Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,177 words and a 7-minute read.
Global: US calls for de-escalation while deploying more military assets; risks of escalation are high
After the Pentagon announced it would deploy additional fighter jets and warships, the White House characterized the move as defensive, with a goal of de-escalating tension.
Our Take: The Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last week in Iran has injected uncertainty on the direction of the low intensity conflict between Israel and Iran, which until now has largely played out with Iranian proxies. The deployment of US forces is intended to demonstrate that the US plans to protect Israel and is projecting escalation superiority to strengthen deterrence and stop a regional war. However, Iran has proved willing to act directly and through its proxies, and not just in the Middle East. Furthermore, Iran may choose not to respond immediately, but pick the place and time which would suit its strategic objectives. Escalation also depends on what Israel does next, particularly in the war in Gaza, where it has an option of de-escalating by moving forward on a ceasefire.
Read More: Reuters, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Wilson Center
Europe: UK police deploy in force to contain violent anti-immigration protests
Violent anti-immigration protests in multiple UK cities have stunned the new government and led to the arrest of nearly 150 people and injuries among the police force.
Our Take: Immigration policy is a divisive issue in the UK, with a substantial segment of the population believing that the UK government has not done enough to curb illegal immigration. Supporters of Brexit in the run up to the decision to leave the EU argued exit would give Britain greater control over immigration policy. But leaving the EU also meant that the UK no longer had the legal means of returning asylum-seekers to the European continent under the so-called Dublin agreement. The UK government’s response that “thuggery” will not be tolerated does not address the root of the crisis feeding on economic grievances, risking continued street clashes.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], The Economist [paywall]
Middle East: Iraqi militias may be stepping up attacks against US forces
Several Americans were injured in a rocket attack on a US base in Iraq’s western desert.
Our Take: This latest attack mirrors a pattern of attacks against the US’s Ain al Asad Air Base by Iran-backed Iraqi militias that have ramped up following the outbreak of violence in Gaza. It was unclear if today’s attack was a continuation of longstanding attacks, aimed at raising costs for the US presence in Iraq by militias who oppose that presence, or a sign of escalation in retaliation for Israel strikes on Hamas and Hizballah leaders in recent days. Heightened violence by Iraqi militias is a less-watched potential flashpoint in the looming regional conflict.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], Quincy Institute, Washington Post [paywall]
Americas: Colombia’s Total Peace policy continues to falter
Colombia’s army renewed military operations in its years-long battle with the ELN, days after a six-month ceasefire expire due to a breakdown in talks.
Our Take: Colombia has been intermittently at war with the country’s last guerrilla group for decades, although the group has been involved in stop-and-start peace negotiations with the Petro government since the president came to power in 2022 with the campaign promise of “total peace.” Past talks have broken down due to the group’s radical positions, a diffuse chain of command and dissent within its ranks. Meanwhile, the ELN has resumed its kidnapping practice – among its most feared practice and a major element of its financing – and prospects for a breakthrough on a lasting peace remain dim.
Read More: Reuters, United States Institute of Peace, American Enterprise Institute
Asia-Pacific: Bangladesh’s prime minister resigns and flees the country amid historic protests
On Monday, amidst escalating violence that marks some of the most severe since its inception over fifty years ago, Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country, with Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman declaring her resignation on national television and announcing the formation of a provisional government.
Our Take: The resignation and exile of Bangladesh’s prime minister spells uncertainty for the future direction of the nation, although the announcement of an interim government indicates a desire for the Bangladeshi political establishment to carry out a stable power transition. With Hasina landing in India and reportedly planning to apply for asylum in the UK, the situation poses a risk to the stability of the South Asian region. Additionally, it carries the potential for economic disruption, as evidenced by the indefinite suspension of garment factories and railway services, key sectors in Bangladesh's economy.
Read More: Reuters, Reuters, Firstpost, BBC
Trade and Compliance: EU members set to back tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
The EU will significantly increase import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), a decision that will take effect this Friday and be finalized in four months.
Our Take: The EU's decision comes amid a broader trade dispute with China and raises concerns about potential risks of economic fallout in the domestic auto industries of certain member states, such as Germany. The increased duties could potentially escalate trade tensions between the EU and China, and also lead to higher prices for consumers and impact the market share of Chinese EV manufacturers. On the other hand, upside risks include European automakers gaining the opportunity to increase their competitiveness in the EV sector, aiding the continent’s green energy ambitions in the long-run.
Read More: Euronews, Financial Times [paywall], Atlantic Council
Disruptive Technology: Semiconductor group urges EU to minimize restrictions on outbound investment
SEMI Europe, a semiconductor industry group, urged the European Union on Monday to minimize restrictions on foreign computer chip technology investments by companies within the bloc.
Our Take: SEMI Europe's appeal to the EU suggests concerns over potential barriers to cross-border cooperation and information sharing. The group fears that overly broad policies could compel companies to reveal sensitive business information and could hinder the agility and relevance of European semiconductor companies, potentially affecting their competitiveness in the global market. Meanwhile, the EU's consideration of a law to screen inbound foreign investments that may pose security risks indicates a growing trend of tightening control over international technological trade and investments, as seen by the similar moves taken by the US.
Read More: Reuters, Forbes [paywall], Reuters
Climate Change: Wildfires torch 4.5 million acres this year; smoke travels hundreds of miles posing health risks
The fire season has been particularly intense this year and shows no signs of letting up, with nearly 90 large fires currently buring across the US.
Our Take: Once again, this year’s fire activity is above average, with the destruction surpassing all of 2023. The peak of the season is yet one month away. Wildfire smoke can reach far away from where fires burn and can make people sick, especially those with repertory conditions such as asthma, pregnant women and children. People living in areas of wildfires should take protective measures to mitigate against health risks.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
