Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,570 words and a 10-minute read.
Global: US considers JASSM cruise missiles for Ukraine, shifting the strategic landscape
According to Reuters, the US is close to deciding on providing Ukraine with Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), long-range cruise missiles with the capability to hit targets deep within Russia’s borders.
Our Take: The debate over providing JASSM cruise missiles to Ukraine is taking place against the backdrop of Ukraine’s deteriorating defense line in the Donbas and Ukraine’s urging for authorization to use western-provided long-range missiles in cross-border attacks. Thus far, the US has withheld authorization, citing escalation risks. However, with control over the city of Pokrovsky in the balance, putting at risk Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front, Washington and NATO allies risk calculations may shift in favor of controlled escalation. Deployment to an active battlefield would also provide a test bed for their use in modern warfare, with implications for NATO-Russia strategic posture. The Russian foreign minister issued a warning to the US to not lose sight of the “sense of mutual deterrence” that underpins the strategic balance of power since the Cold War.
Read More: Reuters, CNA, Reuters
Europe: The UK limits some licenses for arms exports to Israel, citing risks of international humanitarian law violations
Britain announced immediate suspension of 30 arms export licenses with Israel, stating that the decision is not a blanket ban nor arms embargo, and was reached out of concern that UK equipment might be used to commit serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
Our Take: The UK decision appears to have been carefully calibrated to limit exposure to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, while excluding items that are used in the multi-nation F-35 joint fight program so as to not impact policy decisions of partner nations. In managing one set of risks, the Starmer government now faces political risks from domestic constituencies who believe the measures either went too far or not far enough. Furthermore, the new Labour government’s relationship with Israel starts off in crisis; the Israeli government has strongly criticized the move, calling it shameful and that it would embolden Hamas. Other countries have limited arms sales since the start of the war, such as Canada, the Netherlands, Spain and Belgium. The US issued a statement that the UK decision would not alter US policy, meaning that the US will continue to export arms to Israel. The issue is polarizing, and without a broader consensus among western governments on a strategy to end the war, limited actions such as the UK decision will have marginal impact on the decision-making of the warring parties.
Read More: Reuters, Washington Post [paywall]
Middle East: Israelis protest for hostage deal, against Netanyahu
The largest anti-Netanyahu protests in Israel since the onset of the war continued after the weekend, as thousands of Israelis protested for a quicker conclusion to the war in Gaza and the return of hostages. Protests were sparked by the discovery of six hostages recovered from Gaza had survived for almost a year before being killed shortly before their discovery.
Our Take: The protests, which included street demonstrations and an hours-long general strike, demonstrates Netanyahu’s precarious political situation at home. Critics have accused the prime minister of extending the war out of personal concerns – such as avoiding post-war elections that could unseat Netanyahu and open him up to paused criminal charges – rather than the country’s best interests. For now, Netanyahu is unlikely to bend to pro-ceasefire protesters, who mostly do not overlap with the hard-right coalition that is keeping him in power (members of which have threatened to withdraw over policy decisions already).
Read More: Washington Post [paywall], Time, The Times of Israel
Americas: Colombian fuel price protests could endanger oil production
Colombia’s major cities ground to a halt amid strikes and protests by truckers, who took issue with the beginning of a phased end to Colombia’s fuel subsidies.
Our Take: The strikes have already begun to impact transportation throughout the country, and Colombia’s main producer, Ecopetrol, warned that the strikes – alongside unrelated attacks on two of its pipelines – could threaten oil production in coming days. The government has called for these reductions for years, arguing that the $240 million monthly cost of fuel subsidies is unaffordable for the economically struggling country. Extended protests could impact the country’s economy and the stability of its government.
Read More: Reuters, Oil Price, Washington Post [paywall]
Asia-Pacific: Pope Francis arrives in Indonesia as first stop on unprecedented Asia tour
Pope Francis landed began the first leg of a historical Asia-Pacific tour expected to urge global action on climate change and religious extremism as part of his longest trip to date.
Our Take: Pope Francis’ visit to Indonesia, his first stop on a 12-day tour through Asia, underscores the Vatican’s commitment to fostering interfaith dialogue in regions with Catholic minorities. His meeting with Muslim leaders, including the signing of an interfaith declaration, highlights efforts to bridge religious divides in the world’s largest Muslim-majority country. The visit’s significance extends beyond religious diplomacy, as it amplifies his ongoing advocacy for environmental protection in countries such as Indonesia that face acute climate challenges. Despite his ailing health, this ambitious tour reflects the pope’s continued focus on global outreach, with potential geopolitical implications, particularly regarding the relationship between the Vatican and China.
Read More: Reuters, Time, South China Morning Post [paywall]
Africa: China launches major African summit to win over leaders amid Western pressure
Delegations from numerous African countries are in Beijing for a three-day summit where China seeks to position itself as a major partner amidst slowing development loans and growing tensions with the West.
Our Take: China’s high-profile summit with African leaders in Beijing underscores its determination to solidify influence in Africa amidst rising competition from the West and internal economic challenges. The shift toward “small yet beautiful” investments signals a recalibration of China’s development strategy, emphasizing sustainability and green technology in response to criticisms of unsustainable debt and environmental tolls. As African leaders push for more balanced trade relationships and debt relief, China’s economic pivot highlights its focus on maintaining its strategic foothold while projecting itself as a leader for the Global South. The gathering also reinforces Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions, as African nations’ political backing becomes increasingly crucial in its competition with Western powers.
Read More: CNN, South China Morning Post [paywall], Council on Foreign Relations
Trade and Compliance: Leaks reveal covert trade channel between Russia and India
According to Russian state correspondence seen by the Financial Times, Russia secretly planned to spend around $1 billion on acquiring sensitive goods and building facilities in India to support its war effort, using channels hidden from the West.
Our Take: The revelation that Russia has been covertly sourcing sensitive goods from India for its war effort in Ukraine raises significant geopolitical and economic concerns. The plan, involving the use of rupees from oil sales to India to acquire dual-use technologies, places New Delhi in a precarious position, especially as its trade relationship with Moscow deepens. With the US recently threatening secondary sanctions on countries hosting Russian banks, this development risks straining New Delhi’s growing partnership with Washington, particularly given India’s role in supplying critical components to Moscow. The situation underscores the delicate balance New Delhi must navigate between its strategic autonomy and mounting global pressures.
Read More: Financial Times [paywall], Financial Times [paywall], American Enterprise Institute
Climate Change: American bridges deteriorating as extreme heat and flooding accelerates
Researchers on the impact of extreme weather events on infrastructure find that US bridges are aging prematurely and pose risks across the nation.
Our Take: According to the Federal Highway Administration, the average age of existing bridges is 42 years, while 50 years has been considered the average service life. Deferred maintenance, however, has created a huge backlog, with the agency listing nearly 160,000 US bridges as substandard. The Biden administration’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law established the Bridge Investment Program and allocated $40 billion over a five-year period to repair or rebuild bridges. While the US is making progress since 2020 in reducing the number of deficient bridges in poor condition, if incidents of flooding and extreme heat significantly increase the number of bridges in need of emergency repairs, this trend would be at risk. Bridge structural failures can have broad negative impact, from health and safety, to increased commuter costs for motorists, trucking costs inflating the prices of goods, and increased emissions from added congestion.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], PLOS ONE, American Road & Transportation Builders Association
ESG: Reuters survey shows companies walking back DEI commitments
A Reuters review of corporate statements found that at least eight major companies dropped their DEI programs or tweaked their policies in 2023. Changes include ending participation in DEI-related industry groups or ending bonus or incentive programs tied to diversity.
Our Take: These tweaks – sometimes driven by company leadership and sometimes by shareholder votes – come after years of political backlash to policies that promote diversity, and during which the very term DEI has become a cultural lightning rod. Some analysts and DEI experts argue that DEI has simply seen a rebranding (going under the umbrella of culture) and that DEI remains strong according to surveys of C-suite executives. On the other hand, DEI job postings have been trending down, and the Supreme Court’s ruling striking down affirmative action has made companies wary of potential legal action.
Read More: Reuters, New York Times [paywall], Washington Post [paywall]
