Overview
Shutdown Snapshot: As we enter the third week of the shutdown, the landscape remains stubbornly familiar. While senators made intermittent attempts to move the appropriations process forward, persistent political mistrust, entrenched policy positions, and the notable absence of public urgency continue to make a near‑term resolution unlikely.
Last week, we outlined some key pressure points that could break a stalemate: missed federal payroll and the looming open enrollment for ACA healthcare choices. This week the most striking observation to us is what's missing: enough significant constituent response to pressure movement towards a resolution.
With the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) using unobligated FY25 funds to shield high‑visibility services and active‑duty military pay, most Americans up to now have experienced little disruption in their daily lives and therefore have not increased pressure on lawmakers. This lack of constituent involvement reduces incentives for elected leaders to move from their established positions.
Several offramps have been floated by Republican leadership, most recently Majority Leader John Thune's "two‑vote" plan to first end the shutdown and then hold a separate vote on extending expiring ACA premium subsidies. Democrats have dismissed these ideas as symbolic, offering no guaranteed relief for constituents and expressing continued distrust in OMB Director Russ Vought's role in enforcing any deal. Republicans, meanwhile, see little reason to extend subsidies they have long opposed, argue that Democrats created the expiration date, and remain concerned about the cost of a permanent extension.
Further complicating matters, each party believes it is winning the public relations battle. Media coverage varies sharply by outlet, reinforcing partisan narratives and creating parallel political universes, while the shutdown story often gets lost amidst world events and the general uptick this year in daily breaking news. Absent a shift in the current environment, leaders have little incentive to move toward compromise.
Regular Order Efforts Amid Shutdown. Despite the political impasse, congressional leadership remains committed to pursuing regular order for appropriations bills and is not yet entertaining the idea of another year-long CR. Yesterday's procedural vote to consider the Senate Defense Appropriations bill, reported 26-3 by the Senate Appropriations Committee in July, would have demonstrated positive momentum on regular order. Though the vote ultimately failed amid broader Democratic opposition over the shutdown impasse, leadership's attempts at moving appropriations bills can be viewed as another positive signal for regular order once the government does reopen.
In parallel, discussions are underway to appoint Senate conferees to reconcile the three‑bill "minibus" covering Ag‑FDA, Leg Branch, and MilCon–VA. Senate Republicans want to fast-track this process using unanimous consent, but Democrats are blocking this effort given the lack of a more comprehensive agreement, nixing the possibility of an expedited path for now.
While this week's difficulties stem from the broader fight over reopening the government, there is good reason to expect once operations resume, congressional leaders and appropriators will push to pass as many spending bills as possible through regular order. There isn't much appetite for another year-long CR.
Executive Decisions. The Trump administration has temporarily removed one shutdown pressure point by ensuring active‑duty troops are paid through redirecting Pentagon research and development funds to military pay checks. However, the ability to meet the next paycheck on October 31 remains in question, and Speaker Johnson has warned that troops will miss this paycheck if the government remains unfunded. While the Senate is expected to vote on legislation next week to provide a more permanent pay solution for military members and certain federal employees, the chances for passage are slim.
Additionally, the administration announced that it is exploring another recissions package, but Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) has described these proposals as "not helpful" and that it is seen as reinforcing the idea the administration cannot be trusted to adhere to a final spending deal. Meanwhile, OMB Director Vought said there are plans for additional reductions in force (RIF) affecting at least 10,000 more federal employees. The current RIFs (about 4,000 so far) have been temporarily blocked in court after a federal judge ruled that the administration failed to follow required legal procedures and exceeded its authority.
Murky Outlook: For now, both parties appear content to hold their ground. A shift is most likely only if outside forces – such as changes in public opinion, market volatility, or other major events – alter the political calculus. Should those pressures mount, leaders may be forced to reassess and move toward compromise. Until then, the shutdown could easily stretch on for several more weeks.
