Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,332 words and an 8-minute read.
Global: Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit brings together Putin and Xi; vying for influence in the shifting global order
Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping met in Astana on the margins of the Eurasian security group summit, on Wednesday. The two believe the US-dominated global order is crumbling and are working to expand their spheres of influence by enlarging the SCO.
Our Take: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)’s mission is to strengthen relationships between member states, develop economic cooperation and oppose terrorism, separatism and extremism. Originally focused on Central Asia, it has expanded to include India, Pakistan and Iran, with Belarus expected to be accepted at the upcoming meeting. Other Arab states have joined as observers. China and Russia may have envisioned it as a NATO-like alliance, but its growth has diluted shared interests. SCO, however, provides convening power and a podium for statements of solidarity, if not actual coordinated policies and actions.
Read More: Reuters, US Institute of Peace
Europe: Anti-immigrant sentiments sparks warning from UN rights chief on rise of far-right in Europe
United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk called for vigilance following the political gains of far-right political parties in Europe, and the risks that hate speech and discrimination against migrants and asylum seekers poses to European democratic.
Our Take: Six EU countries have seen the election of hard-right political candidates who now sit in government. Far-right parties won a record number of seats in the European Parliament in June. The far right is also growing in popularity in Netherlands, France and Germany. Young voters especially are rejecting the politics of their parents, but it is likely far more than that. Governments are perceived to be failing to address rising cost of living, persistent unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and lingering impacts on the economy and society by the pandemic. People want change, and nationalist rhetoric critical of elitism and permissive immigration policy is resonating with voters. While this is democracy in action, the far right bring increased risks of anti-liberal policies and democratic backsliding.
Read More: Reuters, Politico, The Economist [paywall], Chatham House
Middle East: Clashes between Israel and Hizballah escalate
The near-daily clashes between Israel and Hizballah along Lebanon and Israel’s border continued to escalate, with Israel air strikes killing a senior Hizballah commander. The group said that they retaliated by firing scores of rockets at military positions near the border.
Our Take: Diplomats are scrambling to prevent an all-out war on Israel’s northern border, despite continued escalation. Hizballah said that it will stop its attacks once Israel agrees to a cease-fire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, an unlikely prospect in the near term. The escalating strikes represent the steadily rising temperature throughout the region.
Read More: Associated Press, Economist [paywall]
Americas: US and Panama crack down on Darien Gap crossings
On Monday, the US and Panama signed an agreement with the US to close off the passing of illegal immigrants through the Darien Gap, a dangerous jungle on Panama’s border with Colombia through which many immigrants pass on their way to the US. The US will cover the costs of repatriating migrants who enter Panama illegally.
Our Take: The Darien Gap between Colombia and Panama is the only overland crossing between Central and South America, and is one of the world’s most dangerous migration routes. The area has been increasingly utilized in recent years as authorities have cracked down on other, more heavily trafficked routes north, despite the significant risks of transit. The US is seeking new ways to stem illegal immigration, especially as President Biden plans for his reelection campaign, and this agreement will likely help in that regard.
Read More: Reuters, Council on Foreign Relations
Asia-Pacific: Stampede at religious festival in India kills at least 116 people
A stampede at a Hindu religious event in northern India resulted in the death of at least 116 individuals, predominantly women and children, marking one of the nation's most devastating tragedies in recent years.
Our Take: The recent tragic stampede in northern India underscores the risks associated with holding overcrowded public events, exemplified as well by the Seoul Halloween crowd crush that occurred in South Korea in 2022. Highlighting the need for better crowd management and safety measures at such gatherings, as well as improved emergency response procedures, the incident also provides an opportunity for the local government to revise and enforce stricter rules for mass gatherings. Such regulations may not be a current political priority for the central government, but public backlash over the disaster could prevent local governments to act and prevent such tragedies in the future.
Read More: Reuters, NDTV, New York Times [paywall]
Trade and Compliance: US adds six companies to trade restriction list, including four for training China’s military
On Tuesday, the US imposed trade restrictions on six companies, four of which are linked to training China's military, from countries including China, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and the UK, as per a government announcement.
Our Take: Washington’s recent expansion of sanctions on Chinese-affiliated companies reflects the US government’s strategy of restricting access to advanced technologies that could be used to train China’s military and will require the listed entities to apply for licenses to receive US goods and technology, which are likely to be denied. Washington seeks to enhance its national security by preventing its technology and expertise from aiding foreign military forces and potentially harmful entities. This is particularly relevant as the US continues to accuse China of aiding Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.
Read More: CNBC, Council on Foreign Relations, East Asia Forum
Disruptive Technology: UN adopts Chinese-sponsored resolution to close the gap in access to AI
The UN General Assembly, with backing from the US, approved a Chinese-sponsored resolution calling on developed nations to address the growing disparity with developing countries in terms of access to and benefits from artificial intelligence (AI).
Our Take: The recent adoption of a resolution aimed at reducing the disparity of advanced technology access demonstrates a rare cooperative effort between the US and China, despite their growing strategic rivalry. The initiative offers opportunities for advancing global AI standards and promoting its safe, secure, and trustworthy use, while enabling less developed countries to gain access to the technology’s benefits. With this said, risks of disagreement remain concerning the military applications of AI, possible divergence in AI governance approaches, and the need to ensure protection of personal data and human rights.
Read More: Associated Press, South China Morning Post [paywall], Bloomberg [paywall]
Energy Transition: China and the US race towards breakthrough on solid-state batteries
While China is dominant in the market for EV lithium-ion batteries, a scientific breakthrough on solid-state batteries could shake up the market and the battery supply chain, providing Western companies an opportunity to catch up.
Our Take: Solid-state batteries are safer, charge faster, are cheaper to make, but are not yet ready for commercialization. Industry scientists are focused on overcoming the technical problems, with scientists forecasting a breakthrough is around the corner. For people who hold off, wanting EVs with better batteries and more affordability, waiting could be a smart economic bet, but it could slow the transition to EVs, regardless of which country’s scientists make the breakthrough.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Engineering.com
ESG: Emerging tech investing down in 2023 Q1
A review by PitchBook found that VC deal value in the emerging technology sector is down in Q1 of 2023, with $2.7 billion invested.
Our Take: Lithium battery recycling startups drew the largest share of capital in the PitchBook review of VC deal value, a promising sector even as they continue to navigate varying regulations and standards for battery use, development, and disposal. These companies, like others in the vertical, are consistently affected by changing global policy and political landscapes, leading to volatile investment landscapes. Money inflows could have been down recently in anticipation of a potential second Trump term in 2025.
Read More: PitchBook, World Economic Forum
