Overview
On March 18, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released the unclassified version of the annual worldwide threat assessment, which reflects the collective insights of the US intelligence community (IC) on the most direct, serious threats to the US in the coming year. While the content varies from year to year, this year’s report is notably different from previous years. It is narrower in scope and reorders national security priorities to put nonstate transnational criminals at the top of the threat matrix.
For businesses, the threat assessment provides a window into the US government’s threat perception and how IC collection resources will be prioritized. Read in conjunction with the executive orders and other measures authorized by President Trump since taking office in January, businesses can also see how the administration is responding. The most important takeaway for business is that the Trump administration's policy responses to the identified threats (or potential threats) will not be transitory, but will be enduring features of national security priorities during the next four years.
Nonstate Transnational Criminals and Terrorists
According to the report:
Transnational criminals, terrorists, and other nonstate actors are threatening and impacting the lives of U.S. citizens, the security and prosperity of the Homeland, and U.S. strength at home and abroad. Some transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) are producing and trafficking large amounts of illicit drugs that are imperiling American lives and livelihoods. They are conducting other illegal activities that challenge U.S. security, such as human trafficking, cyber operations, money laundering, and inciting violence. U.S. citizens—at home and abroad—are also facing more diverse, complex, and decentralized terrorist threats. […] Finally, large-scale illegal immigration has strained local and national infrastructure and resources and enabled known or suspected terrorists to cross into the United States.
The report goes on to detail the trafficking of fentanyl and other illicit drugs across the US southern border and the symbiotic relationship among drug traffickers, human traffickers, gangs, transnational terrorists, and cyber criminals. The threats posed by these nonstate actors are clear and present, harming the health, physical, and financial security of Americans. The report names Mexico and Colombia as key manufacturing hubs and transit countries for drugs coming into the US, as well as China and to a lesser degree India, as sources of precursors and equipment for drug traffickers; interestingly, the unclassified report does not include references to Canada as a transit country dispute other public allegations by the Administration to this effect.
Since taking office, President Trump has taken historic action against South American TCOs, including signing an executive order designating Mexican cartels and transnational criminal organizations as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) and specially designated global terrorists, elevating them to the same level as ISIS or al-Qaida. The designation gives the Department of Justice more tools to target these criminal organizations and less red tape. President Trump has announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, citing drug trafficking and immigration, which he later paused, but are still in the planning. The US also deployed active-duty troops to the southern border.
Further, the Treasury Department now requires banks and money services businesses near the southern border to report cash transactions above $200 (the prior limit was $10,000) to crack down on money laundering. The new reporting criteria significantly increase compliance costs for affected businesses and will increase financial surveillance on Americans, foreigners, and businesses.
Major State Actors
According to the report:
Several major state actors present proximate and enduring threats to the United States and its interests in the world, challenging U.S. military and economic strength, regionally and globally. China stands out as the actor most capable of threatening U.S. interests globally, though it is also more cautious than Russia, Iran, and North Korea about risking its economic and diplomatic image in the world by being too aggressive and disruptive. Growing cooperation among these actors expands the threat, increasing the risk that should hostilities with one occur, it may draw in others.
China: While covering strategic matters of military and WMD threats, maritime flashpoints, space competition, and cyber threats, the 2025 report has new and/or expanded sections on Chinese economic, technology and biosecurity threats to the US and the world. Among the report conclusions in these sections, the IC judges that the PRC seeks to dominate global markets and strategic supply chains, limiting foreign competitors, and making other nations dependent on China. The report highlights China’s dominance in critical materials, global shipping, and resource access, including in the Arctic. On technology, the IC judges that the PRC seeks to surpass and/or displace the US, using a multifaceted, national-level strategy, for economic, political, and military gain. The report also warns that China’s approach to and role in global biological, medical, and other health-related global priorities present unique challenges to the US and the world.
The Trump Administration has moved aggressively to increase trade restrictions against China, particularly for high-tech and dual use civil-military sectors. Last week, the Trump Administrated added more than 50 Chinese companies to the export control list for allegedly seeking knowhow in supercomputing, AI and quantum technology for military purposes. The new head of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, Jeffrey Kessler, said in a late March townhall meeting that one of the agency’s highest priorities will be ramping up enforcement and penalties against Chinese companies diverting export-controlled technology to China.
President Trump signed an executive order on February 21 that calls for new restrictions on Chinese investments in American in sensitive sectors and on access to US talent and operations. Trump also seeks to expand restrictions on outbound investment in Chinese companies to include biotechnology, aerospace, advanced manufacturing, and other areas with potential links with China’s military. Trump also ordered a review to determine if adequate financial auditing standards are being upheld for Chinese companies, which if found deficient, could result in the delisting of hundreds of US-listed Chinese companies. Particularly at risk are variable interest entities, which the Trump Administration warned could unfairly limit the ownership rights and protections for US investors.
President Trump is reportedly soon to sign an executive order that would levy hefty port fees on China-made ships or vessels from fleets that include ships made in China, as part of a plan to revive US shipbuilding.
Russia: While the scope of the threat assessment on Russia tracks with the past year, the assessments have changed, particularly in relation to the Ukraine war, the net positive impact of the war on Russian military capabilities, plus the resiliency of the Russian economy and President Putin.
In short, the IC judges that Russia has seized the upper hand in the war and is on a path to accrue greater leverage to press Kyiv and Western backers to negotiate an end to the war that grants Moscow the concessions it seeks. Continuing the Russia-Ukraine war perpetuates strategic risks to the US of unintended escalation to large-scale war, the potential use of nuclear weapons, heightened insecurities among NATO allies, and a more emboldened China, North Korea, and Iran. Regardless of how and when the war ends, Russia’s current geopolitical, economic, military and domestic political trends underscore its resilience and enduring potential threat to US power, presence, and global interests.
The report notes that efforts to isolate and sanction Russia have accelerated its investments in alternative partnerships, notably with China, Iran, and North Korea, with Moscow using financial workarounds, trade re-orientation, and joining with others to press policies such as de-dollarization.
In a departure from the Biden administration’s outlook on the Russia-Ukraine war, which prioritized military support for Ukraine, this new assessment of the impacts of the conflict underlies the Trump administration’s strategy, which has focused more single-mindedly on ending the war. President Trump sees the war as the driver behind trends weakening US national security: the financial burden of supporting Ukraine and impact of the US deficit; growing alignment between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea; Russia’s growing confidence in his battlefield superiority, investment in asymmetric capabilities, and building out of Russia’s defense industrial base. The Trump Administration has strong-armed Kyiv into agreeing to ceasefire terms that fall short on security guarantees, marginalized Europe’s role in negotiations to maximize US power and is now pressing the Kremlin to the table, with a mix of carrots and sticks.
Trump’s post-war vision appears to include a rehabilitated Russia, reintegrated into the global economy, linked to the US for economic prosperity, undercutting alliances of convenience that emerged over the past three years while de-escalating US-Russian strategic tension.
Implications for Business
The 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment reframes security issues and risks that have long been part of the US threat matrix. The report signals that the Trump administration intends to adopt new approaches and initiatives to mitigate national security risks, some of which will directly impact operational, security, and compliance environments for businesses.
The “war” against transnational criminal organizations poses significant risks to businesses, including increased operational costs and the potential requirement to invest heavily in security measures if businesses are viewed as soft targets by criminal gangs seeking to extract costs from the US government. In Mexico and South America, TCOs can disrupt supply chains, target companies for cyber-attacks, and exploit vulnerabilities to launder money. Companies risk exposure to sanctions, other enforcement actions, and reputational if they are perceived to be involved in or benefit from TOC activities.
On China, Trump Administration measures are framed as national security protections and are unlikely to be open for negotiation in US-Chinese trade talks. US companies doing business with Chinese companies in critical sectors that are perceived as advancing Chinese military capabilities may risk new restrictions on potential business relationships, investments, and export permissions.
The US relationship with Russia is dynamic and could shift rapidly, for the better or worse. President Trump’s peace vision presents risks and opportunities, as sanctions are selectively lifted (likely at a different rate in the US and Europe), with political risks impacting re-entry into the Russian market for companies that exited under less than ideal terms. Or, if a peace agreement remains out of reach, the administration could double down on a policy to isolate and punish, with additional sectoral sanctions, secondary sanctions, and secondary tariffs to raise the costs to Russia’s enablers while restricting Russia’s ability to finance its war economy. It is likely that getting to peace will not be a straight line, increasing uncertainty and associated risks to business.
