Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,261 words and an 8-minute read.
Global: The Islamic State claims responsibility for terrorist attack in German city
German police detained a 26-year-old Syrian national for a stabbing attack that killed three and wounded eight in western German city of Solingen.
Our Take: The Islamic State, in a posting on Telegram, characterized the operation as an attack on a Christian gathering and carried out in revenge for the Muslims in Palestine and elsewhere. As early as late November 2023, European security officials started warning about increased risks from lone wolf attacks by individuals radicalized by the Israel-Hamas war. Intelligence agencies increased surveillance of Islamic militants but radicalization can be difficult to uncover prior to the actual attack. Additionally, Europe is experiencing a stark rise in hate incidents and hate speech, targeting Jewish and Muslim communities and immigrants.
Read More: Reuters, Deutsche Welle, Lawfare
Europe: French cybersecurity police arrest Telegram messaging app CEO
French police arrested Pavel Durov, a Russian billionaire and founder of the Telegram messaging app as part of an investigation into criminal activity on the app and lack of Telegram’s cooperation with police and content moderation.
Our Take: The arrest of Durov has already triggered critical responses from the Russian government, with the foreign ministry accusing the West of having double standards on free speech, having criticized Moscow for blocking Telegram in 2018 after the company allegedly refused to provide Russian intelligence with backdoor access to encrypted messages. Deputy State Duma Speaker Vladislav Davankov accused France of political motivations, seeking to gain access to personal information of Telegram users. To add a layer of complication, Durov relocated his company to the United Arab Emirates and became an Emirati and French citizen. On the stated reasons for the arrest, cyber security professionals have long been warning that Telegram has become a cybercrime domain.
Read More: Reuters, The Moscow Times, US Cybersecurity Magazine, CPO Magazine
Middle East: Israel and Hizballah exchange attacks
Israel and Hizballah exchanged major attacks over the weekend, although the bombardments resulted in relatively few casualties and limited damage.
Our Take: If this was the promised Lebanese retaliation against Israel for the airstrikes that killed a senior Hizballah leader in Lebanon, the region will have gotten off fairly easy. While the attacks were significant shows of force (Hizballah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel as around 100 Israeli warplanes struck targets in Lebanon), the relatively low casualties could allow both sides to return to their pattern of lower-level skirmishes without losing face. Of course, further attacks could take place: Hizballah leaders said Sunday’s round was “preliminary.” Also, the region still awaits Iran’s reprisals for the Israeli strike that killed a senior Palestinian leader in Tehran, an event that the country previously signaled would not take place during ceasefire negotiations, but that could significantly raise the temperature of the region.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Foreign Policy [paywall]
Americas: Obrador’s Morena secures supermajority in lower house
Mexico’s governing party, left-wing Morena, secured a two-thirds super majority in the country’s lower house, but fell just short of a super majority in the Senate. The bodies are expected to approve outgoing President Obrador’s proposed constitutional changes, including controversial judicial reforms.
Our Take: The landslide victory of Morena all but ensures the smooth passage of Obrador’s controversial judicial reform, which would dismiss all federal judges (including the Supreme Court) and make the positions popularly elected. Currently, federal judges and judicial staff are striking against the measure, but Obrador – and his successor, President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, also of Morena – appear undeterred.
Read More: Reuters, Los Angeles Times [paywall], BNN Bloomberg
Asia-Pacific: North Korea tests exploding drones
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a demonstration of new exploding drones successfully destroying test targets, and urged researchers to integrate artificial intelligence into the unmanned vehicles, state media reported on Monday.
Our Take: North Korea’s development and successful testing of suicide drones present a significant escalation in its military capabilities. By integrating artificial intelligence and expanding the use of these drones in various military applications, Pyongyang is enhancing its tactical options and signaling its intention to keep pace with modern warfare trends seen in conflicts such as Ukraine. This development also underscores North Korea’s deepening military ties with Russia and Iran, as evidenced by the visual similarities between its drones and those used by these countries. These advancements could lead to a more volatile security environment in the Korean Peninsula, as both South Korea and the United States are likely to increase their own defense measures in response, potentially feeding fuel to an arms race in the region.
Read More: NBC News, Reuters, NK News
Africa: First batch of mpox vaccines to arrive in Africa amid new outbreak
The first 10,000 mpox vaccines are set to arrive in Africa next week, where a new, dangerous strain of the long-standing virus has recently raised global concern.
Our Take: The delayed arrival of mpox vaccines in Africa highlights significant shortcomings in global health equity, affected by bureaucratic red tape within the World Health Organization (WHO). The slow response in approving vaccines for low-income countries, already abundant in wealthier nations, echoes the inequities seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. This delay underscores the urgent need for reforms within global health systems to expedite vaccine distribution and access, especially in regions where infectious diseases have long been endemic. Looking ahead, there is potential for improvement as the WHO pledges to streamline procedures and as African vaccine manufacturing increases, which could help prevent future health crises from disproportionally impacting vulnerable populations.
Read More: Reuters, New York Times [paywall], UN News, Chatham House
Trade and Compliance: Canada aligns with the US to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs
Canada announced on Monday that it will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicle imports, aligning with US tariffs and following similar measures by the European Commission.
Our Take: Canada’s decision to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports aligns its trade policy with the US and European Union, reinforcing a united Western stance against China’s alleged anti-competitive practices in the automotive sector. Similar to the US and EU, Canada’s move is intended to protect its investments in domestic EV and battery production, ensuring that substantial government subsidies are not undermined by cheaper Chinese imports. However, the risk of escalating trade tensions with China remains, which may retaliate against Canadian agricultural exports. The Canadian government will also need to monitor the potential impact the tariffs may have in increasing vehicle prices and impeding the broader adoption of EVs in Canada, while affecting the country’s environmental goals.
Read More: Associated Press, Brookings Institution, Atlantic Council
Energy Transition: Growing demand for plug-in hybrid cars
The auto industry in the US is finding growing demand for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which provide an alternative pathway for buyers not ready to transition to fully electric vehicles.
Our Take: Although not a new technology, plug-in hybrid cars are gaining consumer attention because they can be less expensive and provide more comfort to buyers worried about finding EV charging stations when on longer road trips. However, for reducing emissions, they are only as effective as the driver’s commitment to regularly charge them and drive on electric power. Plug-ins have lagged behind hybrid-electric and fully electric vehicle sales. According to the International Energy Agency, while more EV models of all types are becoming available, they are trending towards larger vehicles. To get to a mass-market tipping point, smaller and more affordable models are needed, along with addressing range and charging infrastructure.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], International Energy Agency, Green Car Reports
