Overview
Today's Deep Dive is 1,020 words and a 6-minute read.
Nearly a year has passed since the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began and efforts led by the US, Egypt and Qatar to broker a “hostage release for ceasefire” deal between Israel and Hamas continue with no resolution yet in sight. At the same time, new active fronts have emerged between Israel and Iran’s proxies, including Lebanese Hizballah, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Syria and Iraq. As Israel’s patience is wearing out, it may soon reach the conclusion to initiate a full-scale military campaign against Lebanese Hizballah in the coming months. The war is likely to grind on and the risk of wide scale regional war is increasing. As for the timeline, it may take weeks if not months until Israel make its decision. Miscalculations or provocations by either side may lead to a slippery slope sooner than expected. In devising their future plans the parties are certainly considering how the US would react, and they may decide to postpone large-scale plans until after the US presidential elections.
A Multi-Front War
In recent weeks there is growing concern that Iran and Hizballah may decide to escalate the regional conflict in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hizballah senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and the alleged killing of Hamas’ head of the political bureau Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. In the immediate aftermath of the assassinations in late July, Iran and Hizballah vowed to avenge the deaths of Shukr and Haniyeh, and Israel raised the level of its military preparedness and air defense alertness to the highest level in anticipation of possible attacks. At first, there was consensus among Israeli politicians and experts that Iran and Hizballah would act, but as time went by without an attack the prevailing assessment became that Iran and Hizballah’s leaders are postponing any action, waiting for a more opportune moment (as Iran at one point announced that it would hold off on retaliation during ceasefire talks). Some analysts suggested that Iran and its proxy were also being deterred by the Biden Administration’s warnings and the US military’s dispatching of strategic assets to the region like the Abraham Lincoln nuclear-powered submarine and F-22 fighter jets squadrons. Adding to Hizballah’s sense of vulnerability in late August was the Israeli Air Force’s successful preemptive strike against Hizballah, which was believed to be planning a punitive missile and drones attack on Israel. At this point, it seems Iran and Hizballah are treading carefully trying not to cross US and Israeli red lines
Attention Shifts Northward
Analysts on the ground in Israel assess that there is a growing sense among Israeli decision makers that the time has come for Israel to shift its military focus from the war in Gaza, in which leaders judge that most of the military objectives have been achieved, to Israel’s northern front. While not launching large-scale attacks against Israel, Hizballah has created a new reality on the ground along the Lebanese-Israeli border. Hizballah has increased air attacks into Israeli territory, hitting military and civilian targets in northern Israel, and while Israel responds, often forcefully, its actions are not enough to prevent Hizballah from continuing with this modus operandi.
This situation has led to a near total evacuation of Israel’s northern region, leaving 100,000 people displaced. In recent days, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant have voiced warnings that the current situation from the Israeli standpoint is unacceptable and that Israel will have to take strong measures to regain its sovereignty and restore security in the north sooner rather than later. This week the Israeli cabinet officially added the return of the displaced Israelis as one of the war’s objectives.
For this to happen, Israel needs to ensure it is fully prepared and equipped to launch an attack on Hizballah, which will surely take weeks if not months to carry out and complete. Experts believe Israel needs more time to of prepare to implement its plans, but developments on the ground may dictate a shorter timeline. It is important to consider that if a full-scale war between Israel and Hizballah breaks out, it will not remain bilateral for long, as Iran and other members of the Axis of Resistance are highly likely to join in one way or another.
The US’ Role in Influencing Peace – or Regional War
At present, all parties involved are looking to Washington, as the US is playing a critical role in preventing a full-scale war. The Biden administration is focusing on a hostage release-ceasefire deal in Gaza because it believes it is the key to de-escalation between Israel and Hizballah and other Iranian proxies (as Hizballah vowed it would stop firing at Israel once a ceasefire is in place in Gaza). The coordinated efforts to reach a deal are not producing the desired results, however, as both Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu are not ready to make the necessary compromises.
Regarding Hizballah, US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein is shuttling between Beirut and Jerusalem in an effort to find an agreed mechanism that will allow de-escalation of tensions through the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which stipulates the withdrawal of Hizballah forces from the border area northward to the Litani River line. The chances for US diplomacy to succeed are low at best, but if Hizballah realizes Israel is serious in its stated intentions, it may agree to a compromise which involves a partial retreat from the border area.
The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election is another factor to consider, as parties to the conflict weigh the risks of escalation and potential impact, or perceptions of impact, on the outcome of the elections. There is an emerging view that an “October Surprise” from the region may not be in the interest of Iran’s as well as Israel’s leaders and their longer-term objectives. However, in the absence of a hostage release-ceasefire deal in Gaza after November 5, the risk for an Israel-Hizballah escalation in the Biden lame duck period increases, and with it the risk for a wider regional conflict between Israel and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance.
