Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,081 words and a 7-minute read.
Global
Biden administration officials call for expanding nuclear-weapons force to deter aggression from adversaries
The Wall Street Journal reported on a highly classified directive signed by President Biden earlier this year instructing the Pentagon to develop options to deter aggression by China, Russia and North Korea. A declassified version of the resulting report notes that it may be necessary to adapt current US nuclear force capabilities, posture, composition or size.
Our Take: While this report was generated under the outgoing Biden administration, nuclear capabilities and US overall military posture will be an important consideration for the Trump administration. In his first term, Trump supported continued strengthening of US strategic capabilities, and is likely to do so in his upcoming term, after conducting a Nuclear Posture Review.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Center for Security Studies
Europe
EU Parliament’s leadership confirmation hits speedbump
Parliamentary confirmation of Ursula von der Leyen’s new team of Commissioners is stuck in a deadlock, threatening to delay the start of the new EU executive.
Our Take: National and EU politics are on stage as parliamentary blocs maneuver for power and leaders seek to influence national politics from Brussels. In one point of contention, liberals and greens are urging Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to take a stronger stand against the right-wing coalition, with some urging rejecting Hungary’s commissioner Olivér Várhelyi. Von der Leyen has intervened to broker compromises, but thus far unsuccessfully. The disputes risk delaying the approval of the new executive team at a time of significant geopolitical tensions, which could feed a lack of confidence in Brussels’ leadership in Europe and more broadly.
Read More: Euronews, Atlantic Council, European Council on Foreign Relations
Middle East
Israel moves forward with Orthodox draft
Israel’s government formally sent draft notices to 7,000 Orthodox Jews, enacting a long-contested policy reversing service exemptions for Israel’s most religious.
Our Take: Military service for Israel’s Orthodox Jewish men, or Haredim, has long been a hot-button issue in Israeli domestic politics. Non-Orthodox Israelis, for whom military service is compulsory, resent that the Haredim are granted exemptions on the grounds that military service would conflict with their religious traditions, especially given that the country is at war. At the same time, the Haredim have typically been strong supporters of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his conservative coalition members. The enlistment orders will likely prompt anti-government protests, as well as potential divisions within Netanyahu’s already fractious coalition, as some deeply oppose the Haredi draft.
Read More: Washington Post [paywall], Council on Foreign Relations, Israel Policy Forum
Americas
Argentina considers withdrawing from Paris Accords alongside US
Argentinian President Javier Milei said that he is considering withdrawing the country from the Paris Climate Agreement.
Our Take: Analysts worry that Milei’s withdrawal could set off a domino effect, especially as US President Trump is expected to withdraw from the accords for the second time when he takes office. While Argentina’s withdrawal on its own will not be hugely impactful, several withdrawals could hobble the international climate framework, impairing global efforts to reduce emissions and engineer a green transition.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], Politico
Asia-Pacific
Biden to hold talks with South Korean and Japanese leaders as concerns about North Korea increase
President Joe Biden met with South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Peru to address North Korea’s increased missile tests and its growing military ties with Russia.
Our Take: Biden, in his lame duck period, has doubled down on efforts to solidify traditional US alliances ahead of President-elect Trump’s return to office. North Korea’s provocations, including troop deployments to Russia for its war against Ukraine, intersect with uncertainty surrounding the next US administration’s “America First” policies. While the Indo-Pacific policy of Trump’s second administration remains ambiguous, Japan and South Korea will likely face pressure to enhance independent security measures, but could still maintain alignment with US strategy in a more volatile geopolitical landscape.
Read More: Associated Press, Stimson Center
Trade and Compliance
Democratic lawmakers press Biden to sanction far-right Israeli officials
Nearly 90 congressional Democrats are calling on President Joe Biden to sanction two far-right Israeli officials over their involvement in inciting settler violence in the West Bank.
Our Take: There are growing divisions in US politics over Washington’s longstanding support for Israel, as this group of Democratic lawmakers emphasize accountability for actions seen as destabilizing the West Bank. The proposed sanctions, which would fall under an executive order Biden issued in February to address settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, align with global concerns over settler violence and its implications for the viability of a two-state solution, mirroring similar discussions taking place in Europe. Though the incoming US administration would likely revoke the proposed sanctions, should they pass, and cancel Biden’s executive order, any measures taken now could influence international norms on addressing such conflicts.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], The Hill
Disruptive Technology
UK telecom company introduces AI “grandmother” to engage scammers and waste their time
UK telecom company O2 has developed an AI grandmother named Daisy, trained on anonymized scammer data, to engage scammers in lengthy, aimless conversations and waste their time.
Our Take: O2’s use of artificial intelligence to combat scam calls by exploiting scammers’ own tactics presents a potential precedent for future AI-enhanced cybersecurity efforts. Daisy not only reduces the time scammers have to target real victims but also raises awareness of the risks associated with fraudulent calls. A recent survey by the company revealed that 7 in 10 (71%) of people in the UK express a desire to get revenge on scammers who attempted to trick them, and with public sentiment favoring proactive measures against scammers, this utilization of AI in cybersecurity could pave the way for similar tools to get adopted across industries.
Read More: India Today, TechRadar
Climate Change
UN reports dismal progress on Global Methane Pledge actions
Since the UN International Methane Emissions Observatory began monitoring for methane leaks from oil and gas infrastructure last year, it has issued 1,200 alerts to governments and companies, with only 1% garnering a “substantive response” with action to plug the leaks.
Our Take: With improved technical ability to monitor methane emissions via satellites, tracking leaks is much easier, but the politics of taking action remain challenging. Many countries do not have the legal basis, policy leverage or political consensus to compel companies to plug leaks.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], UN Environment Programme, International Energy Agency
