What We’re Watching Today: November 11, 2024

Overview

What We’re Watching Today is 1,217 words and an 8-minute read.

Global

US, UK and Sweden cut interest rates amid global trend of easing

The US, Britain and Sweden all cut interest rates this week, strengthening a global trend of monetary easing, amid new uncertainty on future US trade policies.

Our Take: With inflation tamed in major economies, with a few exceptions, central banks continue to cut interest rates, seeking to encourage steady economic growth and reduce unemployment. A major uncertainty, however, is the trade policy of President-elect Trump, specifically his campaign promises to impose broad tariffs, which economists warn could reignite inflation. The US soft landing has been far smoother than other major economies. The World Bank has forecast that global recovery is expected to continue at a steady but slow rate, with some differences by region, but with the US as a leader in economic growth.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], World Bank, Forbes [paywall]

Europe

EU Leaders Weigh Financial and Military Commitment to Ukraine

EU leaders met in Belgrade last week and discussed their capacity to continue military support to Ukraine independent of the US.

Our Take: European leaders are bracing for sharp policy changes in the incoming Trump administration, including a potential end of military and financial support to Kyiv. While EU leaders are creating contingency plans, a change in US policy is likely to be gradual, as there remains strong support for Ukraine among influential Republicans in Congress. President Trump will use the lame duck period to shape future negotiations, providing more clarity on the contours of a “deal” he plans to strike. Trump has been consistent in his messaging that he expects the EU to take primary responsibility for European security.

Read More: EU Today, Reuters [paywall], German Marshall Fund

Middle East

“Maximum pressure” to return

President Trump plans to resume a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, people with knowledge of the plans told The Wall Street Journal. The plan will include a drastic increase in sanctions and throttling of oil sales.

Our Take: While the Biden administration has maintained its own sanctions regime targeting Tehran, President Trump’s plan will likely constitute a dramatic increase in pressure in a bid to further diminish Iran’s power to project regional power via the funding of proxies. While sanctions will sting, Trump’s ability to reach Iran with increased sanctions will likely be decreased from 2020, as Iran has spent the last four years further disconnecting from the Western financial market in favor of Russia and China, where it now garners most of its oil revenues, its financial lifeblood.

Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall]

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia's Mount Lewotobi Laki Laki erupts again, causing thousands to evacuate

Mount Lewotobi Laki Laki in Indonesia erupted again multiple times on Friday, spewing ash 10 km high, damaging over 2,000 homes, and forcing thousands to evacuate.

Our Take: Mount Lewotobi Laki Laki’s recent eruptions mark significant volcanic activity on Flores Island, straining local infrastructure and requiring government-led evacuations for over 10,000 residents. The series of eruptions has damaged thousands of homes, displaced families, and necessitated rapid response measures, including expanded exclusion zones. Continued volcanic activity could further disrupt essential services, with ash clouds closing airports and obstructing transport routes, leading authorities to consider permanent relocations for residents in high-risk areas.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], Associated Press, Al Jazeera

Africa

US expresses grave concern over ceasefire violations in DR Congo

The US urged M23 rebels to cease hostilities and withdraw from North Kivu, calling on Rwanda to remove all military personnel and equipment from Congo.

Our Take: Ongoing M23 ceasefire violations in eastern DR Congo exemplify rising regional tensions, especially as the US calls for a withdrawal of Rwandan troops and military equipment. Demonstrating the fragility of peace initiatives like the Luanda Process and pointing to the challenges of implementing security measures amid sustained militia activity, the issue resembles concurrent conflicts elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, notably the civil war in Sudan. If unaddressed, this escalation could deepen the humanitarian crisis in eastern Congo, threatening stability and complicating international efforts to broker long-term peace.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], US Department of State, Council on Foreign Relations

Trade & Compliance

UK significantly expands sanctions against Russia

The UK announced new sanctions targeting three Kremlin-linked mercenary groups, 11 Russian affiliates, and entities in China, Turkey, and Central Asia supplying drone components and microelectronics.

Our Take: The UK’s expanded sanctions package disrupts Russia’s military supply chains in Asia and marks the first G7 sanctions against Russian-backed mercenaries in Africa. Targeting Kremlin-linked private groups like Africa Corps and suppliers in China and Central Asia, these measures may limit Moscow's access to critical technology and weaponry for its military operations. Yet, while the UK’s move underscores a strategic effort to curb Russia’s global influence and support Ukraine, adding pressure on allied nations to consider parallel actions, domestic and international critics question its effectiveness.

Disruptive Technology

Pro-Russian hackers intensify cyberattacks on South Korea amid North's troop deployment to Russia

Following North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine, pro-Russian hacking groups have ramped up cyberattacks on South Korea, causing temporary outages on government and private websites.

Our Take: The increase in pro-Russian cyberattacks against South Korea following North Korea’s troop deployment points to a shifting cyber threat landscape in Northeast Asia. These attacks suggest a coordinated attempt to destabilize South Korean infrastructure, and may signal an evolving alignment between Russian and North Korean digital strategies. With the South Korean government mobilizing countermeasures and strengthening intelligence sharing, Seoul will seek to prioritize maintaining robust cybersecurity defenses amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Climate Change

2024 is on track to be warmest year and first year above 1.5 degrees Celsius

Copernicus Climate Change service reported that October 2024 was the second-warmest October globally, after October 2023, and October 2024 was 1.65°C above the pre-industrial level.

Our Take: Copernicus scientists have concluded, based on the ERA5 dataset, that it is virtually certain that the annual temperature for 2024 will be more than 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level. According to climate studies, the higher the global average temperatures climb, and stay there, the greater the risks of triggering known climate tipping points, such as sudden melting of glaciers, raising sea levels and slowing of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

ESG

COP29 begins with squabble over EU carbon tariffs

Annual climate talks begin today at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Our Take: Baku’s COP is set to be a more muted COP compared to the global extravaganza in Dubai last year. Among the highest-profile issues at the summit this year is the confrontation between China and EU over trade-based restrictions: Beijing is attempting to EU’s policy of imposing fees on imports of high-carbon goods like steel and cement to the agenda, which must be agreed upon by consensus. China and other industrial economies have called the measures protectionist, while COP members say the measure is better addressed at the WTO. Other high-profile issues include drumming up climate financing via new pledges and contributions to the Loss and Damage Fund (Baku is being called the finance COP), and agreements formalizing carbon markets.

Read More: Reuters [paywall], Think Landscape, New York Times [paywall]