What We're Watching Today, September 30, 2024

Overview

What We’re Watching Today is 1,527 words and a 10-minute read.

Global: Calls for vaccine option to mitigate risks of bird flu

US farmers are calling on the government to allow vaccinations for chickens, turkeys and cows to protect them from bird flu and reduce risks from migrating wildfowl, joining an emerging international movement towards bird flu vaccines.

Our Take: This bird flu strain, also called avian influenza H5N1A, is becoming an animal pandemic, jumping from wild birds, to poultry farms, to cows, but also is crossing over into human population in small numbers, with human cases in 2023 reported in Ecuador, Cambodia, Chile, China, UK and the US. Wild bird deaths alone are estimated in the millions, with 600,000 in South America since 2023. At least 26 species of mammals have been infected, including cows, minks, bears, seals and sea lions. The current strain of bird flu is believed to be a mutation from H5N1 which originated in China’s southern Guangdong region, among aquatic birds in 1996, seemed to die out, and reemerged as H5N1A in 2020. Scientists are monitoring the outbreak for signs that mammal-to-human transmission start accelerating, risking the next global human pandemic.

Read More: Reuters, World Health Organization, BBC

Europe: Albania moves forward in EU accession process

EU ambassadors agreed to move Albania to the next stage of its bid to join the bloc by holding an Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) on the first so-called "cluster" of negotiating chapters on 15 October.

Our Take: Moving to negotiations on Cluster 1 (Fundamentals) is a big step forward. This cluster includes several chapters: Procurement, Statistics, Judiciary and Fundamental rights, Justice, Freedom and Security and Financial control. It also decouples Albania’s accession pat from North Macedonia, which has stalled over the requirement for North Macedonia to agree to amend its constitution to include minorities. While this is a positive development, the downside risk that North Macedonia faces is falling further behind as Western Balkan states make measured progress on the accession requirements.

Read More: Euronews, Schengen News, Atlantic Council

Middle East: Hizballah leader Nasrallah killed in massive Israeli strike on Beirut

Israel and Hizballah confirmed that a massive Israeli air strike on southern Beirut on Friday had successfully killed longtime Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Our Take: The death of Nasrallah, who had led Hizballah for 32 years, alongside several other senior leaders, is a major blow that Hizballah may struggle to recover from. Its senior leadership is already decimated, and its organizational structure has suffered, especially after the recent pager attack. However, with the stage set for a full-scale war after almost a year of escalating conflict over the country’s shared border, this attack – or any other in coming days – may well be the one that provokes Hizballah into beginning an all-out war. Israel is clearly prepared for the prospect, having massed reservists on its northern border and previewed a potential ground invasion over the last week. The Israel-Hizballah conflict has not been so primed to tip into full warfare since the regional conflict began.

Read More: Washington Post [paywall], The Economist [paywall], New York Times [paywall], New York Times [paywall]

Asia-Pacific: Shigeru Ishiba elected as Japan’s next prime minister

Shigeru Ishiba on Friday was elected leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), beating out eight other candidates, and ensuring his accession as the country’s next prime minister, following the resignation of incumbent Fumio Kishida.

Our Take: Ishiba’s victory in the LDP leadership race, his fifth attempt, signals both continuity and change for Japan’s political landscape. As a former defense minister with a reputation for being outspoken, he is expected to prioritize national security, particularly in relation to China and North Korea, while also focusing on restoring public trust in the LDP following a series of political scandals. Ishiba’s narrow margin of victory among Diet members reflect internal party divisions, suggesting that he may need to quickly consolidate power, likely through a snap election. His push for an “Asian NATO” and revisions to Japan’s defense policies also have the potential to reshape security dynamics in East Asia and the larger Indo-Pacific region.

Read More: Nikkei Asia [paywall], The Japan Times [paywall], Council on Foreign Relations

Africa: World Bank announces plans to shield projects in Uganda from anti-LGBT law

Reuters reported on Friday that the World Bank is enacting measures to safeguard recipients of lending to Uganda from being discriminated by a hard-hitting anti-gay law in the country.

Our Take: The World Bank’s decision to implement independent monitoring for its projects in Uganda in response to the country’s Anti-Homosexuality Act reflects a cautious approach to balancing financial support with human rights concerns. While the organization continues its suspension of new lending, these mitigation measures aim to ensure that recipients are not discriminated against, yet they have drawn criticism from LGBTQ+ activists who see them as inadequate. This development highlights the risk of increased scrutiny of Uganda’s policies by international financial institutions and the potential for further strain on its economy, particularly in critical sectors such as infrastructure. Moreover, this move signals heightened global tensions between human rights advocacy and economic partnerships, which risk extending to other nations with similar policies.

Read More: Reuters, Bloomberg [paywall], World Bank

Trade & Compliance: Biden maintains his opposition to Nippon Steel’s bid for US Steel

US President Joe Biden on Friday stated that his disapproval of Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion bid for US Steel remains unchanged, despite his administration’s decision to extend a national security review of the planned acquisition.

Our Take: Biden’s firm opposition to Nippon Steel’s bid for US Steel underscores the political sensitivity surrounding foreign acquisitions, particularly in key industries like steel during an election cycle. Despite an extended national security review, the stance against the merger reflects concerns over US Steel’s role in domestic supply chains and job security, a crucial issue for voters in swing states such as Pennsylvania, with Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris sharing Biden’s stance. However, blocking the deal could impact future foreign investment flows into the US and affect relations with Japan, a critical ally, at a time when economic collaboration is essential for global supply chain resilience.

Disruptive Technology: Global cybersecurity workforce is slowing down

Axios reported on Friday that for the first time in five years, the global cybersecurity workforce has slowed down, as companies reduce their hiring of security professionals and cut budgets.

Our Take: The global cybersecurity workforce’s stagnation, with only a 0.1% growth in 2024, suggests a significant vulnerability for businesses and governments as cyber threats continue to rise. With a global shortage of 4.8 million cybersecurity professionals, organizations face increased exposure to attacks, compounded by budget cuts and hiring freezes. The US cybersecurity workforce shrinking by 5% year over year exacerbates this risk, even as the country has made strides in promoting cyber roles. This talent gap could leave organizations struggling to keep pace with evolving threats, underlining the need to reframe cybersecurity as a growth enabler rather than merely a compliance function.

Read More: Axios, Thomson Reuters Legal Solutions

Climate Change: Category 4 hurricane pummels Florida; risks of widespread flooding, blackouts

The American southeast is starting to clean up after devastating Hurricane Helene, which destroyed homes, roads and bridges with catastrophic flooding in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee. The storm caused at least 60 deaths, and more bodies are likely to be discovered with access to the hardest-hit areas.

Our Take: This is the fourth hurricane to make landfall in 2024. The National Weather Service warned the storm would be "one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era," but communities were not prepared for the flash floods swamping dams and roads. More than 3 million people remain without power. Some communities have been hit multiple times this year and with insurance costs rising or becoming unavailable, rebuilding may not be an option for many. NOAA correctly predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, which spans June 1 to November 30, citing a confluence of near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, La Niña conditions in the Pacific, and reduced Atlantic trade winds. Since 1951, only 13 seasons have had four or more hurricanes make mainland US landfall. Scientists attribute warming oceans to climate change.

ESG: Debt-for-nature swap under microscope

A record Galápagos debt-for-nature swap is being scrutinized by the Inter-American Development Bank’s oversight body due to concerns over transparency and potentially impacted communities.

Our Take: Last year's Galápagos-focused debt swap attracted global attention for being the first to break the $1 billion barrier, but the 24 groups involved in the complaint are frustrated about their lack of involvement in decisions and that conservation money is yet to arrive. These swaps are a fairly new way of generating conservation money for debt-laden developing countries by allowing countries to purchase discounted debt and use the savings for environmental projects. However, issues with this deal – the largest in the history of the debt-for-nature swap mechanism – could cast doubt on what is widely considered a win-win strategy to promote climate conservation.

Read More: Reuters, World Economic Forum