Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,419 words and a 9-minute read.
Global: US to impose new global export controls on critical technologies
The US Department of Commerce published an interim final rule with new global export controls on critical technologies including quantum computing and advanced semiconductor items.
Our Take: The interim final rule, which is open for public comment for 60 days, tightens controls on critical technologies that can be applied to purposes contrary to US national security or foreign policy. The rule includes a license exception for allies that align their export controls similarly. The US is seeking to build out the technology-centric national security partnership in a preferential trading arrangement that will also foster collaboration and innovation in a new ecosystem, while, hardening trade barriers with China, Russia and other countries designated as national security risks.
Read More: US Bureau of Industry and Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Europe: Polish security services disrupt a cyber sabotage operation; spillover of Ukraine war risks to supporters
Polish officials attribute the cyberattacks to Belarusian and Russian intelligence agencies, seeking to damage Polish critical infrastructure in retaliation against Polish support to Ukraine.
Our Take: Poland is not the only target of Russian intelligence-backed cyberattacks. The US unsealed an indictment against five Russian GRU officers and one civilian last week, charging them with conspiracy to commit computer intrusion and wire fraud conspiracy. The defendants’ targets were not exclusively Ukrainian, but included computer systems of the US and 25 other NATO countries. The US government issued a cybersecurity advisory on the by the Russian GRU (Unit 29155), engaged in cyber campaigns such as website defacement, infrastructure scanning, data exfiltration, and data leak operations, with the primary focus of targeting and disrupting efforts to provide aid to Ukraine.
Read More: Reuters, US Department of Justice, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency
Middle East: New Israeli air strikes on Syria
The Syrian government accused Israel of killing at least 16 in missile strikes into western Syria, where Israel has accused the country of aiding Iran’s armed proxies.
Our Take: Syria has not, until recently, been at the top of Israel’s list of priorities in its multi-front war against Hamas and Iran-backed armed groups on its many borders. In recent months, Israel has expanded its air campaign against targets in Syria, as Syria has reportedly supplied arms to Iranian groups as well as fired directly on Israeli towns to support Hamas. Israel is walking a thin line in punishing Syria for its contributions to attacks against it, while not drawing Syria into a full-fledged war and establishing a new front in an already complex conflict. Further direct attacks could tip the balance for Damascus.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], The Washington Post [paywall], Chatham House
Americas: Venezuelan opposition candidate flees to Spain
Venezuela’s opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González, whose win in recent elections was likely suppressed by autocrat Nicolás Maduro, fled to exile in Spain, where his party says he will remain a strong voice in exile.
Our Take: Despite international calls for transparency into the election, and overwhelming domestic support for Gonzalez, his flight from Venezuela in the face of an arrest warrant for “crimes associated with terrorism” signals something of an end to the opposition struggle this electoral cycle. The Maduro regime had steadfastly ignored international pressure and viciously cracked down on opposition politicians, digging in its heels for another term. Options are increasingly limited for external supporters and internal supporters of the opposition, which will now likely lose steam.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], The Atlantic Council, Axios
Asia-Pacific: North Korea vows to grow nuclear arsenal exponentially
State media KCNA on Tuesday reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is now enacting a nuclear force construction policy to “exponentially” increase the number of nuclear weapons.
Our Take: North Korea’s plan to exponentially expand its nuclear arsenal raises significant security concerns for the broader region and international community. This move is likely a response to perceived threats from US-led military alliances in East Asia, further escalating tensions and prompting neighboring countries like South Korea and Japan to strengthen their defense ties with Washington. Such developments increase the risk of an arms race in the region, heightening instability and complicating diplomatic efforts to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.
Read More: Reuters, Arms Control Association, Council on Foreign Relations
Africa: Kenyan court pauses proposed Adani lease of Nairobi airport
Kenya’s high court on Monday suspended a proposed deal for India’s Adani Group to operate the country’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport following intense local opposition.
Our Take: The temporary suspension of Adani Group’s proposed 30-year lease of Kenya’s main airport highlights significant local opposition and concerns over job losses, fiscal risks, and a lack of value for taxpayers. This legal challenge reflects broader resistance to foreign control of critical infrastructure, especially by companies with perceived ties to political influence, as seen in Adani’s past international deals. If blocked, Kenya may need to seek alternative funding to modernize its airport, potentially delaying infrastructure upgrades. Yet, for global investors, this development underscores the growing risks of public backlash and legal responses to large-scale foreign investments in strategic national assets.
Read More: Reuters, Financial Times [paywall], Brookings Institution
Trade & Compliance: US and India announce new partnership to strengthen semiconductor supply chain
The US State Department announced on Monday that it will partner with the Indian government to explore opportunities to expand and diversify the global semiconductor ecosystem.
Our Take: The partnership between Washington and New Delhi to strengthen the global semiconductor supply chain holds significant strategic importance for both nations and their global allies. By collaborating on workforce development, infrastructure needs, and regulatory frameworks, this initiative is set to boost India’s emerging semiconductor industry and complement US efforts to reduce reliance on a few key players, such as Taiwan. This development is especially critical as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions underscore the risks of concentrated semiconductor production.
Read More: US Department of State, The Indian Express [paywall], Foreign Policy [paywall]
Disruptive Technology: Sixty countries endorse blueprint for military AI use
Around 60 countries, including the United States, on Tuesday backed a blueprint for governing military applications of artificial intelligence (AI) at the Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) summit in Seoul, South Korea, with China notably declining to support the initiative.
Our Take: The endorsement of a blueprint on responsible AI use in the military by 60 nations, including the US, highlight a growing international commitment to addressing the risk of AI-driven warfare, yet China’s refusal to support the document signals potential geopolitical divisions on the matter. This development introduces new complexities in AI governance, particularly in the military context, where actors such as terrorist groups and non-compliant states may exploit the absence of universal regulations. The lack of global consensus could lead to fragmented approaches to AI regulation, increasing the potential for unchecked military AI advancements and AI-enabled weapons proliferation, while for businesses operating across borders, the risk of regulatory uncertainty could impact sectors tied to defense, cybersecurity, and technology compliance strategies.
Read More: Reuters, Nikkei Asia [paywall], Atlantic Council
Climate: Scientist warns that some glaciers around Salzburg continue loss of mass; at risk of disappearing
Glacier researches surveying glaciers in Salzburg, Austria, report that some have lost half their ice in just 25 years.
Our Take: Austrian scientists are revising their estimates on the rate of retreat of Austria’s glaciers, with warming temperatures casing a more rapid retreat than first projected. The Schneeferner glacier in Germany has already lost its glacier status, and the Jamtalferner glacier in Austria is expected to follow within the next couple of years. Scientists believe the Alpine ecosystem can survive at 1.5 or 2.0 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels, albeit reduced in size, and could recover over the longer term if warming is stopped.
Read More: Euronews, Austrian Academy of Sciences
ESG: Consumers and C-suite diverge on climate importance
A new Bain & Co. study of US business and consumers finds that CEOs as deprioritizing sustainability at the same time as consumers are becoming increasingly focused on the climate.
Read More: C-suite level interest in sustainability has fallen off from a 2021 and 2022 peak, as companies have faced the realities of how difficult decarbonization is and have stepped away from a focus on ESG in general due to political polarization. At the same time, however, climate has become more important to the average consumer and B2B client, and pressure may increase as companies approach 2030 climate goals.
Our Take: Bain & Company, WSJ Pro [paywall]
