Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,144 words and a 7-minute read.
Global: Risks of the new US-Russia missile race with new US deployments to Germany
Starting in 2026, the US plans to deploy in Germany SM-6s and Tomahawks, previously placed mainly on ships, and new hypersonic missiles. The US sees the deployment as a commitment to defending European security.
Our Take: Arms control talks with Russia are non-existent, leaving no channel to manage tensions and provide transparency. In 2018, Russian violations led the Trump administration to withdrawal from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) treaty. In June, Russia announced it would resume producing short and intermediate-range land-based missiles, which the US assessed Russia has been doing covertly for years. Russia is currently refusing to engage in arms control talks, until the US drastically alters its position on the war in Ukraine. The US move will improve NATO’s deterrence posture in Europe, but may lead to further escalation and develop into a full-blown arms race.
Read More: Reuters, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Europe: Donald Trump picks JD Vance; Feeds European fears on future security cooperation
Donald Trump’s section of JD Vance as his running mate is adding to European concerns about future transatlantic relations, including support to Ukraine in defending against Russian aggression.
Our Take: European officials hold broad concerns that election of Donald Trump will shatter the current consensus between the US and Europe opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine politically, militarily and financially, strengthening NATO, and working cooperatively on international trade policy. European leaders have adopted policies requiring many financial tradeoffs in order to put European collective security at the top of their spending priorities, decisions that will be more difficult to defend in European capitals if Washington tilts towards isolationist and protectionist policies.
Read More: Financial Times [paywall], Wall Street Journal [paywall], European Council on Foreign Relations
Middle East: ISIS attacks on the rise
A new Pentagon report found that attacks claimed by ISIS are on the rise this year and currently projected to double last year’s count, indicating a possible resurgence for the group that has for the most part focused on regional rebuilding in recent years.
Our Take: The uptick could be due to a number of factors: the group has become stronger and gained more freedom of operation, or continued disenchantment with the governments of Syria and Iraq, or a response to the diversion of US assets toward Iranian-backed groups. Whatever the cause, increased ISIS activity could add to the long list of issues facing the US and its partners in the Middle East region, further complicating attempts to de-escalate.
Read More: New York Times [paywall],Stimson Center
Americas: Colombia ends stop-and-start ceasefire with FARC once again
Colombia’s government announced the end to a ceasefire with FARC-EMC’s largest faction, a holdout rebel group that has refused to sign a broader 2016 peace deal. The group had been engaged in peace talks with President Petro’s administration until March.
Our Take: Government officials said the deal was ending because the FARC-EMC has split into two factions. A cease-fire with the group’s smallest faction will be extended for three months while peace talks with the government continue. The split illustrates the complexity of President Petro’s campaign promise of “total peace” as the plan nears two years old. While there has been steady progress engaging armed groups, new factions emerge frequently, and drug violence remains difficult to address.
Read More: Associated Press, International Crisis Group, Council on Foreign Relations
Asia-Pacific: Police fire on demonstrators protesting Bangladesh’s government job quota system
In Bangladesh, police used tear gas and rubber bullets to break up student protests, resulting in six deaths and numerous injuries, and authorities have now closed all public and private universities indefinitely due to the unrest.
Our Take: The escalation of violence in Bangladesh, triggered by protests against the government's job quota system, underscores the growing dissatisfaction among youth facing high unemployment and limited opportunities. The indefinite closure of universities and ongoing clashes with police and ruling party activists risk further destabilizing the country, potentially igniting more widespread unrest if economic and political grievances remain unaddressed. The power of the ruling Awami League led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina grows increasingly fragile as public anger has swelled over the government’s decision to violently crack down on the protests.
Read More: Reuters, New York Times [paywall]
Africa: Africa faces renewed mpox outbreaks
Two recent mpox outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa are increasing worries about the global spread of the virus and the emergence of a more lethal strain than the one first identified in 2022.
Our Take: The resurgence of mpox in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo, where a more lethal strain is spreading rapidly, poses significant risks of a global health crisis if not controlled. Mpox had previously been a global health concern in 2022 when an outbreak spread to the United States and European countries, though largely subsided within a year due to targeted public health measures such as vaccination of vulnerable individuals. The potential for this deadlier variant to cross borders, combined with inadequate vaccine distribution between developed and developing countries and challenges in reaching marginalized communities, underscores the urgent need for greater worldwide attention and relief to the worsening outbreak in Africa.
Read More: NPR, AfricaCDC, Gavi
Trade and Compliance: UK does not plan to impose tariffs on Chinese EV imports
UK Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds stated that the country will not immediately impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports like the EU, adding that no formal investigation into these imports is planned since the UK car sector has not requested one.
Our Take: The UK's decision not to impose tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, unlike the EU, reflects a strategic choice to support its export-oriented automotive industry and avoid potential trade conflicts with China. However, this stance could create a competitive disadvantage for British car manufacturers and complicate trade relations if the EU's tariffs lead to market distortions or retaliatory measures. While the UK has generally rallied with EU and US strategy on China, its reluctance to immediately move in alignment on EV tariffs also shows London’s desire to leverage strategic autonomy in diplomatic relations post-Brexit.
Read More: Financial Times, Chatham House, Bloomberg [paywall]
Climate Change: Canada’s wildfires are back; risks to the Canadian economy
Western Canada is one again ablaze, forcing evacuations and causing oil companies to shut down production.
Our Take: 2023 was a record-breaking year for fires, with 6,132 fires across Canada burning more than 45 million acres, and costing the Canadian economy close to $10 billion. To prepare for this season, the Canadian federal government worked closely with local governments on emergency preparedness planning, purchase of specialized firefighting equipment and training firefighters. The question is whether the investment in mitigation measures will be sufficient to control the losses of 2024.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], New York Times [paywall], Canadian Climate Institute
