Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,330 words and an 8-minute read.
Global: Shortage of munitions that are needed to support Ukraine
A Reuters investigation outlines how policymakers in America and Europe repeatedly failed to address warnings about the West’s munitions industry inability to scale up production should war demand it. Lack of supplies are shifting war in Russia’s favor.
Our Take: NATO member states have been emptying their stockpiles of 155mm artillery shells faster than industry can replenish them and provide the supplies needed for Ukraine to stall Russian advances. New production lines in the US and Europe are coming online; in the US production has gone from 240,000 shells a year in 2022 to 360,000 in 2024, with plans to reach 1.2 million by 2026. The EU is targeting 1.7 million shells a year by the end of 2024. The Ukrainian military’s current need is 200,000 artillery shells a month, or 2.4 million per year. A counter-offensive would require more, perhaps 350,000 shells a month, or 4.2 million. Assuming a maximum production rate, the U.S. and EU would manufacture 2.6 million 155mm rounds per year by 2025. Without new suppliers, a lack of artillery munitions will constrain Ukraine’s battlefield options.
Read More: Reuters, Lawfare Institute, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Europe: France races to secure the Paris Olympics; threats come from multiple actors
French security services are focusing on potential risks from terrorist groups recruiting from among the Tajik and Central Asian communities in the countries.
Our Take: One major threat actor is ISIS-K, a resurgent wing of Islamic State named after the historical region of Khorasan that included parts of Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia. The ISIS-K attack in Moscow in March 2024 demonstrated that the terrorist group has operational reach into Europe. But Islamic extremists are not the only threat. Russian intelligence has launched a number of sabotage operations in Europe and could seek to disrupt the Olympics. There are also threats from the radical left and right. The challenge for French security is to have 100% success on defense; a very hard outcome against determined adversaries.
Read More: Reuters, Defense One, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism
Middle East: Russia threatens further involvement in MENA
A leaked letter the commander from the US CENTCOM to the Secretary of Defense reports that the US is concerned that Russia may arm Yemen’s Houthi militants with advanced antiship missiles in retaliation for the US’ support for Ukrainian strikes inside of Russia.
Our Take: The intelligence comes from a classified letter to the Wall Street Journal. The letter says that the US is trying to utilize a third country to try to persuade Russia to hold off on transfers of advanced weapons to the Houthis, a step that some analysts think Moscow is threatening to discourage the US from further assisting Ukraine. Nonetheless, antiship arms from Russia would significantly escalate operations in the Red Sea and mark Moscow’s most direct intervention in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a dangerous escalation.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], War on the Rocks
Americas: Haiti situation remains dire, despite PM efforts
Haiti’s UN-appointed Prime Minister Garry Conille issued a new call for gangs controlling the country’s capital to surrender their weapons. In the same TV address, he pledged to crack down on rampant violence.
Our Take: Haiti is gripped by violence between gangs that have taken effective control of swaths of the capital since March, and new comments by Conille (a longtime UN diplomat recently installed as interim prime minister) are unlikely to reverse the current crisis. Earlier this month, a Kenyan-led multinational peacekeeping force of 200 arrived to help policing efforts, but observers remain pessimistic that progress is being made, and Conille’s exhortations risk doing nothing more than exposing the government’s lack of options.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], War on the Rocks
Asia-Pacific: Vietnam’s top leader passes away at age 80
Nguyen Phu Trong, the 80-year-old general secretary of Vietnam’s Communist Party and the nation's most influential leader, died after a period of illness, according to official media reports on Friday.
Our Take: Nguyen Phu Trong's death creates significant uncertainty in Vietnam's political landscape, potentially destabilizing the Communist Party as it grapples with a power vacuum. The erosion of institutional norms under Trong’s rule, coupled with his anti-corruption campaign, has left the party more reliant on individual power than established structures, heightening the risk of factionalism and instability during the leadership transition. Vietnam is one of the fastest growing economies in Southeast Asia and an increasingly courted partner for the US and China amid the countries’ competition for influence in the Indo-Pacific. The prospect of a power vacuum following the death of Nguyen Phu Trong reflects high stakes for the country’s ability to continue growing its economy and geopolitical importance.
Read More: Associated Press, Nikkei Asia [paywall]
Africa: Nigeria’s unions reach a new wage agreement with the government
On Thursday, Nigeria's primary labor unions reached an agreement with the government on a new minimum wage, resolving a prolonged impasse and averting potential strikes amid the country's severe cost of living crisis.
Our Take: While the new minimum wage agreement in Nigeria provides immediate relief amid a severe cost of living crisis, the situation remains precarious due to ongoing inflation and economic instability. The risk of social unrest persists, particularly if the new wage proves insufficient to offset the high prices and if further unpopular reforms or economic hardships exacerbate public discontent. With underlying challenges such as government corruption remaining, the agreement could simply band-aid citizens’ grievances, allowing discontent to swell to a larger scale that threatens the country’s political stability.
Read More: Reuters, AfricaNews, Al Jazeera
Trade and Compliance: UK adds additional Russia-linked oil tankers to sanctions list
On Thursday, the UK imposed 11 new shipping sanctions under its Russia sanctions regime for the Ukraine conflict, targeting vessels involved in transporting oil or oil products from Russia to other countries.
Our Take: Britain’s latest sanctions targeting ships involved in transporting Russian oil underscore its ongoing efforts to curb Moscow's access to global oil markets, potentially disrupting Russia's revenue streams. The move coincides with the efforts of Western governments, including the US, to target Russian shadow fleets accused of helping Moscow bypass sanctions. However, the use of flags from Panama, Gabon, and the Cook Islands by these vessels highlights the challenges in enforcing sanctions due to the complex global shipping networks used to evade restrictions.
Read More: Reuters, Financial Times [paywall]
Disruptive Technology: SolarWinds beats most SEC charges in hack case
A judge dismissed most of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s fraud charges against SolarWinds over misleading cybersecurity statements, allowing only claims related to pre-attack website statements to proceed.
Our Take: The ruling is a major blow for the SEC’s efforts in recent years to step up its enforcement authority. The judge’s dismissal of most of the SEC’s fraud charges against SolarWinds weakens the SEC’s aggressive stance on holding companies accountable for cybersecurity practices, potentially limiting its ability to challenge similar cases in the future. However, the remaining charge could still pose risks for SolarWinds if it is found to have made misleading statements about its cybersecurity strategies on its website.
Read More: Axios, Wall Street Journal [paywall]
Energy Transition: As electricity supply becomes less reliable, prices increasing
As the electricity grid becomes increasingly unstable due to age and extreme weather, utilities are ramping up spending on long-overdue maintenance and capital improvements. Utilities from Michigan to New York and beyond are planning their largest capital investments since World War II. (Reuters)
Our Take: Power outages are becoming more frequent and lasting longer as extreme weather assaults the nation’s electrical grids. Threats don not stop there. The electric grid is growing more vulnerable to cyberattacks. Geopolitical conflict, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine and tensions with China, have dramatically increased the number of cyber threats to North American power grids. Upgrading security and resilience has become a national security priority.
Read More: Reuters, House Committee on Oversight and Accountability
ESG: New European Clean Industrial Deal promises cleaner industry – and likely backlash
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced her intention to introduce a new “Clean Industrial Deal” early in her new term, intended to aim investment towards decarbonizing the EU’s industrial base.
Our Take: This Clean Industrial Deal must balance efforts to decarbonize the EU’s industrial base to meet ambitious bloc climate targets against desires to speed up industrial production in Europe to counter Chinese suppliers, safeguard supply chains, and maintain profitability for the industry (an area other clean efforts have struggled in – see the reaction of French farmers to green efforts in the last several years).
Read More: ESG Today, Foreign Policy [paywall]
