Overview
When Will We Reopen? In stalemate situations, Congress tends to act when confronted with deadlines or "pain points" — moments when inaction produces tangible consequences that lawmakers cannot ignore. With the shutdown now 10 days old, the first major pain point is coming on October 15, when federal employees — including military personnel, air traffic controllers, severe weather forecasters and many others on which the country relies daily — will miss their paycheck. Will this be enough to reopen the government? Perhaps not. However, each pain point places greater pressure on Congress to reopen the government. There are more critical junctures coming in the next few weeks, including the November 1 beginning of open enrollment for health insurance.
Despite the stalled negotiations, House and Senate leadership have not abandoned plans to return to "regular order" in appropriations — the process of moving spending bills through committees, onto the floor, and into conference. Leaders in both chambers, along with the Appropriations Committee leaders, are still discussing and reportedly working on crafting bills and conference reports. That is a positive signal for when the government reopens.
Meanwhile, Digging In: Congressional leadership has made little progress toward a deal so far. Republicans maintain that a continuing resolution (CR) must pass before they will negotiate on Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. Democrats, buoyed by favorable public opinion and a growing number of Republicans signaling support for negotiating the subsidies, lack incentive to back a clean CR without a broader ACA agreement.
In the Senate, informal talks are underway outside official leadership channels. Senate Appropriations Chairman Susan Collins (R-ME) has floated a proposal to address ACA credits after a CR is enacted, but it was rebuffed by Democrats this week as they continue to insist any ACA agreement must be written directly into the CR itself. The White House has informally enlisted Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) to serve as an intermediary with Democrats, and a bipartisan group of senators met with Sen. Mullin over dinner to discuss where people are and if there are any possible scenarios for breaking the stalemate.
With the House not expected to reconvene until a deal is reached, pressure is mounting on the Senate to find a path forward. The stakes are high: ACA premium tax credits expire Dec. 31, and experts warn that premiums could more than double without renewal.
Payday Problems: Adding fuel to the intensifying fire is the upcoming October 15 payday for federal employees, including members of the military. With the Department of War still unfunded, service members risk missing their first paycheck since the shutdown began. Over 140 members including Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA), Chair of the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, have cosponsored a bill introduced by Rep. Jennifer Kiggans (R-VA) to guarantee timely pay for military personnel. Republican leaders argue that passing a continuing resolution would accomplish the same goal, making separate legislation unnecessary.
Another payroll flashpoint emerged from a draft memo by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which suggests the federal government may not be legally obligated to provide back pay to furloughed federal employees. However, there is broad bipartisan agreement on the Hill that furloughed employees should and will be paid. Senate Appropriations Chairman Susan Collins (R-ME) stated that while she believes the law already guarantees payment, she is open to adding a clarifying provision in the CR to remove any doubt.
Minibus Assurances: Amid the standoff, there are still signs of progress on regular-order appropriations. Within the last week, Senate Appropriations Vice Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) spoke with Speaker Mike Johnson, who assured her he is "ready to go" on advancing minibuses once the government reopens. Congressional leaders in both chambers continue to signal support for moving appropriations bills to the floor through regular order rather than resorting to a year-long CR — a scenario many appropriators fear could result from the shutdown.
As we have reported, the first minibus including, Legislative Branch, MilCon–VA, and Agriculture–FDA bills is practically complete, waiting on the Senate to name conferees and for the government to reopen to proceed. Considering this and wanting to keep moving forward, Chairman Collins has been drafting another package which would include Labor-HHS and Defense, containing most of the government’s discretionary spending. She earlier considered working with the House on a minibus including Energy and Water, Interior, and THUD, though complications with the topline for Energy and Water may sideline that idea for now.
Glimmer of Good News? Even as the shutdown continues and this year's appropriations process got off to a slow start, House and Senate leaders have been increasingly aligned in their approach to returning to regular order in appropriations. Leadership in both chambers has consistently supported appropriators in advancing bills through committee and onto the floor. In that context, the shutdown is an unwelcome detour. Even so, discussions on a bipartisan minibus are ongoing, and a second package may be in the works for when the government reopens. If lawmakers can end the shutdown with appropriations bills ready to move, the groundwork being laid now could still set the stage for a smoother, more orderly process later in the year.
