Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,303 words and an 8-minute read.
Global: French security gears up for the start of Olympics; the Goldilocks challenge
French security is taking a highly visible posture to deter security incidents at the Olympics, including squadrons of police patrolling the streets of Paris, soldiers forming outer perimeters ready for immediate response and imposing metal security barriers along the Seine, the prime location for the opening ceremony.
Our Take: Hosting the Olympic Games brings national prestige, rallies and unifies a nation divided over politics, economics and social issues. It is also a supreme challenge for national security agencies. The French government complicated the security challenge by deciding to host the games in the heart of Paris and not in easier to secure venues where proximity and access can be strictly controlled. The risks are very high, from Islamic extremists, political extremists and Russian saboteurs. French security must keep the Games secure, without so heavy of hand as to dampen the freedom of movement and joie de vie of this international gathering.
Read More: Associated Press, Financial Times [paywall]
Europe: Dispute between Ukraine and Lukoil spills over to the EU; Hungary plans retaliation
With their oil supply under threat, Hungary and Slovakia have appealed to the European Commission to intervene with Ukraine after Kyiv imposed sanctions on Lukoil.
Our Take: This dispute risks further dividing the EU over energy security policy and presents new challenges in managing a much larger dispute with Hungary over EU foreign policy. It was inevitable that the special arrangement that allowed Russian oil to flow through Druzhba oil pipeline to energy dependent Eastern European states would not be sustainable the longer the Russian war against Ukraine persisted. Finding compromises with Hungary, whose leaders opposed the EU Ukraine policy, have also proved difficult, with EU leaders now finding ways to work around Budapest’s objections, and seeking to censure Hungary for flouting EU policy and democratic rules. Hungary currently chairs the EU Presidency, giving Budapest a podium to challenge EU policies. Kyiv has not stated why it decided to sanction Lukoil at this time, but the Ukrainian government may have wanted to pressure Hungary after Viktor Orban’s uncoordinated “peace mission” to Moscow and China.
Read More: Reuters, Reuters, Politico, Energy News
Middle East: Israeli retaliation for Tel Aviv attack designed to deter but not escalate
Israeli fighter jets bombed a port in Yemen controlled by the Iran-backed Houthi militia on Saturday.
Our Take: The attack, in retaliation for the Houthi’s deadly drone attack on Tel Aviv the week before, was the first time that Israel had publicly engaged with the group following months of escalating Houthi attacks on Israeli targets and international trade routes in retaliation for Israel’s operations in Gaza. Israel’s attack was calibrated to establish deterrence while aiming not to provoke further escalation, a significant risk as Israel faces war in Gaza, hostilities with Hizballah on its Lebanese border, and a shadow war with Iran.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], Stimson Center
Americas: Elections drive immigration trends in South and Central America
A new migrant caravan left Mexico’s southern border on foot Sunday in a fresh attempt to cross the US’ southern border.
Our Take: Some migrants said they hoped to make it to the US border before elections are held in November because they fear that if Donald Trump wins, he will follow through on a promise to close the border to asylum-seekers. These attitudes could result in a pre-election surge, a wrench in the gears for VP Harris.
Read More: Associated Press, Pew Research Center, Migration Policy Institute
Asia-Pacific: Bangladesh’s top court rolls back most government job quotas after violent protests
Bangladesh's Supreme Court reversed most of the controversial quotas on government jobs, which caused violent protests and high unemployment levels, particularly among students and young people.
Our Take: Since many of the roles in question are linked to job security and higher pay, the quota system has angered many students and young people in the country, given Bangladesh’s high employment levels. The court’s decision offers some hope for the protestors in achieving their aims. However, continued government crackdowns, including a curfew and internet monitoring, and violence against protestors continue to risk further escalating tensions to a point that the ruling government is unable to effectively control.
Read More: CNN, New York Times [paywall], Reuters
Trade and Compliance: Russia uses Hong Kong to evade sanctions
The Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation published an analysis indicating Hong Kong's significant role in assisting US adversaries like Russia to evade international sanctions by exporting high-tech items.
Our Take: Hong Kong’s regulatory environment makes it easy for both locals and foreigners to set up shell companies, a feature of which Russian entities and individuals have taken advantage. The US sanctioned three Hong Kong companies in April 2023 for helping Iran bypass sanctions, and growing scrutiny over the city’s role in aiding Russia may likely prompt further enforcement measures from Washington and other Western economies. Hong Kong is thus put in a tricky position, where on one hand, the city seeks to re-establish itself as a global financial hub following the COVID-19 pandemic, yet on the other, it cannot stray far from Beijing’s grand strategy, which has enabled tacit yet discrete support to Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.
Read More: Reuters, Nikkei Asia [paywall]
Disruptive Technology: Survey identifies new trends on organizational GenAI adoption
A new study by ServiceNow reveals that 80% of companies investing in generative AI have seen positive returns, though most companies remain in the initial stages of adopting the technology.
Our Take: While businesses are under enormous pressure to demonstrate that they are taking advantage of the AI revolution, many companies have struggled to move on from experimentation to full-scale adoption of the technology. Still, many organizations can benefit by fully making use of investments that existing software makers have made in AI. Industry experts note that conveying clarity instead of downplaying the technology can keep companies of all types competitive amidst further technological impacts on the workplace.
Read More: Axios, EY, World Economic Forum
Climate Change: US west coast cooks in record-breaking heat; wild fire risks increase
Parts of California, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Oregon and Washington are under heat advisories or excessive heat warnings, anticipating continued record-breaking heat through next week.
Our Take: Beyond the risks of extreme heat, dry conditions are fueling wildfires in the northwest and west. Dry thunderstorms producing lightning can spark new fires as the heat dome intensifies and expands northward. The National Interagency Fire Center predicted that the northwest would have above normal significant fire potential staring in July through September, due to lingering drought effects on vegetation plus past fire history in similar conditions. California is reporting 4,260 fires covering 276,618 acres as of mid-July, compared to the same period in 2023, with 3,512 wildfires covering 22,183 acres. In Oregon, more than 800,000 acres are currently burning, at 133% above average. Fires result not only in destruction of homes, but livelihoods, increased insurance costs and overall cost of living.
ESG: Major tech companies target data centers, a hidden heavyweight in emissions
The iMasons Climate Accord’s Governing Body, which includes major tech companies, has released an open letter urging data center suppliers to be more transparent in reporting their greenhouse gas emissions.
Our Take: Data centers, which require significant amounts of energy, water and land to host the infrastructure that stores and processes the world’s data, are a surprisingly large contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions: the centers contribute between 1-4% to global emissions, about as much as the airline industry. The iMasons, an industry group that calls for carbon accounting and reduction in digital infrastructure, called on data centers to adopt Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs), which are standardized, third-party-verified documents that report a product’s greenhouse gas emissions throughout its lifecycle.
Read More: ESG News, TechTarget
