Overview
With just one week until the first of two government funding deadlines, Congress keeps Washington guessing. Will they pass the bills on time? Pass a CR or combination of CRs? Or shut down part (or all) of the government? As Jeopardy fans... “Alex, we take ‘Washington Dysfunction’ for $500, please.”
FY24 Waiting Game: If you listen to the Washington pundits, you might think there is no hope. We’ve heard it all this week, which is typical when Congress is out of town and reporters’ leaks dry up. In spite of the drama, we are still optimistic. Why? First, we know many subcommittees are getting their bills wrapped up and sent to leadership for final decisions on a narrowed-down list of riders. Second, a handful of bills will be ready to go to the floor next week, and the text should be released later this weekend. Third, our sources tell us that Defense and Labor-HHS will be packaged together (possibly with another bill or two) the week after.
Where we do begin to see storm clouds is with Homeland Security and maybe another bill or two. Homeland Security has been an issue all year because of the border funding disagreements and policy riders, not to mention the impeachment of Secretary Mayorkas. While we don’t know this for sure, we think this is the bill on which Speaker Johnson may take an uncompromising position.
The House Freedom Caucus fired a warning shot to Speaker Johnson this week, sending a letter cautioning that failure to include a list of conservative policy riders in the final appropriations bills would lead to a majority of Republicans voting no on the floor. As a general rule of thumb, Speakers try to abide by the “Hastert Rule” – an informal rule that says speakers will not schedule floor votes without having majority support within their party. It is notable that the letter does not include any threats to Speaker Johnson’s leadership, nor any promises to logjam other legislative processes.
The bottom line: These bills need to be bipartisan in order to pass the Senate and be signed by the President, and will need to pass with bipartisan votes.
Supplemental Awaits: Efforts to pass a supplemental aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan have stalled for now, despite a group of bipartisan House lawmakers unveiling their aid package last Friday. Reception of the package in the House has been somewhat muted, and with crunch deadlines for appropriations approaching, it is difficult to see where leadership would carve out floor time for consideration of a supplemental. We have not given up on the supplemental package and still think it could get finalized—just not this week.
Client Alert: While FY24 is getting worked out, member deadlines for FY25 requests are already fast approaching. If you are considering funding or policy changes for FY25 and haven’t spoken to us, do so now!