Overview
What We’re Watching Today is 1,383 words and a 9-minute read.
Global
Russia fires what-may-have-been an ICBM at Ukraine
Ukraine reported that Russia fired what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile at Dnipro, suspected to be the first use in combat of a weapon designed to deliver long-distance nuclear strikes.
Our Take: Classification of the RS-26 missile is disputed because its range (6,000 kilometers) is shorter than most ICBMs. The US is calling it an intermediate-range missile. It is notable that the US closed the US Embassy in Kyiv on Wednesday, warning of a potentially “significant” air strike. This suggests that the US had early warning of the launch. The sequence of events, following Russia’s warning of a change in its nuclear doctrine, suggests that Moscow engaged in controlled escalation, deploying a new class of missiles without nuclear warheads, with likely advance notification to the US, in a further effort to maintain escalation dominance vis-à-vis NATO and the US.
Read More: Financial Times [paywall], Reuters [paywall], Center for Strategic and International Studies
Europe
Centrist agreement emerges to back final confirmation of new team of 26 European Commissioners
EU President Ursula von der Leyen has gained the backing for her new team to run the EU executive body for the next five years, with the formation of centrist coalition.
Our Take: The centrist coalition is non-binding and inherently unstable, risking increased political unpredictability. The center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew Europe (liberals) came together after intense jockeying to back the pending nominations. The non-binding agreement, however, has left the door open to the EPP joining with far-right parties on any issue of it choosing to exert pressure on the coalition. EPP has already sided with the far right on deforestation regulation, diluting anti-deforestation rules previously passed as part of European Green Deal legislation, designed to prohibit the sale of products within the EU from newly deforested land.
Middle East
ICC issues landmark arrest warrant for Netanyahu
The International Criminal Court issued unprecedented arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, alleging that the two had committed war crimes like starvation as a weapon in their administration of the conflict in Gaza. The ICC also issued a warrant for top Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif.
Our Take: Practically, the warrants put Netanyahu and Gallant at risk of arrest if they travel to countries under ICC jurisdiction, which includes much of Europe (but not the US). States party to the Rome Statute are required to carry out arrest warrants, even if the target enters the country accidentally (like for an unscheduled plane landing), but they do not always comply. Symbolically, the arrest notices underscore Prime Minister Netanyahu’s, and Israel’s, narrowed diplomatic world in the aftermath of the Gaza conflict: while Jerusalem still has staunch allies in the US and Europe, it has increasingly strained ties in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere. Israel has faced rising criticism for the humanitarian impacts of its operations in Gaza, especially from countries in the non-Western world, who have lauded the warrants as proof that international institutions are not simply tools of the West.
Read More: Wall Street Journal [paywall], New York Times [paywall]
Americas
Brazilian president to be charged with directing insurrection attempt
Brazilian police are expected to recommend criminal charges against former President Bolsonaro following an investigation into a 2022 coup attempt.
Our Take: The charges will deal with responsibility for a January 2023 insurrection attempt in which Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in Brasília, as part of nationwide riots attempting to overturn Bolsonaro’s election loss to left-wing rival Lula. The news adds to the growing pile of legal complaints against Bolsonaro, including charges for the illegal sale of gifts from Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and the falsification of vaccine records, plus a new police report alleging that Bolsonaro had “full knowledge” of a plot to poison then president-elect Lula in 2022 before he took office. Continued investigations of Bolsonaro have come with rising political division in the country, as Bolsonaro has repeatedly expressed his intention to run again in 2026, despite not currently being eligible. If he succeeds in running, Brazil could see its most divisive election in decades.
Read More: BNN Bloomberg, Reuters [paywall]
Asia-Pacific
Myanmar led the world in landmine casualties last year, report finds
The International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL)'s latest Landmine Monitor report revealed that Myanmar surpassed Syria as the country with the most landmine and explosive-related casualties in 2023.
Our Take: Myanmar’s ascent to the top of the global landmine casualty rankings demonstrates the devastating human toll that has arisen from its ongoing civil war. The widespread use of antipersonnel mines by both the military junta and resistance forces following the 2021 coup has contributed to the current reality, where civilians, including children, constitute a significant proportion of casualties. The report also mentions the broader challenges in addressing mine contamination amidst complex conflict dynamics, spelling continued risks for the security and economic stability of the Asia-Pacific region as Myanmar continues to experience unrest.
Read More: The Guardian, The Diplomat [paywall], ReliefWeb
Africa
Kenya cancels airport agreement with Adani Group following US charges
Kenyan President William Ruto halted plans to grant Adani Group contracts for power line construction and airport management, citing credible corruption evidence and new information from investigative agencies and partner nations.
Our Take: Kenya’s move highlights the growing international implications of corporate governance scandals. Domestically, the decision aligns with Ruto’s commitment to addressing public concerns over opaque procurement practices, a critical issue amidst mounting economic pressures and public unrest, including recent protests against the Adani Group-sponsored airport. Reflecting heightened scrutiny on foreign investments tied to entities facing foreign legal challenges as well, this decision could set a precedent for greater transparency in public-private partnerships in the region.
Read More: Bloomberg [paywall], Reuters [paywall], TheEastAfrican
Trade and Compliance
US Treasury imposes new sanctions on Russia's Gazprombank
The United States Treasury Department imposed new sanctions on Russia's Gazprombank, expelling it from the US banking system, banning trade with Americans, and freezing its US assets, as President Joe Biden intensifies measures against Moscow before he leaves office in January.
Our Take: The US had previously avoided full sanction measures against Gazprombank due to concerns over disrupting the global energy market. As a result, Washington’s sanctioning of Gazprombank is a major escalation in efforts to hinder Russia’s ability to sustain its military campaign in Ukraine. The broader action against 50 additional banks and Russian securities registrars reflects the continuance of a strategy aimed at complicated Russia’s avenues for sanctions evasion, though the collateral effects on European energy payments and international financial systems will warrant close observation.
Read More: Reuters [paywall], The Moscow Times, US Department of the Treasury
Energy Transition
Honda closer to making solid-state batteries
Honda unveiled a 300,000 square foot demonstration factory in Japan for manufacture of solid-state batteries.
Our Take: Solid-state batteries are a promising technology for EVs if the complexities of mass production can be mastered. The batteries promise longer driving range before recharging, faster recharging, cheaper and safer construction compared to lithium-ion batteries. Honda’s demonstration production line is a front mover, focused on testing the design and production of the final cells, but the technology is not likely to be available to EV consumers for a few more years.
Read More: Car and Driver, Honda Global
ESG
EU formalizes new rule increasing supervision of ESG rating agencies
The Council of the European Union endorsed a new regulation increasing the supervision of ESG ratings providers, significantly increasing supervision of ESG ratings including authorization by ESMA and minimum criteria for providers outside of Europe.
Our Take: The EU has often been on the front line of ESG regulations, and in recent years has especially been the tip of the spear on anti-greenwashing regulations. This regulation builds upon April’s ESGR law, which first suggested the ESMA supervision, set out standard principles for ESG ratings, and required the publication of methodologies. This regulatory notice goes further in requiring non-EU ratings providers to comply with many of the same standards if they are providing ratings to companies operating in the EU, once again flexing the strength of the common market to act as the global pace-setter for ESG laws and regulations.
Read More: ESG News, Fintech Global
