Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,375 words and a 9-minute read.
Global: Russian and Chinese warplanes intercepted off Alaska’s coast, testing US readiness
US and Canadian fighters intercepted Russian and Chinese warplanes on Wednesday nearing the Alaska coastline. This is the first time that Russia and China have conducted joint operations with strategic bombers near North America.
Our Take: Russian and Chinese military cooperation is not new, but has been accelerating since 2014. Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi have shared interests in challenging US global influence and checking US force projection. National security officials from both nations regularly meet for political and military consultations. They conduct joint military exercises, most recently just this past week in the South China Sea, with a combined maritime force carrying out various tactical drills, including joint live-fire air and missile defense drills. Last August, a combined Russian and Chinese naval force patrolled off the coast of Alaska. In both incidents off Alaska, US airspace and territorial waters were not breached. Regardless, US forces mobilized to intercept, allowing the challengers to test the US response, gaining intelligence on US readiness.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Reuters, War on the Rocks
Europe: New EU Rule of Law Report flags internal risks; Hungary biggest concern
The European Commission has released the new edition of its Rule of Law Report, showing persistent problems in press freedom. Italy, Hungary and Slovakia were singled out for declining democratic standards, negatively impacting prosecution of corruption, the independence of the judicial system and the safety of journalists.
Our Take: The purpose of the EU Rule of Law report is to identify and address emerging challenges to European democracy to head off potential crises demanding policy action. European policy experts disagree over the use of the report’s naming and shaming approach. However, it does provide important insight into the growing risks associated with the gradual erosion of the rule of law across the bloc. In past years, Poland has been the country of heightened risks, but with the change of government and the adoption of a new Action Plan on the Rule of Law, “no progress” assessments have been upgraded to some or significant progress. In comparison, Hungary is the new top concern, with “no progress” grades dominating, a clear red flag for readers. The question is whether the EU has a long-term strategy for bringing Hungary back into alignment with EU values and policies.
Read More: Euronews, European Commission, Internationale Politik Quarterly
Middle East: New snags in Gaza peace talks
Israel is reportedly seeking to institute a new measure that would require displaced Palestinians to be screened as they return to their pre-war homes, a measure that will likely face Hamas objections and that could complicate already fraught negotiations.
Our Take: The change, which Israel argues would function as a vetting mechanism for returning Palestinians that could support Hamas fighters who remain entrenched there, threatens to derail ceasefire negotiations that in recent days have seemed increasingly hopeful. In addition to stalling talks as Hamas has signaled that they will not support vetting, any attempt at screening returning Gazans attempting to flee could result in significant delays and humanitarian choke points, as well as unclear screening parameters leading to high levels of detainment. Israel is reportedly also requesting to maintain control of Gaza’s border with Egypt, a request that Egypt has dismissed before seeing the new deal text.
Read More: Reuters, Wilson Center, Atlantic Council
Americas: Most consequential election in Venezuela in decades could unseat Maduro
Venezuelans vote this weekend in presidential elections that observers say will be socialist autocrat Nicolás Maduro’s toughest electoral challenge since taking office in 2013.
Our Take: Maduro is up against María Corina Machado, a former opposition legislator who has built the most significant voter mobilization since Hugo Chávez. Despite her overwhelming popularity, she faces an uphill battle to be elected; the election is not judged by international observers to be entirely free or fair, and while every major poll shows Maduro losing in a general election, critics fear he will not publicize nor accept the result. If she wins, Machado has pledged to overhaul Venezuela’s broken economy, which could include steps to repair its relationship with the US and lift sanctions, and step back from ties with Iran and Russia.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], Wilson Center, Chatham House
Asia-Pacific: Blinken embarks on Asia tour to reaffirm US commitment to the region
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday set out on a 10-day tour across six Asian countries to reinforce ties with strategic partners in a region where the US faces an increasingly assertive China.
Our Take: Blinken’s visit to Laos, Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Mongolia is one of his longest foreign trips to date and is intended to signal that US President Joe Biden, and his endorsed successor Vice President Kamala Harris, are fully committed to the Asia-Pacific region. While the administration has made progress on strengthening defense ties with Japan and the Philippines, as well as greater strategic convergence with countries such as Vietnam and Mongolia, hurdles remain over lackluster US economic engagement with the region compared to China, as well as uncertainty around how the results of the November US presidential election will affect ongoing efforts.
Read More: Associated Press, New York Times [paywall], Nikkei Asia [paywall]
Africa: Sudan’s agriculture minister denies there is famine in the country
Sudan’s agriculture minister said there is no famine in the country, casting doubt on UN-backed data that states 755,000 people are experiencing catastrophic hunger.
Our Take: As Sudan’s hunger crisis worsens amidst the ongoing civil war in the country, its military is blocking the United Nations from bringing massive amounts of food in through a vital border crossing. The US has condemned the military’s actions. While the prospect of mass starvation in Sudan draws closer, the government risks facing stronger international pressure to address the crisis so that the effects of the ongoing war do not destabilize the larger region.
Read More: Reuters, New York Times [paywall]
Trade and Compliance: Ukraine tells Hong Kong to stop helping Russia evade sanctions
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba during a visit to Hong Kong on Thursday called on local officials to prevent Russia and Russian businesses from using the region to bypass sanctions.
Our Take: Kuleba’s calls came after a report on Monday from advocacy group the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation, which said the city had been shipping goods listed on the US and EU list of “Common High Priority Items” critical for Russia’s war effort. While Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee responded by saying that Hong Kong strictly adheres to global sanctions and local laws, the US and EU have sanctioned a number of companies in the city for evading the extensive measures imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Further scrutiny of Hong Kong’s role in helping Russia evade sanctions risks impeding the local government’s efforts to market the city’s attractiveness as a global business hub again, following declining interest from Western companies in recent years.
Read More: Associated Press, CNN, South China Morning Post [paywall]
Climate Change: The best quick fix for climate change? Curbing methane
Eliminating all methane emissions from human activities would cut the level of methane in the Earth’s atmosphere to preindustrial levels in less than 20 years and reduce global warming by 0.5 degrees, a big kick start in meeting climate emission goals.
Our Take: Absent sustained and transparent monitoring of methane emissions, it is challenging to track, quantify and mitigate methane emissions. An emerging network of methane-tracking satellites will assist in tracking and quantifying, but the mitigation piece will not necessarily follow. More than 150 countries have signed the Global Methane Pledge to cut methane emissions 30% by 2030. The pledges would need to be followed up by policy actions to create incentives (and disincentives) for emitters. The US and EU have advanced new regulations and laws, but many other countries are yet to act on their pledge. China has adopted a five-year plan to improve monitoring, but has not signed the Global Methane Pledge.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], International Energy Agency
