Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,308 words and an 8-minute read.
Global: Norway asserts control over sale of land on strategic Svalbard island; measures reflect increased geopolitical risks
The Norwegian government imposed security controls on the sale of privately-owned property on Svalbard to protect the strategic islands amid concerns over increasing activity from Russia and China in the Arctic Ocean.
Our Take: As of 2022, China has invested over $90 billion within the Arctic Circle in energy and mineral sectors. In 2018, the Chinese government published an Arctic Strategy outlining plans for a Polar Silk Road and declared itself a “near-Arctic state.” While Chinese investment was initially welcome, the changing geopolitical context has led Arctic nations other than Russia to more closely scrutinize Chinese investment through a national security lens, resulting in the cancellation of multiple projects.
Read More: Financial Times [paywall], Center for Strategic and International Studies, The Arctic Institute
Europe: Russian plotting to topple Ukrainian government; long term risks to Ukrainian democracy
Ukrainian intelligence reported yet another disrupted Russian plot to foment unrest and topple the Zelensky government.
Our Take: After the failed attempt to decapitate the Ukrainian government by assassinating President Zelensky during the initial invasion in February 2022, it is not surprising that Russian security services have continued to plot assassination and foment civil unrest. Ukrainian resilience, however, has been remarkable. Zelensky remains popular among Ukrainian voters, as does continuing resistance to Russian occupation. As the war grinds on, Ukrainians will need to move beyond survival to resiliency and recovery, with a shared vision and strategy for their national future, so that Ukraine’s call for freedom and democracy has a deep and wide foundation.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Middle East: Iranian presidential election goes to runoff; moderate has a real chance
Iran’s presidential election is headed for a runoff between a religious hardliner closely associated with Ayatollah Khameini and the race’s sole moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian, after Pezeshkian narrowly beat the former in snap elections last week. Second round elections could either see conservatives consolidating around the victorious conservative candidate, or spurring more turnout from disillusioned younger voters to support a viable moderate candidate.
Our Take: A moderate victory could soften Iran towards the West, but policy is unlikely to change significantly as ultimate decision-making power resides with the ayatollah. The president has control over some domestic policies and financial decisions, both portfolios that could quell rising anti-government sentiment over the enforcement of religious conduct rules and increasingly miserable domestic economic situation amid western sanctions and broadening war in the region.
Read More: Washington Post [paywall], The Economist [paywall]
Americas: Hurricane Beryl makes landfall in the Caribbean
Hurricane Beryl, an extremely powerful storm, made landfall on the Caribbean island of Carriacou early Monday. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and lower-level storm warnings are active for St. Lucia, Martinique, Trinidad, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica, and the storm is projected to eventually reach Mexico as a Category 1.
Our Take: Hurricane Beryl has become the earliest Category 4 storm to ever develop this early in the Atlantic storm season, fueled by record warm waters due to climate change and an El Nino season. The storm is a potent reminder of what may come as escalating climate change increasingly impacts weather patterns worldwide.
Read More: Associated Press, Reuters, Time Magazine
Asia-Pacific: Philippines signals readiness to discuss South China Sea issues with Vietnam
The Philippines expressed appreciation for Vietnam’s acknowledgement of its UN filing to assert rights over an extended continental shelf in the South China Sea and is prepared to engage in discussions with Hanoi to address any concerns, according to its foreign ministry.
Our Take: Growing alignment between the Philippines and Vietnam on the South China Sea could intensify the strategic competition between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific as both countries seek to consolidate alliances and partnerships in the region. The prospect of mutual cooperation between Hanoi and Manila on South China Sea issues could bolster US efforts to counter China’s influence in Asia and strengthen its Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy, challenging Beijing’s regional dominance. The Philippines is a key American ally in the region while Washington has been keen to court Vietnam as a partner in recent years, given the Southeast Asian country’s rocky relationship with Beijing.
Read More: Reuters, United States Institute of Peace, Crisis Group, Council on Foreign Relations
Africa: South Africa forms unprecedented new multiparty cabinet
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa formed an unprecedented power-sharing cabinet that includes seven different parties after the African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority in the landmark election result of late May.
Our Take: The inclusion of seven parties in South Africa’s new coalition government marks a significant shift in its political landscape, with the ANC setting aside long-standing differences with opposition parties to share power. This unprecedented alliance introduces risks of political instability, as deep ideological divides and racial tensions may hinder effective governance in a country experiencing stark social and economic divides following the end of Apartheid. The coalition’s ability to address South Africa’s severe socioeconomic challenges will be critical in maintaining both domestic and international confidence in the new government.
Read More: Associated Press, Chatham House, Washington Post [paywall]
Trade and Compliance: EU announces new sanctions on Hamas financiers
On Friday, the European Union imposed asset freezes and visa bans on several firms and individuals alleged to have financed the Palestinian militant group Hamas, marking the second round of sanctions following the October 7 attack on Israel.
Our Take: The EU’s latest sanctions targeting Hamas and its affiliates, including key financiers and Iranian officials, signal a strong stance against the group’s funding networks. This move could further strain relations between Europe and Iran while intensifying the conflict’s geopolitical dimensions. As the EU weighs proposed sanctions against violent Israeli extremists in the West Bank, Brussels is caught in navigating a delicate tightrope of balancing both sides’ concerns in the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, potentially affecting its diplomatic positioning in the region.
Read More: France 24, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Disruptive Technology: Supreme court declines to rule on dispute over state laws regulating social media
On Monday, the US Supreme Court avoided making a final decision in two cases challenging state laws designed to limit social media companies’ content moderation powers.
Our Take: The Court’s decision to avoid ruling on the free speech rights of tech platforms maintains the status quo but leaves unresolved key issues surrounding content moderation laws in Florida and Texas. This outcome could prolong legal uncertainty and debate over how social media companies balance editorial discretion with regulatory demands, potentially leading to further contentious legal battles. Additionally, the lack of a definitive ruling may prompt continued legislative efforts and influence future court decision on digital speech and platform governance.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], CATO Institute, The Hill
Energy Transition: Subsea cables in Northern Europe could help connect grids, meet boom in electricity demand
Grids in Northern Europe are being connected by subsea cables to share growing supplies of wind power in this new era of clean energy. A grandiose project to build a nearly 2,500-mile subsea power line would connect wind and solar farms in Morocco to the UK, providing a new source of electricity to meet growing demand.
Our Take: The enthusiasm by entrepreneurs to harness wind and solar power to lead the energy transition is evident in long-range subsea cable project proposals. The problems are multiple however, and not just costs. Regional politics and disputes, divergent regulatory environments and required long term commitment to energy transition can stall or stop projects, which add to the economic risks. Still, projects are going forward, when the economics, politics and regulatory requirements align.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], European Subsea Cables Association
