Overview
New Majorities. New Appropriations Power. The 2026 midterm elections delivered a historic shift in congressional control, with the results surpassing pre-election expectations. Based on races called so far, Democrats have flipped over 40 House seats and at least eight Senate seats, securing majorities at this time of 255 and 55 seats, respectively. The results will reshape the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, ushering in new leadership, shifting committee ratios, and marking the departure of several senior appropriators.
House: The Gavel Changes Hands. The most immediate consequence will be a substantial shift in committee ratios. Democrats will gain a larger share of seats, giving them greater control over the agenda and more leverage to shape individual bills and direct federal resources toward their priorities. Republicans will hold fewer seats, but departures could absorb much of that reduction, limiting the number of returning GOP appropriators who must give up their committee assignments. The extent will depend on the final committee size and negotiated party ratios.
Reps. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Tom Cole (R-OK) are expected to remain the top Democrat and Republican, respectively, with DeLauro reclaiming the gavel.
Republican departures:
Mark Amodei (R-NV), Homeland Security chairman: Retiring.
David Valadao (R-CA), Legislative Branch chairman: Defeated in the general election.
Julia Letlow (R-LA): Elected to the Senate.
Ashley Hinson (R-IA): Ran unsuccessfully for the Senate.
Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ): Defeated in the general election.
Dan Newhouse (R-WA): Retiring.
Ryan Zinke (R-MT): Retiring.
Chuck Edwards (R-NC): Withdrew from his reelection campaign; leaving at the end of his term.
Democratic departures:
Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Financial Services ranking member: Retiring.
Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), Legislative Branch ranking member: Defeated in the primary.
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ): Retiring.
Senate: Turnover at the Top. Republicans are losing five of their 15 appropriators. While Vice Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) is expected to reclaim the gavel, the defeat of Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) leaves a significant leadership vacancy and uncertainty over who will become the committee's top Republican. Interior Subcommittee Chair Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), next in seniority, plans to seek the post. This week, however, Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) Subcommittee Chair Jerry Moran (R-KS) stated publicly he is exploring a bid to become the Vice Chair and is speaking with Republican colleagues. The outcome will help shape the committee's approach to funding negotiations in the next Congress.
Republican departures:
Susan Collins (R-ME), full committee chair: Defeated in the general election.
Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Defense chairman: Retiring.
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), Transportation-HUD chair: Defeated in the general election.
Jon Husted (R-OH): Defeated in the special election.
Darline Graham (R-SC): Defeated in the general election.
Democratic departures:
Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Agriculture-FDA ranking member: Retiring.
Dick Durbin (D-IL): Retiring.
Gary Peters (D-MI): Retiring.
The Road Ahead for FY27: Amid the blue wave and upcoming leadership changes, the Senate Appropriations Committee released seven of its FY27 funding bills this week:
- Agriculture-FDA (Ag-FDA)
- Commerce, Justice, and Science (CJS)
- Energy and Water
- Homeland Security
- Interior-Environment
- Legislative Branch (Leg Branch)
- Military Construction-Veterans Affairs (MilCon-VA)
Despite the release of these measures, the prospect of Congress passing all 12 appropriations bills before the current Continuing Resolution (CR) expires on December 11 looks less likely by the day. Both Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro and Vice Chair Patty Murray have acknowledged that another short-term CR will likely be necessary to avert a government shutdown in December. Ranking Member DeLauro continues to emphasize her goal of reaching a broader funding agreement by the end of the year, while Murray has called for a CR extending into January, when Democrats will control both chambers. Monday's meeting of the "four corners" – top Republican and Democratic appropriators in each chamber – produced no path forward.
Funding for the Iran war is becoming a primary obstacle to enacting a package. Key Democrats have signaled they will oppose appropriations legislation that includes additional war funding, while Republicans will want to craft a package that can clear Congress and secure the President's signature. Incoming Senate Budget Committee Chair Tim Kaine (D-VA) said he is drafting language to cut off funding for the war that he will seek to attach to the next CR.
Senate Democrats' unsettled leadership picture adds additional uncertainty to year-end negotiations. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), who has announced a challenge to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) for majority leader, has called for using the December deadline to cut off Iran war funding. We expect most funding decisions to remain unresolved until Senate Democrats elect their leader. Their leadership elections are currently scheduled for December 1.
Our Take: A short-term CR extending all or most government funding into the new Congress is the most likely outcome right now, but we aren't taking a shutdown completely off the table. Democrats have a strong incentive to carry final FY27 negotiations into next year, when they will control the appropriations agenda, and the direction of earmarks, with a significant majority. But an agreement on an extension is by no means guaranteed. Perhaps after the Senate Democratic leadership elections, there will be enough time and goodwill left to pair a clean CR with a few negotiated bills and wrap it up in a bow before the holidays.
