What We're Watching Today, August 19, 2024

Overview

What We’re Watching Today is 1,694 words and an 11-minute read.

Global: Philippine and Chinese vessels collide; tensions flare in the South China Sea

Reports of at least three collisions between coast guard ships expose the fragileness of the agreement between the Philippines and China meant to diffuse tensions between the two countries over navigation around the Sabina Shoal, in the disputed Spratly Islands.

Our Take: The media is reporting conflicting versions for responsibility of the incidents, which resulted in serious damage to two Philippine vessels after being rammed by Chinese coast guard ships. While an international arbitration tribunal in 2016 ruled against Chinese claims to exclusive control over the South China Seas, Beijing continues to press its claims. The US and allies are determined to maintain freedom of navigation in these waters, which include the Taiwan Strait. This year, the US has strengthened its military relationship with the Philippines, which already includes a mutual defense commitment, providing Manila with $500 million in foreign military financing to upgrade naval maritime surveillance and cyber systems. The US also plans to return to Subic Bay, a former US naval base, with a new agreement for shipyard access for repair and maintenance services. The US is challenging China’s assertive territorial claims and land reclamation efforts by conducting freedom of navigation operations and increasing support for regional partners, which makes the region a potential flashpoint for direct military confrontation between the two global powers.

Europe: Ukraine to turn Kursk into buffer zone, clarifying strategic goal of incursion

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukraine plans turn the occupied lands in the Kursk region into a buffer zone to prevent further Russian attacks across the border.

Our Take: Since launching the cross border operation in Kursk region on August 6, Ukraine has destroyed key Russian military logistical infrastructure, captured an important gas transit plant, taken large numbers of Russian soldiers as prisoners, and only today advised the strategic intent of the operation. The operation has put Ukraine back on the offensive, boosted morale, while providing a dilemma for western supporters. Zelensky wants permission to use Western military equipment inside Russia, the West wants to see the Ukraine achieve its objectives restoring Ukrainian sovereignty, but the West does not want to provoke a war between Russia and NATO. This is the largest incursion into Russian territory by a foreign army since World War II.

Read More: Associated Press, BBC, Foreign Policy

Middle East: “Last chance” for Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal

US Secretary of State Blinken arrived in Israel to facilitate a new round of peace talks, saying that this week’s push may be the last opportunity to secure a ceasefire and hostage release deals.

Our Take: As in previous rounds, prospects for agreement between Israel and Hamas look dim. Both parties have said that the terms have changed and are too preferential to their opponents, and are less inclined to participate following recent escalation on both sides (a Hamas suicide bombing in Tel Aviv on Sunday, continued Israel airstrikes in Gaza). Main sticking points include disagreement about a permanent end to the war (Netanyahu has pledged “total victory”), Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza-Egypt border, screening of returning displaced Palestinians, and hostage release.

Read More: Reuters, Washington Post [paywall]

Americas: Nicaragua continues civil society crackdown

Nicaraguan President Ortega outlawed 1,500 non-governmental organizations it said had violated the law, part of a long-running crackdown on civil society groups and general democratic backslide in the country.

Our Take: President Ortega’s assault on civil society following a political crisis that saw widespread anti-government protests calling for democratic reforms, including Ortega’s resignation. After quashing the demonstrations, Ortega has systematically defanged Nicaraguan civil society, including religious organizations and universities. The government’s continued assault on potential wielders of influence casts doubt on any reversal of the country’s democratic backslide.

Asia-Pacific: New Thai prime minister takes office with royal endorsement

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of controversial former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, became Thailand’s prime minister after receiving an endorsement from Thailand’s king on Sunday, two days after Parliament elected her following a court decision removing her predecessor.

Our Take: Paetongtarn has assumed the role of prime minister with no governing experience, leading a nation already in the midst of political turmoil. Her father, Thaksin, and aunt, Yingluck, had both been forced out of political office and into exile, although Thaksin returned to Thailand as the family’s Pheu Thai Party formed a new government. While Pheu Thai has returned to power as a result of a bargain with the conservative establishment to block their mutual rival, the Move Forward Party, the alliance remains fragile, with Thaksin continuing to face a criminal case for defaming the monarchy. As a result, Paetongtarn’s tenure will be plagued with uncertainties over if she can effectively maintain domestic support from both the rural poor, her father’s key vote bank, and the monarchy, which may impact her ability to achieve her stated aims of improving Thailand’s universal healthcare system and promoting its soft power on the global stage.

Read More: Associated Press, New York Times [paywall], Council on Foreign Relations

Africa: Sudan to send delegation to Cairo for discussions with US and Egyptian mediators

Sudan’s government announced on Monday that it will send a delegation to Cairo to meet with US and Egyptian officials, bringing hope that it will participate in peace talks aimed at ending Sudan’s 16-month long civil war.

Our Take: The Sudanese government’s decision to continue dialogue with US and Egyptian mediators in Cairo appears to alleviate concerns of prolonged conflict following the government’s absence from peace talks in Geneva last week. The government has reiterated its stance that its involvement would be limited to discussing the implementation of the Jeddah agreement, which would require its opponent, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, to evacuate civilian areas of the country. While the prospect of a permanent peace settlement remains unclear, progress appears to be moving forward, with the US’s Arab allies such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia playing key roles in engaging Sudan’s government. Meanwhile, famine caused by the war continues to devastate Sudan’s civilian population, spelling out greater urgency for a peace deal to be reached.

Read More: Reuters, Atlantic Council

Trade and Compliance: Russia prepares for decades of Western sanctions

A senior Russian official said on Friday that sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries will remain in place for decades, even following a potential peace agreement in Ukraine.

Our Take: Despite becoming the most sanctioned country in the world following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has outpaced Western countries in economic growth, recently regaining its status as a high-income economy according to the World Bank. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the removal of all sanctions on Russia a precondition for peace, though officials have noted some benefits, such as forcing Russia to restructure its economy and produce more value-added goods that it previously imported from Western countries. Moscow has also benefitted by increasing oil exports to China and India and strengthened cooperation with other sanctioned countries such as Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea. These moves, in combination with the recent statement, indicate that Moscow is hedging its economic future on increased trade with the Global South at the expense of Western economies.

Read More: Reuters, Forbes [paywall], Chatham House

Disruptive Technology: New Nvidia model could significantly improve severe weather forecasting

Axios reports that Nvidia is developing a new generative AI weather model that will significantly improve the accuracy of short-range weather forecasting, enabling better predictions of hazards such as tornados and flash floods.

Our Take: While artificial intelligence has contributed to weather model forecasting for years, Nvidia’s new model, known as StormCast, is the first AI model to demonstrate improved accuracy at simulating extreme weather events down to the kilometer scale, according to the company. The ability to provide rapid and detailed predictions of this caliber can help communities better prepare for severe weather, potentially saving lives and reducing economic losses as such weather hazards continue to grow in frequency. Moreover, StormCast’s integration with climate change projections offers enhanced local insights, which could improve adaption strategies in particularly vulnerable regions.

Read More: Axios, The Weather Company, CNBC, World Economic Forum

Climate Change: Southern Africa in drought of the century; 17% of population in need of humanitarian aid

Southern Africa is experiencing the worst drought conditions in the last century, with 68 million people in need of aid. Lack of rain had harmed crop and livestock production, causing food shortages and damaging the wider economies.

Our Take: The call for aid has met with marginal response, as the international donor community is being barraged with appeals from a region beset with conflict, famine, flooding and drought. The number of forcibly displaced people, returnees, and stateless people in the southern Africa region is expected to continue to rise in 2024, mostly people uprooted by the impact of climate crises. The UN estimated that new crises are causing global humanitarian requirements to grow from US$46.4 billion in January 2024 to $48.7 billion, as of May 2024. Fundraising, meanwhile, has only reach 16% of needs.

ESG: Confidence in ESG efforts down amid controversy

A new survey by law firm Morrison Foerster finds that confidence in ESG efforts in major companies is down (44% from 69% in 2023 for public companies, 34% from 73% for private ones), but that 52% of respondents still feel ESG considerations influence business strategy, with governance being the primary ESG concern.

Our Take: The results of the Morrison Foerster survey highlight the shift ongoing in the ESG space, as companies have struggled to find a place for a set of considerations that has faced significant political pushback but that remains important for practical concerns and for a significant swath of consumers, employees, and investors. Governance has emerged as the most inoffensive of ESG efforts, while environmental and social issues are enduringly divisive.

Read More: ESG News, Forbes, Bloomberg Law