Overview
Today's Deep Dive is 1,252 words and an 8-minute read.
More than a year has passed since Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel subsequently commenced its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. During this year, Israel has reached important milestones in the fight against Hamas, destroying much of its military apparatus and infrastructure and weakening its hold over many areas in the Gaza Strip – but the group is not entirely defeated. However, a lack of a “day after” plan from the Netanyahu government, and on-the-ground fighting that reflects an Israeli desire for a “total victory” over Hamas, means that Israel may not be interested in translating its significant military achievements into pursuing a negotiated end to the conflict in the near future. The ball is largely in Israel’s court; as long as Israel does not formulate a comprehensive plan of action, the risks of protracted conflict remain.
When the war began, decapitating Hamas’ leadership was a stated Israeli objective, and indeed many senior and mid-level Hamas commanders were eliminated, among them Mohammed Deif, Hamas’ military chief. The recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza by the IDF – the man who was number one on Israel’s most wanted list – was hailed as a remarkable achievement, which may turn out to be a pivotal moment in this war. Sinwar’s death – and Hamas’ significantly weakened position as a result – certainly presents an opportunity for the Israeli leadership to resolve the onslaught. However, the main question is whether Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu and his government are ready to do what it takes to set clear goals regarding the continued Gaza offensive, move forward toward a “hostages for ceasefire” deal and present a concrete and credible plan for the “day after” the war in Gaza.
So far, Netanyahu appears determined to continue the war indefinitely until achieving what he calls “total victory” – a plan that is deliberately vague on what this victory will look like. This approach has proven to serve him well politically, as he has managed to keep his parliamentary coalition intact and has probably secured his premiership until the next elections, currently scheduled for October 2026. For now, he does not seem to be in any hurry to advance a hostage release deal, despite external and domestic pressure, and seems not to mind – if not enjoy – being at odds with the Biden administration on “day after” scenarios.
The Path to a “Hostages for Ceasefire” Deal
Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7 surprise attack against Israel, was believed by many to be the main obstacle to a “hostage release for ceasefire” deal, and there may now be an opportunity to reach such a deal. At present, 101 Israeli hostages, dozens of them believed to be alive, are still being held by Hamas in Gaza.
In recent days, through the mediation of Egypt and Qatar and with US backing, negotiations between Israel and Hamas resumed, yet so far, the gaps between the parties remain wide. Hamas continues to insist on an end of war in return for any release of hostages, while Israel remains adamant that any deal will not result in ending the war completely. Israel’s insistence not to end the war, even temporarily, can be seen in its decisions to turn down a proposal by Egyptian President al-Sisi for a first phase smaller scale deal involving the release of four hostages in return for a two-day ceasefire.
The resumption of talks is a positive development, but unfortunately at this stage the two sides are not showing any signs of flexibility. Some analysts believe that progress may be achieved after the US elections on November 5, as the Biden administration may feel less constrained by political considerations and therefore may be able to exert more pressure on PM Netanyahu, who is also viewed by many as stalling any movement toward a deal. Netanyahu himself stated recently that the demands that will be made by Sinwar’s successor will no doubt be tougher than those made by Sinwar, but added that there are “cracks in Hamas’ position” which Israel plans to exploit. In the meantime, in a move believed to be a show of distrust in Netanyahu’s handling of the hostage issue, a senior Israeli official – Brigadier General Oren Setter – has announced he is quitting the negotiating team.
Fighting Continues in Gaza
With Hamas remaining militarily leaderless, and having lost many of its commanders and fighters, there is an opportunity for the IDF to shift its tactics and try to leverage the death of Sinwar to decimate Hamas. IDF troops have continued to conduct targeted raids in the central and southern areas of the Gaza Strip, focusing on the dismantling of Hamas infrastructure, the elimination of armed terrorists, and moving civilians out of harm’s way (although the US has repeatedly called for Israel to do more to limit civilian casualties).
Israel’s military achievements, however, are not being translated into political-diplomatic gains, and at this point there is no sign that Israel is changing course on tactics in Gaza. The IDF gets its “marching orders” from the government of Israel which still has not come up with a strategy for the “day after” the war. As such, a power vacuum in Gaza risks Hamas reconstituting itself on the ground, with its political leadership (in exile in Qatar) influencing if not directing its activities.
Israel’s “Day After”
Netanyahu believes the recent killing of Sinwar (and elimination of Lebanese Hizballah’s leader Nasrallah) vindicates his insistence on pursuing “total victory.” The Biden administration, on the other hand, questions Netanyahu’s repeated rejection of proposals advanced to end the conflict and ultimately turn over governance and security of Gaza to Palestinians linked with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank.
In his address at the opening of the Knesset’s fall session on October 28, Netanyahu stated that his goal in Gaza is to destroy Hamas’ military infrastructure and that on the “day after,” Hamas will no longer govern Gaza. While adding that he is actively working on a plan that will shape the Gaza front, including the day after, it is clear he does not trust that any future multilateral or Palestinian force in Gaza would permanently prevent Hamas from returning to power in Gaza.
Netanyahu has not been clear on how he views Israel’s own role in the Gaza Strip after fighting concludes. While he has reiterated Israel has no intention of reoccupying Gaza, members of far-right parties in his coalition and Netanyahu’s own Likud party have been advocating for Israeli military presence in the northern Gaza Strip when the war is over. Some members have even called for an Israeli return to Gaza, including the reestablishment of Jewish settlements there, a scenario that at this point does not seem feasible, and would face significant international pushback.
Finding a way to move forward towards a resolution of the Gaza crisis requires serious Israeli decisions. It is clear that as long as Israel does not formulate a comprehensive plan of action, addressing military objectives alongside political-diplomatic goals, there will be no movement forward. Israel will need to coordinate its policy with the US and Arab countries, but it seems Netanyahu is waiting to see who will win the US elections. It is no secret Netanyahu believes he will have an easier time convincing Donald Trump to support his plan, and expects Kamala Harris to apply greater pressure on him to move towards a resolution of the conflict. Despite recent battlefield gains, the conflict appears to be stalled once again.
