Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,500 words and a 9-minute read.
Global: Mpox strain is mutating as it spreads; scientists lack surveillance and diagnostic resources
Doctors are concerned that they do not understand sufficiently the transmission dynamics, severity and risk factors.
Our Take: Mpox in the past spread from human contact with infected animals. Infections from the strains in the current outbreak, clade Ib and IIb, are believed to be sexually transmitted among humans, but the infections found among children suggest spread through close contact with an infected individual. The eastern Congo remains the center of the outbreak, with infections elsewhere in Africa and globally traceable to travel to the outbreak area. Mpox risks further spread and mutation as long as it remains uncontrolled in the Congo. The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control assesses the risks of infection as low to moderate in affected areas on the African continent and low within Europe as long as care is taken to avoid afflicted communities.
Read More: Reuters, World Health Organization, European Center for Disease Prevention and Control
Europe: Ukraine pleads with Western supplier to lift restrictions on missiles
After the biggest aerial bombardment of the war, Ukrainian President Zelensky calls on western supporters to lift restrictions on the use of long-range missiles to strike military and industrial targets inside Russia.
Our Take: Russia’s latest onslaught against Ukraine is enabled by new supplies of missiles from Iran. Russia is targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure to impose pain over the upcoming winter, in addition to military sites. Ukraine does not have enough air defense systems to protect all Ukrainian cities. Western governments are divided over lifting restrictions, with the UK and France supportive, while the US and Germany are opposed. The opposition is rooted in concerns that NATO will be drawn directly into the war. Russia is playing on these concerns, warning the US that it risks World War III. The US plans to send additional missile defense systems, but Ukraine wants to seize the offensive. The disagreement risks unilateral actions by NATO members, which could either call Russia’s bluff, or provoke an escalation.
Read More: Reuters, Wall Street Journal [paywall], Reuters, Financial Times [paywall]
Middle East: Iran suggests nuclear talks with US may be on the table
Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei released a new video suggesting that Tehran may seek renewed nuclear negotiations with the US, saying that there is “no barrier” to such talks.
Our Take: While backchannel discussions between the US and Iran have occurred intermittently throughout President Biden’s tenure, it is unclear if Iran’s call is genuine or if there is any real chance for renewed negotiations to be successful. These comments may be in line with newly-elected moderate President Pezeshkian’s calls for Iran to seek an agreement with the US that could ease Western sanctions on the country, or driven by a desire to attempt a more favorable deal ahead of the November elections that could put Iran hawk President Trump back in the White House. On the one hand, Biden officials in late 2023 seemed to signal that the nuclear deal was fully dead and the time hardly seems ripe for renewed talks as the region teeters on the brink, although Biden has put sanctions on the table in 2023 hostage talks – and may seek to make use of a lame duck period.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], Foreign Affairs [paywall], The Conversation
Americas: Mexico scolds US and Canada for criticizing judicial reform
Mexican President Obrador said that he would “pause” relations with US and Canadian embassies after both countries criticized his judicial reform plan as potentially dangerous for Mexican democracy.
Our Take: Obrador’s planned reform has already taken significant international heat. The reform would make all of Mexico’s federal judges popularly elected, and remove all incumbents – including the Supreme Court – to start. It has garnered significant pushback, including a federal court strike, from critics who say the plan would destabilize Mexico’s systems of checks and balances and degrade the country’s democracy. Although Obrador is in his lame duck period, his successor and mentee Claudia Sheinbaum has made no signal that she intends to walk back the planned reform. Obrador’s move to punish the US and Canada for criticizing his plan further demonstrates that his administration is not willing to reconsider.
Read More: Associated Press, The Hill, Wilson Center
Asia-Pacific: Top US and China officials to meet in Beijing to discuss bilateral issues
US President Joe Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is set to engage in several days of discussions with top Chinese officials in Beijing this week, with the goal of easing tensions between the two superpowers ahead of the November 5 US election.
Our Take: Jake Sullivan's visit to Beijing represents a cautious step towards détente in US-China relations, rather than a full alignment of strategic goals. The discussions, while aiming to manage tensions, particularly in areas like military-to-military communications and trade disputes, highlight the ongoing and deep-seated disagreements between the two superpowers. This engagement could lead to a temporary easing of hostilities, but significant strategic divergences—such as those over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and trade policies—are likely to persist, indicating that any cooperation will be limited and tactical rather than transformative.
Read More: Reuters, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Quincy Institute
Africa: WFP to investigate its operations in Sudan as famine worsens
The UN World Food Program (WFP) launched a probe into two senior officials in Sudan for alleged fraud and hiding information from donors regarding their capacity to provide food aid during the country’s severe hunger crisis, according to 11 informed sources.
Our Take: The investigation into alleged misconduct by senior WFP officials in Sudan could significantly impact ongoing initiatives to deliver peace in Sudan. If the allegations of fraud and mismanagement are confirmed, they may undermine trust in the WFP’s ability to effectively deliver aid, potentially exacerbating the severe food crisis and prolonging the civil war in the country. Furthermore, the probe risks complicating the already fraught logistics of aid distribution, as warring factions may exploit the situation to hinder assistance, worsening the humanitarian catastrophe and stalling peace efforts.
Read More: Reuters, Brookings Institution
Trade and Compliance: Indian solar panels under US scrutiny over potential forced labor links
US Customs and Border Protection seized nearly $43 million in electronics shipments from India since October under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), highlighting a new enforcement priority.
Our Take: The detention of Indian electronics shipments under the UFLPA is significant, not only because it marks the first instance of such action against India but also because it occurs amidst a period of relative economic rapprochement between India and China this year. This development could hinder Indian producers' efforts to position themselves as alternatives to Chinese manufacturers, especially in the US solar market. Moreover, it underscores the complexities of New Delhi's determination to maintain an independent foreign policy, which could potentially impact its growing diplomatic and economic ties with the United States, particularly as India navigates its relationship with China.
Read More: Reuters, Brookings Institution
Energy Transition: US clean energy jobs grew at double the rate of other jobs
The Energy Department reported that jobs in the US clean energy industry outpaced all other jobs for the first time in 2023.
Our Take: US legislation and private-sector investments are driving growth in the clean energy industry. Growing unionization rates reflect the development of new career paths in clean energy which the Energy Department interprets as one indicator that the sector will have sustained growth. Downside risks of unsustainable growth in manufacturing and construction related to clean energy, however, remain, should the US government walk back from its current policy of subsidies for clean technology, particularly for EVs, green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. Per analysis by energy analytics company Wood Mackenzie, policy changes rolling back support for low-carbon energy would have the larger impact of adding 10 years to the timeline for the US for energy transition and put current net zero targets out of reach.
Read More: Reuters, Wood Mackenzie
