What We're Watching Today, August 16, 2024

Overview

What We’re Watching Today is 1,699 words and an 11-minute read.

Global: New mpox strain discovered in Sweden; governments respond to global public health emergency

Swedish health officials announced that one person who recently traveled to Africa has been infected with clade Ib type of mpox. This is the first case of this strain reported outside of the African continent.

Our Take: Mpox, formerly called monkeypox, is a zonosis, a disease that is transmitted from animals to humans, with cases emerging near tropical rainforests, according to the WHO. The disease can be spread between humans through contact with bodily fluids. Public health officials do not know how long clade Ib has been circulating in parts of central and east Africa. This week, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention declared mpox a continent-wide public health emergency and the WHO declared the outbreak as a health emergency of international concern. While a vaccine is readily available in the West, due to limited financial and infrastructure resources, the vaccine is only now becoming available in key outbreak areas in the DRC and in far from sufficient quantities. The uneven availability of vaccines, surveillance and diagnostic capabilities is a reminder of the risks of weak public health systems to the global population.

Read More: Vox, MedPageToday, World Health Organization

Europe: A Ukrainian covert operation responsible for destruction of Nord Stream pipeline; exposure risks new tensions between Berlin and Kyiv

The Wall Street Journal reported the Ukraine was behind the sabotage operation that blew up the Nord Stream pipeline, citing the results of German police investigation.

Our Take: The destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline in September 2022 removed an important point of Russian leverage against Europe early in the Ukraine War. Moscow could no longer use the pipeline to threaten European energy security, or as a political wedge to divide the EU. Do not expect the EU, and particularly Germany, to be thankful for streamlining their energy options, forcing the EU to reorient its energy relationships and accelerate its clean energy transition. Assuming the Wall Street Journal reporting is accurate, Ukrainian President Zelensky will be able to protect the bilateral relationship by arguing it was a rogue operation. Although the context has changed after two-plus years of fighting, with the EU firmly behind supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression and far less dependent on Russian gas, there are bound to be recriminations.

Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Euronews, War on the Rocks, Radio Free Europe

Middle East: Baghdad-Ankara ties continue to improve

Iraq and Türkiye announced a memorandum of understanding on military, security, and counterterrorism cooperation following a two-day summit in Ankara.

Our Take: Never entirely smooth, Baghdad- Ankara bilateral relations have reached a nadir in recent years, largely over Turkish cross-border operations targeting the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a political group and militia that is banned in Türkiye but that has ties to Iraq’s ethnic Kurdish population. The countries have also clashed over water management, as Iraq is arid and downstream from Turkish dams on the Tigris and Euphrates. Under the terms of renewed relations, which have included several memoranda, Baghdad agreed to ban the PKK in exchange for water concessions, as well as development and oil agreements. For the US, the agreements are a potential bright spot of stability in the region, and a way to further sway Iraq away from its alignment with Iran on some issues.

Americas: Region fears Venezuelan migrant crisis as Maduro cements control

The region fears another mass exodus following President Nicolás Maduro’s contested claim of victory in last month’s Venezuelan election.

Our Take: Over the past decade, between 6 and 7.8 million Venezuelans have fled the country to escape Maduro’s authoritarian rule, a major contributor to surging – and increasingly dangerous – migration flows into the US. A survey in July found that 17% of Venezuelans planned to leave the country within 6 months if Maduro won, a potential outflow of more than 4 million people. This surge could further stress the US’ southern border at a sensitive political moment, but in addition place further pressure on Central American countries that have absorbed the bulk of South American migrants aiming at the US.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s Yoon offers new channel for dialogue and path toward unification with the North

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol proposed on Thursday a working-level body with North Korea for easing tensions and resuming economic cooperation, outlining a vision for reunification based on mutual freedom and democracy, despite Pyongyang's earlier designation of Seoul as a hostile country and abandonment of unification.

Our Take: South Korean President Yoon's proposal to de-escalate tensions and resume economic cooperation with North Korea, despite his conservative background, is reminiscent of the Sunshine Policy employed by past liberal presidents. But his simultaneous suggestion of an international conference on North Korea's human rights and increased access for North Koreans to outside information has been criticized by the main opposition Democratic Party as war-instigating. For this reason, Yoon’s outreach may also be viewed with skepticism by Pyongyang, especially as Kim Jong-un had renounced reunification earlier this year.

Read More: Nikkei Asia [paywall], Reuters, Crisis Group, 38 North

Africa: Famine in Sudan reaches a breaking point as peace talks stall

The United States initiated new peace talks in Geneva on Wednesday to resolve Sudan's civil war, a major contributor to a severe famine threatening millions, but hopes for an immediate ceasefire were dashed as the Sudanese military, a key party in the conflict, did not participate in the discussions.

Our Take: The US State Department stated that, despite the Sudanese military's non-participation, peace negotiations to end Sudan's civil war will persist, reinforced by Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s call with Sudan's de-facto ruler Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Wednesday. However, the current lack of progress illustrates a diminished US role in resolving the conflict. The inability of a US-led efforts to bring peace could pave the way for China, which has been expanding its diplomatic influence across Africa and the Middle East, to intervene amidst growing international concern over the escalating famine and regional instability.

Trade and Compliance: Senators call on Biden administration to improve foreign-owned land disclosure process

A bipartisan group of 14 US senators sent a letter on Monday to the US Department of Agriculture that urged the agency to modernize and streamline the government’s processes in tracking the foreign acquisition of US farmland, reflecting growing Congressional concerns over foreign, particularly Chinese, purchases of US agricultural land in recent years.

Our Take: Foreign ownership in US agricultural land grew to more than 40 million acres by the end of 2021, according to USDA estimates, and while China owned less than one percent, lawmakers cite national security concerns as a reason to improve tracking processes. The US GAO earlier this year found that USDA data current through 2021 contained errors in registering foreign farmland ownership, leaving uncertainties over the location and exact amount of land under Chinese control. The possibility that Beijing is acquiring land near US military installations outside of Washington’s oversight has become a political hotbed amid rising US-China tensions. As evidence of this, legislative efforts have amplified in recent years to restrict foreign land ownership, with over half of all US states enacting such laws.

Energy Transition: Mega batteries to power Maine grid with novel iron-air technology

Energy startup Form Energy, recipient of funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, plans to install a power plant to inject 85 megawatts of power into the Maine grid, with sustainable discharge for up to 100 hours, using its new technology of iron-air batteries.

Our Take: Utility-scale batteries are revolutionizing the management of electricity. Wind and solar power generation systems are inefficient without the means to balance supply and demand, needed for a stable electric grid. According to the International Energy Agency, battery storage drew the most investments for commercially available energy technology in 2023. The iron-air battery appears to offer one key advantage over alternative technologies (lithium-ion, lead-acid and nickel cadmium batteries): low fire risk and environmental hazards.

Read More: Canary, PBS, International Energy Agency

ESG: Missouri rule preventing factoring ESG into investing advice struck down amid patchwork of nationwide ESG disputes

A Missouri federal judge struck down a rule limiting financial professionals from considering ESG factors in giving investment advice, saying it imposed requirements on banks that do not exist in federal law.

Our Take: The Missouri decision is part of an ongoing, multi-front contest over if and how corporations and individuals may factor ESG considerations into investment advice and decisions. Anti-ESG investing bills and rules in red states (about a hundred in H1 of 2024) and pro-ESG investing initiatives in blue states continue to bump up against each other in federal courts, although the rate of laws actually passed and applied is fairly low. Even as lawmaker appetite to enact new legislation seems to dampen in an election year, a patchwork of state-level rules continues to develop.

Read More: Reuters, S&P Global, Ropes & Gray