term on Sunday after securing a decisive victory in last month’s election, further extending his nearly 25 years in power.

Our Take: President Kagame’s continued leadership, secured through a highly controversial election, raises concerns about political stability in Rwanda. While his administration has been praised for economic progress and recovery following the Rwandan Genocide, the suppression of dissent and allegations of human rights abuses spell out risks for the future direction of the country. Particularly amid ongoing accusations of Rwandan involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kagame’s continued tenure could attract international scrutiny, affect foreign investment, and exacerbate tensions in a region already fraught with instability.

Trade and Compliance: US tightens sanctions on Lukashenko regime in Belarus

The US Treasury Department on Friday imposed stricter sanctions on Belarus for its military support of Russia, targeting 19 individuals, 14 entities, and Belarusian President Lukashenko’s luxury Boeing 767-32K airliner.

Our Take: The tightening of sanctions on Belarus further isolates the Lukashenko regime by targeting its military assistance to Russia during its war in Ukraine, particularly through the defense and logistics sectors. These measures escalate economic pressure on key Belarusian entities and individuals, increasing the regime’s economic strain, and could potentially lead to retaliatory actions or deepened ties with Moscow. On the other hand, the move could reignite domestic opposition to the Lukashenko regime, potentially coercing the Belarusian president to pivot and balance his country’s support to Moscow against seeking relative rapprochement with Ukraine and Western countries.

Cybersecurity and Technology: UN committee approves first global cybercrime agreement, despite privacy concerns

Nearly 200 nations approved the United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, a global treaty set for ratification soon, which aims to combat internet-related crimes but has raised concerns about potential human rights violations due to its provisions for probing electronic communications and bypassing privacy protections.

Our Take: Privacy rights groups highlight that the approval of the UN Convention against Cybercrime could enable governments to justify intrusive surveillance and repression under the guise of combating cybercrime. While the treaty aims to enhance global cooperation against online criminal activity, its broad language and lack of robust safeguards may be exploited by repressive regimes to target dissent and restrict internet freedoms, potentially leading to widespread abuse and diminished privacy protections.

Climate Change: Residents flee as wildfire rages uncontrolled near Athens

A fire burning out of control has spread into Athens’ suburbs, threatening residences, schools and businesses.

Our Take: Greece has reported above normal temperatures in July and July, with the fire threatening Athens the worst of the year. If the fire reaches central Athens, the risks to life and livelihood grow exponentially. The fires, related to poor air quality and prolonged drought, have placed large portions of the country at Alert Level 5, the highest risk warning.

Read More: Reuters, Neos Kosmos, Greek Reporter