Overview
What We're Watching Today is 1,279 words and a 9-minute read.
Global
Ukraine Defence Contact Group pledges additional military aid to Ukraine
The US convened the final meeting of the Biden administration for the Defence Contact Group, with members setting production goals for arms and equipment to be donated to Ukraine.
Our Take: The setting of acquisition targets will aid planning, enabling industry to more efficiently scale production to meet planned demand. The contact group also agreed to the formation of an innovation group to develop new weapons for the rapidly evolving battlefield, where drones are changing battlefield tactics. The participants also discussed the uncertainty of the future construct of the Defense Contract Group once US President-elect Trump assumes power, with participants saying aid must continue. At the meeting, the US, Canada, the UK and Germany announced new assistance and the EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, stated that the EU is ready to take over leadership if the US steps back. In a nod to realism, Trump has modified his stated timeline for reaching a peace deal from “within 24 hours” of assuming office to six months, but the bottom line is that President Trump will be focused on bringing the war to an end.
Read More: Defense One, Euronews, Politico
Europe
With new election date set, pro-Russian presidential candidate still most popular in Romania
Romania has set May 4 for the re-do of presidential elections, after the Romanian courts annulled the first round following evidence of Russian election meddling and irregular campaign funding. However, polling suggests that the ultranationalist candidate, Calin Georgescu, remains popular.
Our Take: The court decision to annul the election results was not popular and has fueled anti-establishment feelings. One poll shows at least 40% of Romanians plan to vote for Georgescu, far more than 23% who voted for him in the November poll. Georgescu opposes aid to Ukraine, is an EU- and NATO-skeptic (but is not calling for Romania to withdraw from these bodies), and his election would bring a dramatic political shift in Bucharest, whose current government strongly supports all three.
Read More: Financial Times [paywall], Politico, Wilson Center
Middle East
Lebanese parliament elects new president after two years
Lebanon’s parliament voted yesterday to elect Gen. Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), as the country’s new president, ending a years-long power vacuum that hobbled the government.
Our Take: Aoun received 99 out of 128 votes, and his success now – after more than two years of successive failures for parliament to come to an agreement – is largely attributed to the degradation of Hizballah’s power in the country in the wake of the group’s defeat to and hollowing out by the Israeli army. Aoun was seen as Washington’s preferred candidate as the US funds, trains and arms the LAF. Aoun’s election could finally help Lebanon respond to cascading crises that have battered the country and its economy for the last several years, such as the 2020 port explosion, a longstanding currency crisis, and repercussions from the Israel-Hizballah conflict in the country’s south. The country’s long-serving caretaker government could not legally engage in certain reforms or expenditures until a president was in place. Aoun has made clear his intention to continue to counter Hizballah’s waning influence, pledging that the state will maintain a monopoly on power. While observers are hopeful, progress, if it comes, will be slow – the Lebanese government has long been mired in extreme dysfunction, and needed repairs and reforms significantly eclipse the country’s dwindling budget.
Read More: Washington Post [paywall], The Economist [paywall], The Times of Israel
Americas
Nicolás Maduro sworn in for third term
Venezuelan autocrat Nicolás Maduro was inaugurated today, sealing an election that opponents, the US, and other Western countries say was stolen.
Our Take: Maduro begins his third term amid significant domestic and international backlash. His opponent, Edmundo González Urrutia, was smuggled out of the country and was granted asylum in Spain, but has continued to call for the reversal of Maduro’s election win and support from the US – widely believed to have been rigged – even as violent crackdown on protesters continue, Caracas has placed a bounty on Urrutia’s head, and Urrutia’s own son-in-law is alleged to have been kidnapped. Observers and what opposition figures remain in the country expect even further crackdowns on political dissent and human rights as Maduro begins his twelfth year in power. Maduro is expected to continue seeking closer relations with China and Russia, while ties with Washington and other Western countries will remain deeply strained.
Read More: CNN, The Guardian, Politico
Asia-Pacific
Efforts expand to find survivors in high-altitude Tibet quake
Chinese officials have relocated over 47,000 people to shelters in earthquake-hit Tibet as rescuers intensify their search for survivors, though hopes are fading due to hypothermia risks after the 6.8 magnitude quake.
Our Take: The recent earthquake that hit Tibet demonstrated the challenges of disaster response in remote, high-altitude regions. The extensive damage to homes and infrastructure which already contributed to the deaths of 126 people, coupled with frigid temperatures, heightens risks for those awaiting rescue and relocation. While China’s deployment of over 11,000 personnel reflects a robust response, the combination of aftershocks and access difficulties could prolong recovery efforts. The quake’s impacts also extend regionally, with tremors felt in neighboring India and Nepal, emphasizing the seismic vulnerability of the Himalayan belt.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], South China Morning Post [paywall], CNN
Africa
China's foreign minister concludes Africa visit in Nigeria, commits to providing military assistance
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded his Africa tour in Nigeria, pledging continued support and military aid after visiting Namibia, Congo, and Chad, and holding discussions with Nigerian leaders Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Yusuf Tuggar.
Our Take: China’s commitments during this recent tour highlight its deepening engagement with Africa, especially in security and infrastructure development. By pledging military aid and training, Beijing is seeking to strengthen ties specifically with nations like Nigeria, which play a critical leadership role in regional stability and the Global South. This visit also accentuates the growing strategic competition in Africa, as Nigeria balances relationships with China, the US, and other global powers to address domestic challenges and economic aspirations. The focus on military support reflects China’s aim to bolster its power projection amid complex geopolitical dynamics.
Read More: DW, CGTN, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Trade and Compliance
US imposes sanctions on Hungarian official Antal Rogán for alleged corruption
The US Treasury sanctioned Antal Rogán, a key figure in Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government, highlighting deteriorating US-Hungarian relations since Russia's invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago.
Our Take: Washington’s sanctions against Rogán reflect broader tensions between the US and Hungary, stemming from Budapest’s close ties with Moscow and concerns over corruption with the Orbán administration. This move under the Global Magnitsky Act signals continued US focus on accountability for alleged corruption and governance issues, even among NATO allies. Domestically, the sanctions may exacerbate divisions within Hungary’s political elite, as frustration’s over Rogán’s alleged role in fostering a kleptocratic system persist. The timing, at the close of the Biden administration, indicates shifting dynamics in US foreign policy and could test relations under the incoming Trump presidency.
Climate Change
Raging fires in Los Angeles brings home costs of climate change
The Los Angeles wildfires are set to be the costliest in US history, with analysts’ initial assessments coming in to economic losses as high as $50 billion, and the fires have yet to be contained and tens of thousands of residents remain under evacuation orders.
Our Take: With entire communities at risk in the densely populated counties battling the fires, risks to life and property are staggering. While wildfires plague Southern California annually, climate change impacts of hydroclimate volatility – sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions – are increasing incidences of destructive floods, landslides and wildfires across the globe, according to a new study published in Nature. Los Angeles has experienced the whiplash of the wet winter last year, followed by a near record-breaking dry period since this past May. California was facing an insurance crisis before the current disaster, with many residents unable to afford rising premiums, and in some locations, private insurance no longer available. Insurance companies also face daunting risks from new exposures. California is re-writing home insurance regulations to address the crisis and seeks to create a public catastrophe model to keep the insurance companies in the market and premiums more stable.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], Nature, California Department of Insurance
