Overview
November Thaw? The shutdown will reach its one‑month mark this weekend, evolving from last week's "slow grind" into a slightly more restless phase. The political battlefield remains frozen, with both parties deeply entrenched, neither convinced they're losing the public relations battle nor willing to make the first move. Yet for the first time, cracks are beginning to form along the edges.
One factor driving this potential thaw is the sharper focus from both the public and the press on tangible pain points, with the looming lapse in SNAP benefits on November 1st breaking through nationally and going viral on social media. For many Americans, this is the first shutdown consequence to hit directly at the kitchen table, and lawmakers appear to be feeling the reverberations.
Notably, more rank‑and‑file members are engaging in informal, cross‑party conversations outside official channels. The most notable activity is within the Senate Appropriations Committee, where several members are openly discussing potential offramps. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said this week that she believes it is "possible" to end the shutdown next week if a coherent package can be assembled from the pieces already debated.
However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune's (R‑SD) stance has not shifted: the government must reopen before any substantive negotiations or new legislative commitments take place. His "open first, talk later" approach has held firm for four weeks. Recent polling showing Republicans gaining ground, particularly among independents, may be reinforcing his resolve. Even so, tempers are beginning to flare, with rarely seen frustration from Thune on the Senate floor this week. Some believe Tuesday's election results could spur movement, especially if either party senses its momentum slipping.
Healthcare and SNAP are the primary leverage points in the standoff. Democrats have signaled openness to a targeted measure that would keep SNAP benefits flowing, even as they continue to press for broader reopening terms. Some Republicans have informally floated ACA‑related ideas, though we remain skeptical that they will ultimately give way on ACA subsidies. At the same time, airports are becoming a clear trouble spot, with air traffic control staffing shortages raising concerns about possible holiday travel delays — a shutdown impact that both parties would feel and that everyday travelers are starting to notice. There are bipartisan conversations taking place about paying federal workers; however, this "rifle-shot" is unlikely to see action. On a positive note, the administration once again identified funding to ensure military personnel are paid.
Adding a new layer of complexity, last night President Donald Trump urged that congressional Republicans invoke the "nuclear option" to eliminate the filibuster and end the shutdown, enabling the continuing resolution (CR) to pass with a simple majority. We will explore the complicated dynamics of this in next week's newsletter.
Deadlines and CR Debates. Senate Appropriations Chairman Susan Collins (R-ME) continues to express interest in tying a CR to a minibus to demonstrate momentum on FY26 bills. She favors a December deadline, warning that consensus will be increasingly difficult to achieve if the timeline is pushed into 2026. Thune has been opposed to any CR ending before the new year, which creates challenges for Chairman Collins' preferred approach.
A three‑bill minibus containing Agriculture, MilCon‑VA, and Legislative Branch is essentially ready to be passed by both chambers and signed into law. The bill, having been informally conferenced, has only two unresolved issues remaining: hemp provisions in the Agriculture bill and member security provisions in the Legislative Branch bill. This underscores how close Congress is to returning to regular order if political barriers can be overcome.
The Bottom Line. Next week feels like the start of a turning point. The stalemate continues but growing concern over SNAP impacts, missed paychecks, and emerging travel disruptions are breaking through to voters, creating pressure lawmakers cannot ignore indefinitely. Still, both parties remain convinced their political base supports their intransigent position. It's difficult to advance a compromise.
If the post‑election environment alters the political calculus, the quiet conversations happening now could quickly become serious negotiations. Until then, Washington remains closed for business, with the thaw visible only at the margins.
