Overview
Türkiye has spent the last several years fostering a more assertive foreign policy, expanding its relationships and power projection in order to establish itself as a regional power broker and key convener between Western powers and capitals in Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. The geopolitical developments of the last several years—such as the collapse of Syria’s Assad dictatorship, Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict—have variously bolstered and hampered Ankara’s attempts to play a pivotal role on the global stage. The country holds the proverbial keys in some countries (such as Somalia and Syria) and President Erdogan has historically enjoyed a close relationship with US President Trump, and thus is well-situated to moderate some conflicts; on the other hand, Ankara will struggle to gain a foothold in other arenas, such as Israel-Hamas negotiations, and could see its European stock go down amid rising domestic turmoil.
Türkiye Emerges as Key Gatekeeper in Post-Assad Syria
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 has placed Türkiye in a unique position, as its influence over the HTS-led interim government in Damascus is unparalleled. As such, Türkiye has been deeply involved in recent months in helping shape Syria’s future political and security landscape and, at the same time, ensure its interests are advanced. Those include stabilization of the war-torn country which will allow for the cultivation of closer political, security and economic ties with Syria, limiting the involvement and influence of Russia, Iran and Israel there, as well as the termination of terrorist activities, the disarmament of terrorists and the expulsion of foreign terrorists (a clear reference to the US-backed PKK-affiliated SDF, designated by Ankara as a terrorist organization). In this new regional order, Türkiye believes it has the upper hand in Syria. The new mood in Ankara is that Türkiye is in a stronger place regionally and globally.
In this context, Türkiye viewed the recent deal reached between Syria’s interim government and the Kurdish-led authority that controls northeastern Syria as containing positive and negative elements. The deal, which includes a ceasefire and the merging of the SDF into the Syrian army, is viewed by Ankara as an important step in the consolidation of power of the HTS-led interim government as well as the future dismantling of the Kurdish political and security infrastructure in northeastern Syria, but at the same time Türkiye is closely monitoring how this deal will be implemented and what impact it will have on the situation on the ground.
Türkiye Aims to Remain Key Hamas Interlocutor as Conflict Reignites
Türkiye has also attempted to position itself as a convener in ongoing Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations, to less success. While Ankara’s close ties with Hamas are positive here, its relations with Israel are at a low point. There is no trust between the two countries, and Israel prefers Egypt and Qatar as mediators. Nonetheless, Ankara—which has been one of Hamas’ most stalwart supporters in recent decades—likely sees a regional role for itself as a voice for Hamas and, in its own estimation, the Palestinian people. While this stance will likely not endear Ankara to Israel or the new Trump administration, it remains a cornerstone of Turkish regional foreign policy and may contribute to closer ties with post-Assad Syria, Qatar, and other Arab supporters of the Palestinian cause.
Türkiye Pushes for Greater Role in European Plans for Ukraine
This greater Turkish self-confidence can be seen in its recent activities in Europe. More specifically, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is viewed in Ankara as an opportunity for Türkiye to reset ties with Europe and play a central role. In recent weeks, in the aftermath of the clash between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, there have been signs of a deepening security conversation between Turkish and European decision-makers. Türkiye’s foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended the emergency summit on Ukraine convened by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on March 2, as Türkiye became part of the "coalition of the willing”, led by Starmer and French President Emanual Macron. After a summit hosted by the EU on March 6, Erdogan signaled that Turkish troops could eventually be deployed in Ukraine. Türkiye’s military chief participated last week in a meeting in Paris with more than thirty other countries' military chiefs to discuss Ukraine’s security and the possibility of an international peacekeeping force there.
While it is still early to assess whether a European-led peacekeeping force is a viable option, as much will depend on Trump’s ability to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire, Türkiye is preparing to play a central role in peacekeeping, based on its experience in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan, and being viewed as an acceptable party by both Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, Türkiye will likely be perceived as a mutually trustworthy peacekeeper, given its previous mediation of an initiative that enabled safe transshipping of grain in the Black Sea near the beginning of the war, stabilizing global food prices. Türkiye is hoping that such a role will positively impact the broader EU-Türkiye relationship, which will include a renegotiated Customs Union, more opportunities for Turkish defense industries in Europe and visa liberalization.
Regional Rapprochement with Iraq and the Gulf
Prior to the fall of Assad, Türkiye prioritized the thawing and strengthening of relations with Iraq and the Gulf States, as part of an effort to entrench itself in the Middle East and accrue value as a bridge between Europe and MENA, much to the dismay of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Amid declining Iranian influence in the region following various proxy defeats, Türkiye has moved in recent months to expand cooperation with Iraq, with an emphasis on energy and electricity. Earlier this week, Türkiye announced that it would double electricity supply to Iraq, helping to mitigate a shortfall of electricity caused by the US’ nonrenewal of a waiver allowing Baghdad to purchase electricity from Iran. Ensuring a steady and predictable flow of water from Türkiye to Iraq is also high on the bilateral agenda, which also includes increasing trade as well as cooperation between the private sectors of both countries. As for the Gulf States, Türkiye’s new status in Syria has been helpful for Ankara in solidifying its relations with Gulf states, which view their ties with Türkiye as critical in establishing a foothold in Syria and essential for future cooperation in the stabilization and reconstruction of Syria.
Continued Engagement in Africa Broadens Regional Influence
Türkiye’s position as a middle power often works to its advantage. Its policy in Africa reinforces this assertion. Having a more modest presence than the US, EU, China and Russia allows Türkiye to invest in core areas of interest. Türkiye has positioned itself as a neutral actor on the continent, delivering security and economic benefits without upsetting the bigger powers. Türkiye sees Africa as a core part of its political and economic global engagement. In this context, Türkiye has invested efforts in helping to advance negotiations to end the Ethiopia-Somalia dispute, attempting to make itself indispensable as a mediator. It is important to note that Somalia also hosts Türkiye’s largest overseas military base. Its presence in Africa provides greater economic, investment and trade opportunities, including greater access for Turkish military contractors and defense industries.
Domestic Turmoil Could Limit Influence
In recent days, Türkiye’s domestic arena has come under international scrutiny as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on his political opponents resulted in the arrest of the popular opposition leader, Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. The Istanbul Stock Exchange’s main index dropped by 7% over the news, while the Turkish Lira lost 3.5% of its value against the US dollar. European leaders like Olaf Scholz have stated that the move may further undermine EU-Türkiye relations, despite Türkiye’s geostrategic utility. While the domestic arena is simmering, with growing protests against Erdogan, the Turkish president can point to important achievements in the foreign policy domain, as Ankara’s diplomatic influence in the Middle East and in Europe is widening.
