Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,403 words and a 9-minute read.
Global
Putin may lift self-imposed restrictions on developing short and medium-range missiles
In a speech to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russian President Putin said that Russia may lift its self-imposed restrictions on short and medium-range missiles, citing concerns about US deploying missiles in Europe.
Our Take: Russian President Putin’s comments reflect deep paranoia that the US and NATO are plotting to attack Russia and possibly invade Russian territory. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, who spoke at the same gathering, said that Russia needs to prepare for “medium-term scenarios” including a possible military conflict with NATO in Europe “in the next decade.” The Kremlin views the defensive measures being taken by the US, specifically the deployment of long-range, conventionally armed missiles to Germany after Russia deployed long-range ground-launched cruise missiles, as an escalation, designed to reduce the flight and detection time in which Moscow could respond to an attack. Russian leaders are further alarmed by Washington’s decision to loosen the rules of engagement in Ukraine, allowing Kyiv to use US-provided longer-range weapons to hit targets inside Russia. With arms control talks frozen, there is no active mechanism to manage further escalation and the growing new arms race.
Read More: Financial Times [paywall], Reuters [paywall], Newsweek
Europe
New EU sanctions on Russia targeting the “shadow fleet”
The EU adopted the 15thpackage of sanctions against Russia, targeting Moscow’s shadow fleet of oil exporting tanks and Chinese supporters.
Our Take: The new sanctions target 52 tankers, raising the total to 79 tankers barred from EU ports. Russia is using its so-called “shadow fleet” of aging tankers to circumvent western sanctions, selling crude above the price cap more successfully than the EU and US anticipated. These ships do not carry insurance issued by western companies and pose environmental risks to ports where they dock and waterways they transit, evidenced by the multiple oil spills, the most recent and largest of which is the spill from two tankers of thousands of barrels of oil off the Kerch Strait in the Black Sea. The decision by the EU to expand sanctions on tankers reflects determination to tighten enforcement to maintain the price cap designed to reduce revenue to the Kremlin to finance the war in Ukraine.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], Politico, Brookings Institution
Middle East
Turkey appears poised to invade northern Syria
The US flagged a Turkish military-build-up along its southern border, warning of a Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria.
Our Take: Syria’s northeast has long been dominated by the Syrian Kurdish militia the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed rebel group with ties to the now-banned Turkish political party and guerrilla group the Kurdistan Worker’s Party, which President Erdoğan considers an existential threat to Turkey generally and to his government in particular. Like Israel, which has decimated Syria’s navy and arms arsenal, Turkey may now be capitalizing on chaos within Syria’s borders (and the support of the now dominant HTS and other groups) to seek to unseat the SDF and further weaken independent Kurdish ideologies in Turkey and on its border. While the US has called for de-escalation, its ability or desire to engage further to support its Kurdish allies may be limited – especially as President Trump prepares to take office.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Chatham House
Americas
Trudeau coalition on the ropes
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau’s hold on power slipped again on Monday with the resignation of Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, a key ally.
Our Take: Freeland’s resignation follows announcements by four other cabinet members that they would not seek reelection, and was quickly followed by another. More than any other lost ally, the withdrawal of Freeland’s support – as a longtime Trudeau ally and visible member of Canada’s Liberal government – demonstrates the dire state of the Trudeau government amid plummeting domestic approval rates and rising challenges, domestic and foreign, especially ahead of the incoming Trump Administration in the US. Critics, including Freeland, have increased calls for Trudeau to step down and trigger a leadership challenge within his own party (his popular foreign minister, Mélanie Joly, is a favorite to win), or call new elections.
Read More: New York Times [paywall], Politico, Economist [paywall]
Asia-Pacific
Vietnam to merge ministries and reduce state bureaucracy in administrative overhaul
Vietnam is planning significant bureaucratic reforms, including the elimination of several ministries, agencies, and TV channels to reduce red tape, with the proposal still subject to changes before a February parliamentary vote.
Our Take: Vietnam’s ambitious restructuring plan, led by newly appointed Communist Party General Secretary To Lam, indicates an urgent effort to address mounting investor concerns over administrative inefficiencies and bureaucratic delays. While the reforms aim to streamline governance, the short-term transition could cause administrative bottlenecks and project approval slowdowns, risking temporary paralysis. Long-term, however, successful implementation could enhance Vietnam’s competitiveness as a manufacturing and investment hub, provided the new structures deliver the promised efficiency and transparency gains.
Read More: Bloomberg [paywall], Reuters [paywall], VietnamPlus
Africa
Hundreds arrested in Nigerian crypto-romance scam crackdown
Nigeria's anti-graft agency arrested 792 suspects during a major raid on a Lagos building allegedly used as a hub for international online fraud.
Our Take: The recent large-scale arrests serve as an example of Nigeria’s increasing efforts to address cybercrime amid growing pressure and regulatory scrutiny. Among the arrested suspects, 148 were Chinese nationals and 40 were Filipino nationals, highlighting the transnational nature of such fraud schemes, with the crackdown signaling Lagos’ intent to protect its global reputation and attract foreign investment. However, the scale of operations exposed may prompt further questions about systemic oversight and the need for stronger regulations, particularly in Nigeria’s cryptocurrency and digital asset spaces.
Read More: Africanews, Reuters [paywall], International Bar Association
Trade and Compliance
US sanctions disrupt North Korean money laundering network
The US Treasury Department sanctioned two individuals and a UAE-based entity for laundering millions of dollars from IT workers and cybercrimes to support the North Korean government, funneling funds through a front company.
Our Take: These recent sanctions highlight the persistent sophistication of North Korea’s global money laundering networks, which leverage digital assets and foreign intermediaries to bypass international restrictions. Targeting a UAE-based operation exemplifies Washington’s increasing scrutiny on financial hubs that may inadvertently facilitate illicit flows. While these actions aim to disrupt funding for Pyongyang’s weapons programs, they also raise broader questions about the vulnerabilities of global cryptocurrency systems and the enforcement capacity of international financial regulations.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], US Department of the Treasury
Disruptive Technology
House task force unveils comprehensive year-end report on AI
The US House Task Force on Artificial Intelligence (AI) released a comprehensive 253-page report outlining a policy roadmap for Congress, exploring the benefits and potential misuse of AI in social, economic, and health contexts.
Our Take: The bipartisan report indicates Congress’s evolving approach to AI governance, balancing innovation with risk mitigation across key sectors. By prioritizing sectoral regulation and avoiding overly broad restrictions, the task force demonstrates its preference for tailored, adaptable oversight. Nonetheless, unresolved issues, such as intellectual property disputes and AI’s role in national security, signal continued debate and potential policy fragmentation, especially as President-elect Trump and the Republican Party are set to take over control of all three branches of government next month. This wide-ranging report marks an important step toward concrete AI governance, but its implementation will hinge on future bipartisan consensus and sector-specific agency readiness.
Read More: The Hill, Congressman Ted Lieu, US Chamber of Commerce
Energy Transition
US Energy Department backs multi-million-dollar loan for construction of synthetic graphite manufacturing plant
The US Department of Energy (DOE), through the Loan Programs Office, has approved a direct loan of up to $765.8 million towards partial financing of a new facility in Chattanooga TN to manufacture synthetic graphite used in EVs.
Our Take: The DOE loan to the North American division of Australia-based Novonix is part of a larger US government effort to build domestic supply chains for critical minerals used in EVs and other emerging clean energy technologies. For example, through the Defense Production Act, the Department of Defense is funding graphite mining and refining operations in Alaska and Alabama. China produces 77% of the world’s graphite and refines more than 90%, dominating the market. Beijing’s decision in December 2023 to restrict the export of graphite anode material exposed the extent of market risks the US faces in its EV supply chain.
Read More: E&E News, Department of Defense, S&P Global
