Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,138 words and a 7-minute read.
Global
Solid growth expected for global economy, per Reuters poll
A Reuters poll of around 500 economists reveals expectations that global economic growth will remain robust, with more cuts in interest rates and buoyed by a strong US economy.
Our Take: The poll expects the global economy to grow at a rate of up to 3.0% next year, tracking somewhat with the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook. The IMF characterized growth as “lackluster” citing downgraded expectations for China, for one. Both reports note the role of the US in leading growth in advanced economics. That said, uncertainty is high, with potential trade policy changes after the US elections as well as risks of intensification of geopolitical rifts impacting trade, investment and the free flow of ideas, threatening the resiliency of supply chains.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], IMF
Europe
Germany orders shutdown of all Iranian consulates
Germany plans to close three Iranian consulates in response to the execution of German-Iranian dual national Jamshid Sharmahd.
Our Take: The execution has tipped German-Iranian relations to a low level, but not to breaking of diplomatic relations. Germany is expected to press for EU-wide sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The killing of a political hostage is also expected to put pressure on the EU to be more aggressive in its policy towards Iranian hostage taking. More than 15 EU citizens are being held by Iran. The deterioration of German-Iran relations will also have impact on the broader issue of EU-Iran relations and any residual efforts by the E3 (UK, France and Germany) to restart the Iran nuclear deal.
Read More: Deutsche Welle, Barons, European Commission
Middle East
US officials draft Israel-Lebanon peace plan
US officials are in Israel working on a draft agreement to end the war in Lebanon. The agreement would allow Israel to continue striking Lebanon for two months in response to imminent threats, while withdrawing from Lebanese territory within a week.
Our Take: Neither Lebanon nor Hizballah are likely to accept the proposal, which they say gives Israel too much leeway to keep attacking, but sources say they do not want to publicly shoot down the deal in order to keep negotiations going. The Israeli security establishment is reportedly hoping for a diplomatic solution in Lebanon, believing that they have achieved most of their goals there, although Prime Minister Netanyahu apparently does not anticipate a deal before the US elections.
Read More: The Wall Street Journal [paywall], Axios
Americas
Judicial branch in Mexico loses further power
Eight of Mexico’s Supreme Court justices resigned rather than participate in judicial elections next year – part of a contentious judicial reform passed under the last president. Concurrently, Mexico’s lower house passed sweeping new laws allowing lawmakers to make significant changes to the country’s constitution.
Our Take: Both moves come at a tense moment for Mexico, in which the major branches of government are barreling toward open conflict over the fundamental makeup of the judicial system and the role it should play in the country’s democracy. The judiciary has been significantly weakened in recent months, as past President AMLO passed a raft of reforms that make all judges elected, among other changes. Rights groups have warned that the changes threaten human rights, while businesses have warned that the lack of stability and politicization could make the business environment unstable, and maybe even impact the USMCA.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], New York Times [paywall], Wilson Center
Asia-Pacific
UN calls for probe into killings during Bangladesh unrest
A senior UN human rights official urged a comprehensive probe into all deaths and rights abuses during the violent unrest surrounding the fall of Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Our Take: The UN’s concern reflects international calls for accountability relating to the human rights abuses committed by the Hasina government preceding her resignation. The Bangladesh interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, has already sought her extradition from India, where she is in exile, to face charges of crimes against humanity. Yet, the interim government continues to face political volatility, particularly as vigilantes have threatened and attacked pro-Hasina figures in recent years, potentially complicating an international effort to bring about justice.
Read More: Associated Press, Washington Post [paywall], Human Rights Watch
Trade & Compliance
Seoul imposes export controls affecting North Korea’s ability to procure solid-fuel missile components
South Korea announced new export controls on 15 items essential for solid-fuel missiles to restrict North Korea's ballistic missile development, enhancing existing international sanctions.
Our Take: Seoul’s recent move follows the North Korea’s launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on October 31, which triggered a joint condemnation from South Korea, Japan, and the United States. With Pyongyang’s intervention in Ukraine and increasingly belligerent posturing, the South Korean government is at a crossroads where it will decide how it will refine its policy toward its northern neighbor going forward. However, given North Korea’s history of finding ways to evade international sanctions, Seoul’s attempt to ramp up economic pressure on Pyongyang’s ability to further develop its military capabilities could be an uphill battle, especially as North Korea is able to utilize its relationships with countries like Iran and Russia to bypass such restrictions.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], NK News, US Department of State
Disruptive Technology
US court questions legal basis for reinstating net neutrality
Federal appellate judges this week expressed doubt about the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC)'s authority to reinstate net neutrality rules during a hearing on an industry lawsuit challenging the agency's power.
Our Take: The court’s skepticism centers on whether the FCC has the legislative mandate to reclassify broadband as a telecommunications service, which would enable stricter regulation. Emblematic of a broader policy debate on the role of internet service providers in managing online traffic fairly and without favoritism, the case highlights legal and regulatory hurdles in the FCC’s push for open internet oversight. The outcome could redefine the extent of agency authority over critical digital infrastructure, with potential impacts on both industry practices and public access to neutral internet services.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], Brookings Institution
Climate Change
Catastrophic flash floods in Spain caused by destructive weather system fueled by climate change
Catastrophic flash floods killed at least 72 people in Spain and were caused by a destructive weather system in which cold and warm air meet and produce powerful rain clouds, a pattern believed to be growing more frequent due to climate change.
Our Take: Eastern and Southern Spain are particularly vulnerable to the phenomenon, known locally as DANA, a Spanish acronym for high-altitude isolated depression, as an increase in temperature of the Mediterranean and warmer and more humid conditions contribute to extreme episodes of rainfall. With every fraction of a degree of global warming, the atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier bursts of rainfall, according to climate scientists.
Read More: Euronews, Carbon Brief
