Overview
At the time of publication, shutdown negotiations remained fluid — developments were unfolding rapidly, which is often a good sign.
Signs of Life. The shutdown has now reached its 38th day, surpassing the record set during President Trump's first term. With a Senate recess looming next week, pressure is mounting: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments have yet to be sent, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) concerns are growing, and political patience is wearing thin.
Today brought the first real signs of movement since the shutdown began. All four Appropriations Committee leaders, the “four corners,” met for the first time today, and Democrats are circulating their first formal offer of the shutdown. The proposal includes a one‑year ACA extension, a non‑starter for Republicans, but marks a shift from the more verbal and fluid positions Democrats have taken until now. While this offer is unlikely to be the final deal, it represents a tangible step forward and could help focus negotiations heading into the weekend.
Senate floor dynamics remain fluid. Majority Leader John Thune (R‑SD) held a vote today on a motion to proceed to Senator Ron Johnson’s (R‑WI) bill, which would have provided pay to certain federal employees and active-duty troops, though the procedural motion was voted down due to Democratic objections in favor of their own party's bill introduced by Sen. Van Hollen (D-MD). The measure signals the start of what could be a series of votes over the weekend, likely on a CR through mid‑January, paired with a minibus containing the Agriculture‑FDA, MilCon‑VA, and Legislative Branch bills, if the four corners can resolve remaining issues. This approach notably omits assurances on future ACA subsidy votes and other potential bargaining chips, such as reversing planned reductions in force (RIFs). These omissions could prove pivotal, especially after this week’s election results bolstered Democrats’ negotiating leverage.
The House remains in recess, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA) reiterating that members will receive 48 hours' notice before being called back to Washington for a vote.
Inside Filibuster Politics. As noted last week, President Trump has renewed his push for Republicans to invoke the "nuclear option," ending the filibuster to pass a CR and reopen the government. He reiterated this position during a White House breakfast with Senate Republicans, maintaining that removing the 60‑vote threshold would allow swift passage and enable a pivot to other priorities.
Despite these pleas, Thune has rejected the idea, asserting that the votes aren’t there for ending the filibuster. Although a growing chorus of senators support eliminating the filibuster, enough still oppose the move, reasoning that the long‑term consequences would be significant if their party were in the minority.
Positions on whether to eliminate the filibuster have been shifting in recent years, depending on which party is in the majority. Now that Republicans are in the majority, some GOP senators are warming to the idea of "going nuclear." Senator Johnson, for instance, argued Republicans may as well beat Democrats to the punch, suggesting they will end the filibuster when they have the chance. He points to their failed 2022 attempt to scrap it for voting rights legislation as evidence that they are willing to change the rules, citing this as the reason for reversing his position and now favoring an end to the rule. Senator Josh Hawley (R‑MO) says he would consider ending it if it meant reopening the government and delivering urgently needed food assistance in Missouri. Some Republicans have floated a narrower change applying only to funding bills that keep the government open, though leadership interest remains minimal.
For now, the nuclear option is not on the table, and the filibuster remains intact. In this standoff, the presence of the filibuster is a central reason the Senate retains control of negotiations while the House waits. Still, we expect this issue will continue to arise as presidents and political parties seek to move quickly on priorities, yet they find the Senate filibuster standing in their way.
