Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,229 words and an 8-minute read.
Global: The planned delivery to Russia of hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles bodes new escalation
According to European intelligence sources, Russian military personnel are in Iran, training to use Fath-360 close range ballistic missile systems that are scheduled to be shipped to Russia soon for use against Ukraine.
Our Take: The military-to-military relationship between Iran and Russia has been growing over the past year, with the provision of Fath360 close range ballistic missile systems representing a major escalation. Once integrated into Russian units, Ukraine will be at risk of escalating tempo and destructiveness of Russian assaults. NATO will likely respond with additional capabilities to boost missile defense, perpetuating the escalatory cycle of the war.
Read More: Reuters, Stimson Center, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Europe: The EU supports Ukraine’s right to hit targets in Russia
Following Ukraine’s cross border incursion into Kursk, European Commission spokesperson Peter Stano said that Ukraine has a legitimate right to defend itself and is entitled to hit the enemy wherever it finds necessary, including inside Russia.
Our Take: While this is not the first time that Ukraine has conducted cross border attacks into Russia, the context is shifting, with NATO members providing military assistance with longer range capabilities, such as F-16s, and the US deploying long-range missiles to Germany. Russia does not want a war with NATO, but will seek to boost its deterrence posture, which could lead to further escalations.
Read More: Euronews, NBC, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Middle East: US, Qatar and Egypt call for renewed ceasefire negotiations despite weeks of escalation
The US, Qatar and Egypt – the countries that have been leading Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations – issued a new statement calling on both parties to return to the negotiating table on August 15.
Our Take: The proposal, which Israel quickly agreed to, comes after several weeks of pause in which regional escalation has amped up. Israeli strikes killed Hamas’ political chief in Iran and a senior Hizballah leader in Lebanon, prompting Iran to threaten larger-scale retaliation and for Hamas to appoint a senior military strategist, rumored to be largely responsible for the October 7 attack, to its top political post. While Hamas is somewhat motivated to achieve a ceasefire – the humanitarian situation in Gaza grows more dire every day – its position has hardened due to recent events, and the window for ceasefire negotiations may be closing. If Hamas does attend, the new political leader is rumored to be less open to any stipulations that benefit Israel.
Read More: Washington Post [paywall], Middle East Eye, New York Times [paywall]
Americas: Obrador signals willingness to moderate judicial reform plan
Mexico’s Morena, party of President Obrador and President-elect Sheinbaum, is reportedly considering amendments to a controversial proposed judicial reform after the market appeared spooked. Changes could include staggering the election of judges.
Our Take: The original proposal by outgoing President Obrador would have made all federal judgeships, including those on the Supreme Court, elected via popular vote, a proposition that spooked investors and critics who worried the change could allow instant politicization and instability of the judicial branch, weakening Mexico’s checks and balances. While President-elect Sheinbaum has promised to push ahead with the reform, it remains controversial. Obrador’s moderation could ease the effects somewhat, although the ultimate result will likely still occur.
Read More: Reuters, Wilson Center
Asia-Pacific: Indonesia and Japan agree to reduce trade barriers
Indonesia announced on Thursday that it has reached an agreement with Japan to amend an economic pact, aimed to lower or eliminate trade barriers and expecting the changes to enhance bilateral trade.
Our Take: The amendments to the Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) present significant opportunities for two of Asia’s largest economies by expanding market access and reducing trade hurdles, particularly in key sectors such as automotive and food products. With this agreement, both Tokyo and Jakarta demonstrate their desire to play more active roles in regional economic affairs. While the amended IJEPA may increase competition for US and Western businesses in the Asia-Pacific region, it could also serve to address Washington’s strategic aims of minimizing Chinese influence, particularly in Southeast Asia.
Read More: Reuters, Nikkei Asia [paywall], Lowy Institute
Trade and Compliance: US bans imports from five more Chinese companies over forced labor concerns
On Thursday, the US banned imports from five additional Chinese companies due to alleged human rights abuses against the Uyghurs, as part of its ongoing effort to remove forced labor goods from the US supply chain.
Our Take: Washington’s targeting of additional Chinese companies, particularly those involved in critical industries like rare earth metals and mining, reflects US policymakers’ determination to continue ramping up pressure on Beijing’s human rights record and hedging economic risks. Companies with supply chains connected to China may face increased scrutiny and disruptions, requiring them to reassess their sourcing strategies to mitigate compliance risks and maintain market access. As a result, there will be further incentive for these firms to map their supply chains and root out potential links to Chinese companies accused of forced labor, to ensure compliance with US law.
Read More: Reuters, US Department of Homeland Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Climate Change: Great Barrier Reef endangered by rising ocean temperature
In new research, Australian scientists warn that water temperatures around Australia’s Great Barrier Reef are the warmest in 400 years, threatening the reef’s future as the world’s largest living ecosystem.
Our Take: The mass bleaching of coral reefs is a phenomenon being observed around the world, as sea temperatures rise and the marine ecosystem signals distress. The report’s release coincides with the release of the monthly report by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which advises that July was the second hottest for the planet on record.
Read More: Reuters, Copernicus, Nature
ESG: SEC defends climate disclosures
The SEC is defending its new climate reporting rule in court against arguments that the rules are too onerous and expensive, arguing that proposed disclosures provide “information directly relevant to the value of investments,” and that is within the SEC’s scope of authority.
Our Take: The SEC is defending against a series of legal challenges to the new rule, which was released in March and for the first time established requirements for public companies to disclose climate risks facing their businesses and plans to address them. Opponents argue that the rule is too onerous and expensive, that the information requested is overly speculative, and that the rule exceeds the SEC’s authority. Despite opposition, Biden’s SEC has appeared steadfast about disclosure rules, and a potential President Harris will likely seek to continue to build upon them.
Read More: ESG Today, Environmental Defense Fund
