Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 996 words and a 7-minute read.
Global: At 10-year anniversary, US and allies discuss the future of the Counter-Islamic State mission
US and NATO allies met in Brussels last week to discuss the future of the counter-terrorism coalition targeting the Islamic State.
Our Take: Sometimes called a Forever War, the US and allies are taking stock of the challenges facing efforts to quell the resurgence of the Islamic State in Africa and Afghanistan. The coalition no longer has operational bases in Afghanistan and in West Africa, and with the US agreement with Iraq to end coalition operations there by 2025, it may no longer have a base to counter the Islamic State in Syria. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have drawn attention and resources away from the counter-terrorism mission, even as the terrorist group is growing in capabilities in Africa and Europe.
Read More: Reuters, Defense News
Europe: Moldovan citizens vote on the future orientation of their country
Elections in Moldova were held on Sunday, with voters approving a referendum by a slim majority to pursue EU accession, amid concerns of vote interference.
Our Take: The current pro-Western president, Maia Sandu, is seeking a second term and won 42% of the vote, setting up a run-off election on November 3. Sandu, a pro-Europe, pro-democracy candidate, will face former prosecutor-general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who advocates for a “balanced” foreign policy, code for keeping Moldova outside the European sphere of influence and aligned with Russia. The referendum was far closer than projected, leading Sandu to allege vote manipulation by criminal gangs paid by pro-Russian actors.
Read More: Euronews, Reuters, European Policy Center
Americas: Mexicans protest cartel strategy
Hundreds protested the brutal death of a Mexican mayor, calling on the government to do more to investigate his murder and curb cartel violence.
Our Take: The mayor, who had been sworn in to lead Chilpancingo just days before, was beheaded, likely by cartels, just days after taking office. The city is a hotspot for violence driven by the drug trade, and a lack of action on his death has spurred galvanized popular sentiment against President Sheinbaum’s already unpopular strategy to counter cartel violence. Dubbed “hugs not bullets” by critics, Sheinbaum and her predecessor AMLO have favored an approach to cartels based on services, rather than increased militarization.
Read More: Reuters, Wall Street Journal [paywall], Financial Times [paywall]
Asia-Pacific: China advises India to exercise caution on Taiwan issue following Mumbai office debut
China on Thursday urged India to tread with caution on Taiwan in order to improve Sino-Indian relations following the opening of another Taiwanese de-facto consulate in Mumbai.
Our Take: The opening of Taiwan’s third representative office in India signifies closer cooperation between New Delhi and Taipei, especially amid strained Sino-Indian relations. China’s response reflects its ongoing concerns over India’s willingness to engage with Taiwan outside official diplomatic channels. While this development may further complicate Sino-Indian relations, especially as both countries continue to navigate border tensions, Taiwan’s growing role in India’s economic diversification, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors, adds another layer of complexity the regional geopolitical landscape.
Read More: Reuters, Global Taiwan Institute
Disruptive Technology: FBI arrests man accused of SEC hack, alleging bitcoin manipulation
The FBI on Thursday arrested a 25-year-old Alabama man for hacking the US Security and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s X account this year as part of an alleged conspiracy to manipulate bitcoin prices.
Our Take: This development demonstrates the persistent vulnerabilities in major financial institutions’ digital infrastructure, particularly amid the growing use of social media platforms for market communication. The false announcement, which briefly spiked bitcoin prices, highlights the high stakes of cyberattacks in the cryptocurrency space, where even temporary misinformation can lead to significant market disruption. The case also raises concerns about SIM-swapping attacks and the potential for further breaches if security practices, such as multifactor authentication, are not enforced more consistently.
Energy Transition: DOE makes $3 billion conditional commitments to two sustainable aviation fuel projects
The US Department of Energy Loan Programs Office has made conditional commitments to two companies in the Great Plains region that are working to turn crops and waste feedstocks into jet fuel.
Our Take: These are the first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects to gain USG loan guarantee backing under the Inflation Reduction Act and follow the Treasury Department’s tax-credit guidelines that are expected to improve profitability for SAF refineries. Air travel contributes about 3.3% of the US’s CO2 emissions every year. In 2021, the US launched the SAF Grand Challenge, with a goal of accelerating the acceptance and growth of SAF as a primary strategy in aviation decarbonization, setting targets of a 50% reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional fuel, 3 billion gallons per year of domestic SAF production by 2030 and 35 billion gallons of SAF to satisfy 100% of domestic demand by 2050. According to the DOE’s September 2024 report tracking metrics, the US has a clear pathway to achieve the Grand Challenge 2030 goals. This assumes that the next US administration will keep current energy transition policies in place, including the incentives under IRA.
Read More: Canary Media, US Department of Energy
ESG: ESG funds grow, post high median return despite declining sentiment
Sustainable funds hit $3.5 trillion in assets under management in 2024, despite slowing inflows. Sustainable funds also posted a 1.7% median return, outperforming traditional funds’ 1.1%.
Our Take: The data is relatively optimistic for sustainable investing, which has seen declining interesting following a boom year in 2022, with rising outflows and slowing inflows across 2023 and 2024. This could reflect a trend ESG analysts are calling “green hushing”: while investors and industry leaders have reduced public statements on ESG amid political backlash, investor interest in sustainable funds remains relatively stable. The steadiness is a good sign for those interested in ESG investing, although their promise has certainly decreased – the funds were once hailed as the future of the market.
Read More: ESG News, Reuters, ESG Investor
