Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,126 words and a 7-minute read.
Global
Suspected Russian sabotage operation targeting US-bound plans thwarted
The Wall Street Journal reported that two incendiary devices shipped in an air cargo carrier were a test run for planting bombs on US and Canadian-bound cargo planes.
Our Take: Reports on sabotage attempts linked to Russian operatives in Europe are growing, but this is the first incident that was made public on targeting aviation. An incendiary device in the cargo hold can lead to a catastrophic explosion and bring a plane down. The US would consider this a terrorist attack and would seek to sanction the perpetrators accordingly. Homeland Security, in its 2024 threat assessment, identified threats to aviation and air cargo systems as a risk to US critical infrastructure.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], CBS News, US Department of Homeland Security
Europe
Germany clamps down on German militant separatist group
German authorities arrested eight suspected members of a right-wing militant group in a series of raids across three countries and involving hundreds of officers.
Our Take: The targeted group, Saechsische Separatisten (Saxon Separatists), is an extreme right group that was plotting to seize power in the state of Saxony and other eastern German states to establish governmental and societal structures inspired by National Socialism. The group is relatively new, established in 2020, and is part of the resurgence of the far-right in Europe. There reportedly is cross membership with the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which won elections earlier this year in Thuringia and came in second in Saxony.
Read More: Deutsche Welle, Euronews
Middle East
Netanyahu fires popular defense minister
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a conservative politician who has emerged as one of Netanyahu’s fiercest critics over Israel’s inability to end the war and bring home Israeli hostages. Netanyahu cited an erosion of trust.
Our Take: Netanyahu had tried to fire Gallant once before, but backed down after Gallant apologized and there was a public outcry. While Israeli military policy in Gaza will likely not change dramatically following Gallant’s departure, although Gallant was thought to be something of a moderating in force in calling for a negotiated end to the conflict in exchange for hostage return – rather than seeking a total military victory over Hamas. However, Netanyahu and allies have long pushed for a military conclusion, reflected in the continued offensive in the enclave. Renewed popular protest could emerge as a result of Gallant’s dismissal, as the official is popular, and many Israelis oppose what is seen as Netanyahu’s attempt to consolidate power.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], NPR
Asia-Pacific
Two Chinese nationals shot and injured in Pakistan
Two Chinese nationals on Tuesday were shot and wounded by a security guard in Pakistan’s commercial hub, Karachi.
Our Take: The guard was arrested and authorities claimed the attack was not related to militant violence, though the incident underscores a larger concern of security challenges facing Chinese workers in Pakistan. Past instances of violence on Chinese nationals in Pakistan, particularly in regions with significant Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, has prompted Beijing to consider taking security matters into its own hand. While the motives for this recent incident remain unclear, the continuance of threats to Chinese workers’ safety threatens to weigh on Beijing and Islamabad’s long-term strategic relationship.
Read More: Associated Press, South China Morning Post [paywall], Lowy Institute
Trade & Compliance
China files complaint at WTO over EU tariffs on Chinese EVs
China launched a complaint at the WTO over the European Union’s final tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, arguing that the measures are improper and impede a global transition toward greener technologies.
Our Take: The EU has defended its tariffs as necessary to maintain competition, citing perceived advantages from Chinese government subsidies. Conversely, Beijing has framed the tariffs as protectionist measures which damage the global EV market. While the escalation of the dispute to the WTO highlights strategic friction between the two economies as they compete for leadership in green technology sectors, both sides reserve interest in negotiating a solution to avoid further escalation.
Read More: Associated Press, CNBC, Bloomberg [paywall]
Disruptive Technology
AI-enabled attacks seen as top emerging risk for enterprises
Cyber-attacks enhanced by artificial intelligence turned out to be the top emerging business risk throughout the first three quarters of the year, according to a Gartner survey of senior risk and assurance executives that came out last week.
Our Take: The rapid of emergence of AI-enabled attacks as the top business risk among executives indicates rising concerns over potential threats posed by malicious applications of AI, particularly or social engineering and targeted cyber intrusion. While incidents involving advanced AI-engineered attacks remain limited, the anticipation of future AI-driven cyber capabilities has propelled this risk to the forefront, underscoring the urgent need for proactive defenses. Prioritizing this risk reflects broader apprehensions about AI’s dual-use nature in cybersecurity, with potential implications for both enterprise resilience and regulatory frameworks in an AI-integrated digital landscape.
Read More: Cybersecurity Dive, Gartner
Climate Change
Elevated risks for extreme fire conditions in California
The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for hazardous fire weather conditions in the southern half of California.
Our Take: Santa Ana and Diablo winds will bring extremely dry, offshore winds of up to 100 mph, a top risk for fueling wildfires. Power companies are warning that some residents may be subject to safety shutoffs to reduce the possibility of fires being sparked by damaged equipment. More than 25 million of the state’s 39 million people are under warnings or fire weather watches. In recent years, the area burned by wildfire in California has dramatically increased, and unprecedented fires are occurring in sensitive ecosystems like higher elevations and along the coast. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment projected up to a 77 percent increase in average area burned and a 50 percent increase in the frequency of fires exceeding 25,000 acres by 2100.
Read More: USA Today, California Climate Adaption Strategy
ESG
Canada announces plans to cut oil and gas emissions by 35%
Canada announced a draft regulation capping carbon emissions from its oil and gas industry and seeking to reduce the emission of greenhouse gasses.
Our Take: The move is a dramatic one, but it has been met with criticism from all sides of the issue. The traditional energy sector has argued that the rule, which aims to cut emissions from its energy sector by 35% by 2030 through measures including financial incentives, will cripple the country’s energy industry and harm the global economy. Environmental activists, on the other hand, have long called for Canada to plan for a full phase-out of fossil fuels, which this plan does not address and which Prime Minister Trudeau has never endorsed.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], ESG Today
